Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight kickboxers Anthony Pettis and Stephen Thompson will duel TONIGHT (Sat., March 23, 2019) from Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee.
There is some logic in Pettis’ decision to jump up to Welterweight. He has too many losses to top Lightweights to be considered a top contender there — plus, the division is massively log-jammed. Featherweight proved too drastic a cut for “Showtime.” Rather than stay stranded at 155 pounds, Pettis has chosen to role the dice in a big way. The recent results around the division have greatly aided Thompson’s position. With Tyron Woodley no longer the king, another Thompson title shot is now a possibility. However, “Wonderboy” has to get back in the win column first, which begins opposite “Showtime.”
Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:
Stephen Thompson
Record: 14-3
Key Wins: Rory MacDonald (UFC Fight Night 89), Johny Hendricks (UFC Fight Night 82), Jorge Masvidal (UFC 217), Robert Whittaker (UFC 178)
Key Losses: Tyron Woodley (UFC 211), Darren Till (UFC Fight Night 130), Matt Brown (UFC 145)
Keys to Victory: Thompson is one of the sport’s best Karate fighters. Gliding in-and-out of range and taking angles quickly, “Wonderboy” has proven incredibly elusive and sharp on the counter.
Against a smaller man looking to kickbox, Thompson should be in his wheelhouse — similar to the Masvidal victory. Pettis does not carry with him the raw power of Woodley or Till that forced Thompson to hesitate, meaning Thompson should feel a bit more open in letting his strikes fly.
In addition, that size advantage will be vital at distance. Both men likely to carefully manage their range and force their opponent to come up short, but that’s a much easier tactic for the longer man. Plus, Thompson’s side-on style of kicking extends his range further than Pettis’ favored round kicks.
In short, Thompson should find great success in landing from a distance his foe cannot match, and few are better at maintaining that sweet spot than “Wonderboy.”
Anthony Pettis
Record: 21-8
Key Wins: Benson Henderson (UFC 164, WEC 53), Gilbert Melendez (UFC 181), Donald Cerrone (UFC on FOX 6), Michael Chiesa (UFC 223), Charles Oliveira (UFC on FOX 21)
Key Losses: Rafael dos Anjos (UFC 185), Tony Ferguson (UFC 229), Edson Barboza (UFC 197), Max Holloway (UFC 206), Dustin Poirier (UFC Fight Night 120)
Keys to Victory: For better or worse, Pettis has consistently faced the absolute best fighters the world has to offer in the previous few years. The former champion is a slick Taekwondo black belt with brutal round kicks, and his submissions are exceptionally quick.
There’s a reason that Pettis is such a large underdog here. It’s not the most damning style match up possible for his Welterweight debut — that would be one of those suffocating wrestlers like Usman or Covington — but it’s also difficult to discover a path to victory for Pettis. At range, Pettis will be kicking with a bigger man who’s potentially better at kicking than him. Should Pettis try to pressure with his hands, that’s never been his style, and Thompson tends to thrive against such opponents.
Ultimately, Pettis has to keep Thompson pinned along the fence as much as possible. Thompson generally does a nice job of switching directions and angling off when faced with pressure (see his above technique highlight), but he’s never faced a man who can kick so powerfully from both sides like Pettis. If “Showtime” can use both the Southpaw left round kick and Orthodox right round kick to make the cage small, suddenly “Wonderboy” is less comfortable and his size advantage much less meaningful.
Bottom Line: It’s a weird fight, one that could be a beautiful display of kickboxing or something of a staring contest.
All the same, it’s a massively important fight for Thompson. “Wonderboy” once again has an open path to the title, but he needs to win a couple fights first. Now is absolutely not the time for a setback, as Thompson’s ideal 2019 would go something along the lines of: defeat Pettis, win a title eliminator over the summer, and face the victor of Usman-Covington before the end of the year.
Will it work out quite that neatly? Probably not, but all possible paths begin with Pettis tonight.
As for the former Lightweight champion, it’s hard to say what this fight means to him. Is it a one-off fight, intended simply to get Pettis a main event slot against a man unlikely to pressure him relentlessly or attempt to bully him with wrestling? Or is Pettis’ move to 170 pounds a more serious one, genuinely intended to revive Pettis’ status as a title threat?
Realistically, I expect the outcome of tonight’s scrap to determine that answer and Pettis’ fighting future.
For much more on this weekend’s UFC: “Nashville” event click here.
TONIGHT at UFC Fight Night 148, Anthony Pettis and Stephen Thompson will battle in the main event. Which man will earn the victory?