Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for Sunday’s UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith event in Hamburg, Germany.
The Bloody Elbow team has submitted its picks for Sunday’s UFC Hamburg card in Germany, and the majority of us are going with Anthony Smith to deny Mauricio Rua a potential title shot vs. Daniel Cormier. As for the co-mian event, it’s a unanimous choice for Glover Teixeira over Corey Anderson.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Shogun Rua vs. Anthony Smith
Mookie Alexander: Shogun is less of a shot fighter than Rashad Evans and Hector Lombard, primarily on the basis that he’s actually been winning. On paper, he should probably stop Smith because he’s still a reasonably dangerous striker and Smith’s defense is still damn near absent. That said, Smith is such a random finishing threat and so big for the weight class that I can see Shogun having serious physical and athletic problems, and if he doesn’t strike first blood, Smith is going to find his chin and pounce for the stoppage victory. Cannot rule out Shogun just timing Smith repeatedly and largely dominating his short notice opponent, though. Anthony Smith by KO, round 2.
Victor Rodriguez: Shogun’s not totally done, as evidenced by his current win streak. Still doesn’t make me confident against a heavy hitter with decent range like Anthony Smith. Neither guy has a great chin, but it seems like Smith’s more likely to be caught being reckless while Shogun can get caught because of him being slower and more of a plodding fighter. Nothing about this fight will be comforting, especially if Shogun gets blasted. That’s the likely scenario, too. Still gonna go with the craftier veteran against the more impulsive newcomer, because at least Shogun can stay consistent with his output and draw Smith into counters. Shogun Whoo-aah by TKO, round 2.
Staff picking Shogun: Phil, Tim, Victor, Dayne
Staff picking Smith: Nick, Bissell, Mookie, Harry, Stephie
Glover Teixeira vs. Corey Anderson
Mookie Alexander: Yeah I can’t bring myself to pick Anderson for the upset. It’s not worth trusting his defense to hold up against Teixeira’s heavy hands, and I believe Teixeira is a good enough defensive wrestler to keep the fight standing. The best route to victory for Anderson is likely to emulate Phil Davis’ win vs. Glover, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to do that. Glover Teixeira by ground-and-pound TKO, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: This is one of those fights where there’s a clear path to victory for the younger fighter, and if he wins it will likely be something of a one-sided beating. On paper, Anderson’s footwork and takedown defense should insulate him from Teixeira’s plodding hooks and top game, but after the OSP fight I basically decided that there was no real point trusting Anderson to keep his eyes on the road and not open himself up to fight-ending offense at some point in a fight. Glover Teixeira by TKO, round 2.
Victor Rodriguez: Glover’s got the wrestling defense and better, sharper striking to give him the edge here. Anderson’s also prone to brain farts. Can’t trust him. Teixeira’s gonna bust up his face until it looks like present-day Udo Kier. Glover Teixeira by decision.
Staff picking Teixeira: Nick, Bissell, Mookie, Harry, Phil, Tim, Stephie, Victor, Dayne
Staff picking Anderson:
Vitor Miranda vs. Abu Azaitar
Phil Mackenzie: A bit like Danny Roberts down below, Miranda is a powerful, dynamic kickboxer who is a little vulnerable to pressure and not the most durable fighter in the world. However, whereas with Roberts it’s physical durability, with Miranda it seems to be mental, as he rarely recovers once the opponent starts putting it on him. His dubious past aside, Azaitar is a little less technical but throws in combination and can compete for long enough at Miranda’s favoured kicking range to push him back into the fence. Abu Azaitar by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Azaitar has talent, but Miranda’s disciplined enough to not get wild and work some kicks to keep the fight at favorable range. Miranda’s also durable enough, although his cardio might get him in trouble late. If it’s any consolation, his cardio seems better than Azaitar’s, just not by a dramatic degree. It won’t be pretty, and it’ll feel just as long as the Weimar Republic. Brazilian Lex Luthor be decision.
Staff picking Miranda: Nick, Bissell, Mookie, Harry, Stephie, Victor
Staff picking Azaitar: Tim, Phil, Dayne
Marcin Tybura vs. Stefan Struve
Mookie Alexander: Tybura is more well-rounded and I really can’t trust Struve to beat any top competition at this rate. Say what you want about Tybura not being incredibly exciting, but he’s a tough customer and can likely win this by grinding out “The Skyscraper.” Marcin Tybura by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: This could be a weirdly tough matchup for Tybura, whose main issue at heavyweight is that he lacks any kind of dynamic offense apart from a head kick. Struve’s issue is obviously that he is a giant target with no defense whatsoever. But tough matchup is also relative, and assumes that Struve is himself, and it’s hard to think of the last time when he looked any good whatsoever. If Arlovski can grind you out from top position, so can Tybura. Marcin Tybura by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Struve’s been putting more meat on his bones, is still strong and shows a bit more confidence as of late. Tybura isn’t a great athlete, and it takes him a while to find that opening to really do that damage he needs to get ahead. I don’t trust Tybura’s cardio or ability to get through and nullify the height and range advantage. His best bet is to somehow outmuscle Struve and pin him against the cage, and I’m not sure he can do that to 2018 Stefan. Hoping one of them walks out to David Hasselhoff. Remember him? Stefan Struve by decision.
Staff picking Tybura: Nick, Mookie, Phil, Stephie, Dayne
Staff picking Struve: Bissell, Harry, Tim, Victor
Danny Roberts vs. David Zawada
Phil Mackenzie: Danny Roberts issues have been fairly well-established by this point- he can be vulnerable to pressure, and he’s not tremendously durable. However, he’s offensively potent enough that he’ll likely have a place as an action fighter in the UFC for a while. Zawada reminds me a little of Emil Weber Meek: someone who is aggressive, tough and strong, and who will fight pretty much anywhere he can. He’s aggressive but not an effective pressure fighter, and while Roberts’ takedown defense is a concern (relying as he does on opportunistic submissions) on the feet Zawada should leave windows for Roberts to counter. Danny Roberts by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Against my better instincts, I’m gonna go with Zawada just based off the performances he had in KSW. Don’t ask. David Zawada by TKO.
Staff picking Roberts: Nick, Bissell, Mookie, Harry, Phil, Tim, Stephie, Dayne
Staff picking Zawada: Victor
Nasrat Haqparast vs. Marc Diakiese
Phil Mackenzie: The obvious actual main event of the card, this is a fascinating matchup between two young fighters who are absolutely brimming with talent in one of the most stacked divisions in the UFC. Diakiese has struggled to find his footing as an uber-athlete, getting trapped between flashy striking and inefficient but powerful wrestling. Haqparast may not be quite as physically overwhelming, but he seems like a natural technician who comes with an incredible pedigree: trained by Cordeiro and Zahabi, and invited to train with GSP for his comeback fight. Haqparast has a tendency to over-respond to attacks which may make him vulnerable to some of Diakiese’s off-beat stuff (running jabs into overhand, switch kicks etc) but overall he’s just the cleaner technician with a better idea of how to win fights.I was tremendously impressed with his performance against Marcin Held. Nasrat Haqparast by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Haqparast: Phil, Victor, Dayne
Staff picking Diakiese: Nick, Bissell, Mookie, Harry, Tim, Stephie
Nick Hein vs. Damir Hadzovic
Phil Mackenzie: Two not particularly large, not particularly dynamic lightweights go to… well, not war. Skirmish? Hadzovic is something of an anti-grappler brawler, and Hein is Hein, namely a low-pace outside counterpuncher with good takedown defense. I don’t think Hein is going to dip his head into any of Hadzovic’s knee or uppercut takedown counters, so I’ll pick him to win a tepid decision off a few shots which are just hard enough to scare Hadzovic off without actually hurting him very badly. Nick Hein by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: I’ve noted before that I’m likely alone in this, but I really like watching Hein fight. He’s got some funky performances with stretches of doing a lot of things right without being boring. He’s not setting the league on fire, but he’s constantly showing improvements. Nick Hein by decision.
Staff picking Hein: Nick, Mookie, Harry, Phil, Tim, Stephie, Victor, Dayne
Staff picking Hadzovic: Bissell
Emil Meek vs. Bartosz Fabinski
Phil Mackenzie: I was relatively impressed with how Meek performed against Usman. Clearly at a major technical wrestling disadvantage, he managed to stay in the fight until the third round on pure physicality, and given what a physical force Usman is himself, that’s no small feat. Fabinski is weird. He hasn’t fought since 2015, where he decisioned Hector Urbina with grinding clinch offense. So, as Dayne pointed out in his preview, this is basically a “you lose to a top tier grinder, but can you beat a lower-mid tier one?” question for Meek. And I have to assume that the answer is yes. Emil Weber Meek by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Meek: Nick, Bissell, Mookie, Harry, Phil, Tim, Stephie, Victor, Dayne
Staff picking Fabinski:
Khalid Taha vs. Nad Narimani
Phil Mackenzie: Nad Narimani is one of those athletic MMA natives who isn’t particularly great at any one thing, but is aggressive and reasonably athletic. He made his way to the UFC on the back of beating “the next Conor McGregor” Paddy Pimblett, by which point it was rather apparent that Pimblett was not the next Conor McGregor. Still, Narimani is a ballsy fighter, the kind that might have you shouting “Go, Nad!” were you so inclined. His best skillset is likely his ground and pound and top game. Taha is a similar fighter in terms of approach and general physique, but is more of a striker, with a touch more comfort in the pocket but also a recent loss to top position grappling. Experience and the style matchup say Nad Narimani by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Taha: Victor
Staff picking Narimani: Nick, Bissell, Mookie, Harry, Phil, Tim, Stephie, Dayne
Justin Ledet vs. Aleksandar Rakic
Phil Mackenzie: Ledet looked sort of terrible in his last fight, a slow-paced potshotting affair against Zu Anyanwu. He defaults to a counterpunching jab against aggression, and against someone who refused to lead predictably, he looked shockingly pedestrian. Will Ledet’s ceiling be raised down at light heavyweight? His hands have looked good for heavyweight, but what happens if he can fight someone who can strike at all? Rakic can strike a bit, and has an active lead hand himself, which he’s reasonably responsible about pulling back. Given that he doesn’t back himself into the cage like Ledet did, I feel I have to take a flyer on at least one of the heavier fights on this card, and this feels the more likely of the two. Aleksandar Rakic by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Raki? is a more composed striker with better technique and a more complete Muay Thai base. Ledet is tougher than a two dollar steak and has surprising handspeed with a willingness to go toe to toe with his opponent in hopes of hitting them hard enough to break down the Berlin Wall. He’ll find a way to make this hideous, but Raki? should find a way to stay busy and outpoint Ledet. Aleksandar Raki? by decision.
Staff picking Ledet: Nick, Bissell, Mookie, Harry, Tim, Stephie, Dayne
Staff picking Rakic: Phil, Victor
Davey Grant vs. Manny Bermudez
Phil Mackenzie: Grant is an interesting test for Bermudez: intensely aggressive, willing to take the fight anywhere and opportunistic. I was impressed by Bermudez against Morales- there were a few times when that fight could have slipped away from him, but he stayed tough and opportunistic and was instead the one to force the more experienced fighter to panic. Grant is something of a kill-or-be-killed submission grappler, so I suspect that he gets himself into trouble after being hurt on the feet. Manny Bermudez by submission, round 2
Victor Rodriguez: I could do these Germany jokes all day. I know they suck. That’s the point. It’s not exactly dadaism (5000?), but this is just sad and underwhelming at this point. That’s saying a lot, because I like these two. The live audience just got hoodwinked. Manny Bermudez by decision.
Staff picking Grant: Tim
Staff picking Bermudez: Nick, Bissell, Mookie, Harry, Phil, Stephie, Victor, Dayne
Jeremy Kimball vs. Darko Stosic
Phil Mackenzie: Stosic looks… OK. He’s a bricked-up, reasonably powerful but plodding kickboxer who has a surprisingly quick head kick. I’m still not sure if I understand Kimball at all. He’s just an unstructured, aggressive brawler. I am worried that Stosic is too slow. He was visibly leaden at heavyweight, and Kimball is not a slow light heavyweight. But, he’s not really a good one either. We’re talking a man who got RNCed by Chris Camozzi before he came to the UFC. I guess I have to pick Stosic, but I don’t really see a whole lot to get excited about if I’m honest. Darko Stosic by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Darko gonna pound him out like schnitzel. Death come quick, release me from the punishment that is this card. Darko Stosic by TKO.
Staff picking Kimball: Nick,
Staff picking Stosic: Bissell, Mookie, Harry, Phil, Tim, Stephie, Victor, Dayne
Damian Stasiak vs. Liu Pingyuan
Phil Mackenzie: Stasiak has undergone a Bochniakian transformation from a low-pace wrestle-karateka (you know what I mean) to a gritty, bite-down-on-the-mouthpiece fighter, and has struggled because… the people he’s been fighting are just really good? Limited tape on Pingyuan reveals a relatively unfocused fighter who struggles with takedowns, and that’s really Stasiak’s core competency when it comes down to it. Damian Stasiak by submission, round 1.
Victor Rodriguez: Pinguyan’s another one of those puzzling Chinese fighters that has a base that clearly led to MMA, but isn’t particularly great at it or any of the other elements to be a complete fighter. I’m just not impressed when you consider his opposition. Something something sauerkraut. I hate this goddamn fight. Damian Stasiak by submission.
Staff picking Stasiak: Nick, Bissell, Mookie, Harry, Phil, Tim, Stephie, Victor, Dayne
Staff picking Pingyuan: