Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight finishers Yair Rodriguez and Brian Ortega will rematch this weekend (Sat., Feb. 24, 2024) inside Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico at UFC Mexico City.
There’s unfinished business here, though the situation is odd. The pair first threw down in July 2022, and for most of a round, “Pantera” unleashed a can of whoop-ass on Ortega’s face, mid-section and lead leg. However, the bout ended in unsatisfactory fashion, as Ortega injured his shoulder yanking his way out of an armbar (watch highlights). Anyone who understands the mechanics of an armbar can tell you that’s a freak injury, so while Rodriguez justifiably got his hand raised, the matter didn’t feel settled. Rodriguez has found early success in some fights and struggled late previously, whereas Ortega has gotten beaten up early only to rally and score the finish himself — the bout was far from over.
It’s time to try this fan-friendly match up once more. Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:
Yair Rodriguez
Record: 15-4
Key Wins: Brian Ortega (UFC Long Island), Josh Emmett (UFC 284), Chan Sung Jung (UFC Fight Night 139), BJ Penn (UFC Fight Night 103), Dan Hooker (UFC 192), Jeremy Stephens (UFC on ESPN 6)
Key Losses: Alexander Volkanovski (UFC 290), Max Holloway (UFC Vegas 42), Frankie Edgar (UFC 211)
Keys to Victory: Rodriguez is one of the flashiest fighters in UFC history, yet it never feels like he’s forcing that aspect of his game. Who else is flowing beautifully into flying spin kicks and triangle chokes? “Pantera” can push a hard pace, too, even at elevation.
In the first fight, Rodriguez did really great work on the outside. After establishing the timing on his 1-2, Rodriguez started leading with his right, catching Ortega off-guard with his speed. He also split Ortega’s guard several times with nice dipping jabs, punishing the grappler’s pressure.
That’s all great work and should remain in the gameplan.
To expand upon that success, I would like to see more body and leg work. At this point, it’s well-established that Ortega is inhumanly tough. Max Holloway landed several 100 blows to the face, and Volkanovski drummed his head off the canvas like a basketball, yet Ortega remained undeterred.
If Rodriguez starts taking his right hand to the body more often, that will take an effect over time. Of course, Rodriguez should also be building on his excellent low calf kick, as well as the occasional shin-to-the-liver when opportunity emerges. Getting kicks caught may be a concern, but it is remarkable hard to catch a well-timed and full power “Pantera” left kick — there’s too much force and snap.
Brian Ortega
Record: 15-3
Key Wins: Chan Sung Jung (UFC Fight Island 6), Frankie Edgar (UFC 222), Cub Swanson (UFC Fight Night 123), Renato Moicano (UFC 214)
Key Losses: Alexander Volkanovski (UFC 266), Max Holloway (UFC 231), Yair Rodriguez (UFC Long Island)
Keys to Victory: It would be great if Ortega fought more often. He’s as entertaining as anyone else on the roster, routinely willing to throw himself into the fire until both men are exhausted, at which point the “T-City” Brazilian jiu-jitsu expertise tends to make itself known.
I actually liked Ortega’s approach in the first Rodriguez fight. He may have been taking shots, but the man understands how he wins fights. Pressuring Rodriguez is essential, and though his shoulder exploded moments later, he did complete a takedown late in the first round.
The big issue for Ortega came in that he was pressuring well, but failed to initiate many exchanges. He was trying to stalk and counter Rodriguez, but that’s a really difficult proposition against such a dynamic and unpredictable fighter. If instead Ortega comes forward with his own jab or 1-2, Rodriguez’s own counters tend to be wild punches. Those are the strikes Ortega should be looking to block/slip and counter!
Going first and third in exchanges should be the name of Ortega’s game on the feet. Then, at the earliest possible opportunity, get back to the takedown game.
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Bottom Line
It’s a great fight with title implications.
Ilia Topuria smoking Alexander Volkanovski (watch it) really opens up the Featherweight division. Most likely, the two rematch at some point, but there’s no clear timeline at the moment. Sean O’Malley also wants a 145-pound title shot, which feels outlandish to consider at the moment. Seeing as this is a co-main event between Top 5-ranked Featherweights, a title shot for the victor isn’t impossible …
Topuria, however, isn’t overly interested in fighting the more established contenders. I actually quite like his suggestion of putting the winner here against Movsar Evloev. That match up would absolutely produce a deserving contender, assuming the timeline all works out for the various parties mentioned.
At UFC Mexico City, Yair Rodriguez and Brian Ortega will throw down. Which man earns victory in the rematch?
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Mexico City fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN+) at 10 p.m. ET.
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