Paul Miller-USA TODAY Sports
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight strikers Rafael dos Anjos and Leon Edwards will clash TONIGHT (July 20, 2019) at UFC on ESPN 4 from inside AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas.
After his consecutive losses to a pair of nightmare wrestlers in Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington — the top-two fighters in the division right now — dos Anjos was widely counted out as a contender, entering his next bout with Kevin Lee as an underdog. Instead, the Brazilian put on a vintage performance, outlasting Lee’s early barrage before strangling him in the championship rounds. Meanwhile, Edwards has put together an excellent win streak, seven straight victories opposite tough competition. He’s been asking for a Top 5-ranked foe for a while now, and he’s finally been given the opportunity to break into the title mix.
This has all the makings of a great main event, so let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man.
Rafael dos Anjos
Record: 29-11
Key Wins: Robbie Lawler (UFC on FOX 26), Kevin Lee (UFC Fight Night 152), Neil Magny (UFC 215), Anthony Pettis (UFC 185), Ben Henderson (UFC Fight Night 49), Donald Cerrone (UFC on FOX 17, UFC Fight Night 27)
Key Losses: Kamaru Usman (TUF 28 Finale), Colby Covington (UFC 225), Eddie Alvarez (UFC Fight Night 90), Tony Ferguson (UFC Fight Night 98), Khabib Nurmagomedov (UFC on FOX 11)
Keys to Victory: “RDA” is a badass. The Brazilian has fought just about everyone who’s anyone at both Lightweight and Welterweight, proving himself an elite competitor over the last five or so years. Dos Anjos is a very well-rounded fighter, known for his aggressive Muay Thai and slick submission game.
This is likely to be a very competitive fight, which means whichever man is better able to implement his preferred method of fighting is very likely to be the victor. In dos Anjos’ case, what the Brazilian wants and what he does best is obvious: pressure.
Three straight fights saw dos Anjos forced to work from his back foot, and he lost two of them. Edwards, however, is not a nonstop grinding wrestler who’s going to constantly and annoyingly shoot every few seconds. He’s a patient striker himself, willing to lead or counter.
Dos Anjos must take advantage of the match up change and ensure he’s moving forward at all times. The Brazilian is simply so much more effective when leading — his kicks are harder, his combinations more powerful, and his takedown attempts more likely to succeed.
If “RDA” is consistently pressuring, he’s likely winning.
Leon Edwards
Record: 17-3
Key Victories: Donald Cerrone (UFC Fight Night 132), Vicente Luque (UFC Fight Night 107), Gunnar Nelson (UFC Fight Night 147), Albert Tumenov (UFC 204), Bryan Barberena (UFC Fight Night 115)
Key Losses: Kamaru Usman (UFC on FOX 17)
Keys to Victory: Edwards is an underrated and underappreciated talent. The slick Southpaw is a crafty and powerful striker, but his development of an excellent shot and Khabib-style top control have been pivotal to his success.
Realistically, Edwards is not going to match dos Anjos’ volume of punches thrown — it’s just not the patient Brit’s style. However, the pressuring man who throws a lot of punches is generally easy to hit, and Edwards is a damn good counter striker.
The major goal here for “Rocky” is to consistently land significant counter shots. Dos Anjos is a tough bastard, but he’s also a human being. If he’s eating hard left hands, jabs, and counter elbows whenever he steps forward, his volume will drop.
On a more specific note, Edwards has a very good jab and is facing a fellow Southpaw, increasing the important of the strike. Given his length, doubling and tripling up on the jab would be a wise move. Lastly, Edwards’ offensive wrestling is legitimately slick, so if he’s able to cut an angle as dos Anjos pursues and put the Brazilian on the fence, a takedown would not be a bad idea at all.
Bottom Line: The winner won’t receive a title shot, but he potentially sets himself up for a title eliminator.
Dos Anjos is definitely in the more difficult position of the two. His loss to Usman is too recent and was too dominant. Earning a rematch against “The Nigerian Nightmare” is simply unlikely — it would require a truly massive win streak with some epic wins. However, Welterweight is no easy strap to hang onto, so dos Anjos’ best chance is to rack up some wins and hope Usman is defeated.
On the other hand, Edwards was defeated by Usman in 2015 at the age of 24. More than that, it was a close fight in which Edwards gave a good account for himself. A little older and a little wiser, Edwards is a larger threat to Usman than many of the contenders — at least in my opinion. A win here won’t earn him that contest yet, but it definitely sets him up for a title eliminator, likely with Jorge Masvidal.
At UFC on ESPN 4, Rafael dos Anjos and Leon Edwards will battle in the main event. Which man leaves with his hand raised?