Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Las Vegas mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., March 11, 2023) on ESPN+ from inside The Theater at Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas, Nevada, featuring a bantamweight main event between former division champion Petr Yan and streaking 135-pound contender Merab Dvalishvili, a five-round headliner with serious title implications for late 2023 and beyond.
Before we dive into the main and co-main events, which includes the heavyweight collision between Alexandr Romanov and Alexander Volkov, check out Patrick Stumberg’s breakdowns for the UFC Las Vegas preliminary card — spread across eight fights on the ESPN+ digital network — by clicking here and here. For the latest “Yan vs. Dvalishvili” odds and betting lines courtesy of our fiscal friends over at Draft Kings go here. In addition, in-house pro fighter Andrew Richardson covered the rest of the UFC Las Vegas main card right here.
Let’s talk shop.
135 lbs.: Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Petr “No Mercy” Yan
Record: 16-4 | Age: 30 | Betting line: -275
Wins: 7 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 8 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 3 DEC, 1 DQ
Height: 5’7“ | Reach: 67” | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.31 | Striking accuracy: 53%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.03 | Striking Defense: 59%
Takedown Average: 1.86 (56% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 90%
Current Ranking: No. 2 | Last fight: Split decision loss to Sean O’Malley
Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili
Record: 15-4 | Age: 32 | Betting line: +210
Wins: 3 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 11 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 5’6“ | Reach: 68” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.21 | Striking accuracy: 40%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.31 | Striking Defense: 58%
Takedown Average: 6.54 (40% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 78%
Current Ranking: No. 3 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Jose Aldo
Petr Yan is not aging well, at least in terms of his MMA career, and his record inside the Octagon has come under greater scrutiny in light of his recent woes. Prior to his first loss under the UFC banner, a disqualification against Aljamain Sterling at UFC 259, “No Mercy” rattled off seven straight wins. Sounds impressive on paper but it’s worth pointing out that six of those opponents are no longer competing for UFC.
I don’t want to diminish his victory over Jose Aldo but it’s also fair to say “Junior” was only mediocre at bantamweight, putting together a 3-3 record with zero finishes before parting ways with UFC late last year. And I’m not getting overly excited about dominant performances against the likes of Teruto Ishihara and Jin Soo Son. The point I’m trying to make is that Yan started to struggle when he got paired with the top half of the division, losing three of his last four and looking flat in the championship rounds of his Sterling rematch.
Yan is an outstanding striker with stingy takedown defense. His ability to keep the fight standing — as well as take it to the ground when he needs to — makes him a dangerous, unpredictable opponent. The counter to that is Yan can’t seem to manage the clock, or simply wastes too much time from bell-to-bell. It’s okay to give away the first round to figure out your opponent, like he did against Cory Sandhagen. It’s not okay if you don’t show up for the final two rounds, like he did against Sterling. Perhaps a greater sense of urgency would have also kept the Sean O’Malley split from escaping him. That could be a concern against Merab Dvalishvili if the fight drags on to the fourth and fifth round.
Dvalishvili will enter this fight with an advanced scouting report, having trained with Sterling for the “Funk Master’s” final “No Mercy” fight at UFC 273. “The Machine” had a little rougher start to his UFC career, coming out of the gate with back-to-back losses to Frankie Saenz and Ricky Simon. Since that early stumble, the Georgian has rattled off eight straight wins and like Yan, captured victories over John Dodson and Jose Aldo. Also like Yan, Dvalishvili had a relatively light schedule when measuring his strength of opposition. In addition, his only finish during that span came over the free-falling Marlon Moraes, who has now dropped five in a row — getting knocked out in all five losses.
Dvalishvili is an outstanding wrestler and has racked up double digit takedowns three times in his UFC career, most recently hitting 13 against Gustavo Lopez at UFC Vegas 2 in June 2020. What worries me about “The Machine’s” offense is that Dvalishvili was 0-16 on takedowns against Aldo, a troubling statistic when you consider Yan’s wrestling defense. More worrisome is the fact that Yan is a far better striker and his ability to stay upright may force Dvalishvili into a standup battle, a place few bantamweights want to be against a tactician like Yan. These were some of the same concerns raised for Aljamain Sterling and “Funk Master” still managed to grind out the victory. Considering Dvalishvili comes from the same camp, it’s not a stretch to think Yan — who can’t seem to catch a break from the judges — lays another egg. I’m just not sure that’s the kind of prediction I want to pin my hopes to when betting on this fight. The safe money says Yan stuffs enough takedowns and racks up timely points to secure a clear and comfortable lead after five rounds of back-and-forth action.
Prediction: Yan def. Dvalishvili by decision
265 lbs.: Alexander Volkov vs. Alexandr Romanov
Alexander “Drago” Volkov
Record: 35-10 | Age: 34 | Betting line: +130
Wins: 23 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 9 DEC | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 5 DEC
Height: 6’7“ | Reach: 80” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.88 | Striking accuracy: 57%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.04 | Striking Defense: 53%
Takedown Average: 0.51 (70% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 71%
Current Ranking: No. 8 | Last fight: Technical knockout win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Alexandr “King Kong” Romanov
Record: 16-1 | Age: 32 | Betting line: -150
Wins: 6 KO/TKO, 9 SUB, 1 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 6’2“ | Reach: 75” | Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.78 | Striking accuracy: 50%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 1.86 | Striking Defense: 48%
Takedown Average: 5.18 (62% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 20%
Current Ranking: No. 14 | Last fight: Majority decision loss to Marcin Tybura
Alexander Volkov enters this co-main event contest as the odds-on betting underdog, which I don’t understand. The towering Russian is coming off a technical knockout win over No. 9-ranked Jairzinho Rozenstruik at UFC Vegas 56. “Drago” has fought five of the Top 10 heavyweights in the world and holds knockout wins over the likes of Alistair Overeem and Fabricio Werdum, among others. By contrast, the No. 14-ranked Alexandr Romanov has only fought one opponent in the Top 10, Marcin Tybura, and lost a majority decision.
Volkov handily defeated Tybura at UFC 267.
That’s not to suggest Romanov is not a dangerous fighter. “King Kong” has 15 finishes in 16 wins, six by knockout and nine by submission. I am however, suggesting the Moldovan has yet to prove he can perform at the same level against ranked competition and he’s fighting a battle-tested heavyweight with a five-inch advantage in both height and reach. The big question here, as it is in so many fights, is how well Volkov will be able to defend the takedown. Romanov has already racked up a staggering 18 takedowns in six fights for UFC, though it should be noted he was outwrestled in a split decision win over Juan Espino at UFC Vegas 24 and Volkov — the winner of three performance bonuses — has been known to uncork the occasional takedown when the situation calls for it.
There are two ways this fight can play out. Volkov can keep his back off the fence and treat Romanov like a Moldovan whack-a-mole, or Romanov can spam takedowns until he drags “Drago” to the floor and makes the boo birds sing. Without seeing “King Kong” performing that same stunt against the upper echelon of the division, it’s hard to side with the latter.
Prediction: Volkov def. Romanov by decision
Get the rest of the UFC Las Vegas main card predictions right here.
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Las Vegas fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ preliminary card bouts at 3 p.m. ET, followed by the ESPN+ main card start time at 6 p.m. ET.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Las Vegas news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here. For the updated and finalized “Yan vs. Dvalishvili” fight card and ESPN+ line up click here.