Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight elites Colby Covington and Robbie Lawler will clash TONIGHT (Aug. 3, 2019) at UFC on ESPN 5 from inside Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.
Nine victories in ten fights saw Covington rise from unknown prospect to interim champion, but Covington did not end up receiving his promised unification bout with Tyron Woodley. Luckily, Covington has beef with the current kingpin as well, and just one more victory should finally lead to a showdown between “Chaos” and Kamaru Usman. Robbie Lawler very nearly became the man to end Ben Askren’s undefeated streak when he slammed him on his face and dropped heavy elbows, but instead he wound up on the wrong side of a controversial loss. It’s been two years since Lawler’s last victory, which creates some uncertainty as to where “Ruthless” stands currently.
Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:
Colby Covington
Record: 14-1
Key Wins: Rafael dos Anjos (UFC 225), Demian Maia (UFC Fight Night 119), Dong Hyun Kim (UFC Fight Night 111), Bryan Barberena (UFC on FOX 22)
Key Losses: Warlley Alves (UFC 194)
Keys to Victory: Covington is a top-level grinder. The decorated collegiate wrestler has picked up the necessary skills on his feet to throw hard punches and kicks long enough to close distance, at which point he really suffocates his opponents with expert transitions.
Lawler has a history of hating two strategies: fighters that hang back and kick, and those that wrestle him to the mat. Covington can kick pretty damn hard and wrestle real well, so he should probably do both of those things.
Repeatedly.
Covington came at dos Anjos nonstop, and he ran into some left hands as a result. Aggression and pace should still be a weapon for Covington, but he doesn’t need to sprint into the pocket and create easy opportunities for Lawler to drop bombs. Instead, Covington can pressure forward and slam the lead leg or mid-section with kicks. If and when Lawler fires back, Covington can drop down and drive his foe into the fence.
Robbie Lawler
Record: 28-13 (1)
Key Wins: Rory MacDonald (UFC 189, UFC 167), Johny Hendricks (UFC 181), Carlos Condit (UFC 195), Matt Brown (UFC on FOX 12)
Key Losses: Tyron Woodley (UFC 201), Rafael dos Anjos (UFC on FOX 26), Johny Hendricks (UFC 171)
Keys to Victory: Lawler is one of the rare veterans to survive a decade of hard brawling. As a result, he developed into a more patient and technical opportunist, but he’s still always willing to bite down on his mouthpiece and trade hard.
Lawler knows what he has to do here: stop the takedown, punish the attempts, and knock Covington flat when he does finally gain the space to work. Of the three aspect of his strategy, perhaps the most important is punishing Covington’s attempts. “Chaos” is willing to take bad shots and transition until they succeed, but he’ll be less willing to play that game if his bad shot causes him to absorb a hard knee or a few Lawler punches.
Again, I would expect Covington to lean heavily on his kicks, and it’s important that Lawler doesn’t just allow those to land. Despite his aggressive nature, Lawler has an odd habit of allowing his opponent to kick at his legs without a response. Against Covington, that should be a great opportunity to fire a left down the middle.
At the very least, Lawler has to check or avoid those kicks, as he cannot let Covington find a safe place in the stand up.
Bottom Line: This bout determines who will receive the next shot at Kamaru Usman.
If Covington wins here, he’s next in line, and there should be no doubt. Covington has already earned his opportunity at the strap, so defeating a former champion in Lawler is an extra step that shouldn’t even be necessary. As such, it’s an incredibly risky fight for Covington.
Should Lawler upset “Chaos,” it seems quite likely that Jorge Masvidal will instead square off with “The Nigerian Nightmare.” In that case, Lawler would still be in great position to fight in a title eliminator next, likely with Leon Edwards. Unfortunately, this is a risky fight for Lawler as well, likely his last chance to defeat an elite foe without being pushed from the title mix.
At UFC on ESPN 5, Colby Covington and Robbie Lawler will go to war in the main event. Which man will have his hand raised?