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Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for Saturday’s UFC on ESPN: Poirier vs. Hooker card in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The BE team has made its predictions for UFC Vegas 4, and much to my surprise we are unanimous on Dustin Poirier over Dan Hooker in the main event. As for the co-main, it’s a clean sweep for Mike Perry over Mickey Gall. There are literally no other ranked fighters on this card outside of Poirier and Hooker.
Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker
Mookie Alexander: I dislike that we have unanimous agreement here because that’s just the perfect set-up for a Dan Hooker KO. Both fighters are awesome to watch and there’s no reason to believe this fight will disappoint. Hooker has genuinely improved and lest we forget he’s the last person to beat Gilbert Burns. His counterstriking is on point and those knees are devastating. However, Poirier is a better boxer and his work in the pocket is likely to wear Hooker down as the fight progresses. Poirier’s volume stays consistent over five rounds, whereas Hooker noticeably faded against Paul Felder and would likely fade again on Saturday. I would be surprised if we saw this fight have any extended grappling exchanges, but I’d favor Poirier there too. Both men will have their moments but Poirier is going to take over in the later rounds and Hooker is just going to accumulate too many shots. Dustin Poirier by TKO, round 5.
Phil Mackenzie: Hooker is on a decent streak, and there’s reasons to be concerned about where Poirier’s head is after that loss to Nurmagomedov. He’s always been a bit vulnerable in the early going to precision hitters, and Hooker is huge, durable and an accurate, dangerous counterpuncher. However, Hooker also has pretty bad defense past the first layer, and it seems like Poirier should just be able to draw out shots, force him into the fence and wallop him. Dustin Poirier by TKO, round 3.
Zane Simon: I think this probably looks a lot like the Hooker/Felder fight, but with a much busier opponent on the Felder side of the equation, and one who is a lot better about countering in combination. It’s a fight Hooker barely scraped out last time. I doubt he’s so lucky this time. Over 5 rounds, Poirier’s volume is absurd. Add to that his durability and power and even a decent low kicking game doesn’t make me feel confident Hooker can stem the tide. Dustin Poirier via TKO, round 2.
Staff picking Poirier: Phil, Stephie, Shak, Mookie, Zane
Staff picking Hooker:
Mickey Gall vs. Mike Perry
Mookie Alexander: The only reason to pick Gall is you think that Mike Perry will do something stupid to lose the fight. It’s not implausible but also let’s be real here: Mickey Gall has not one reasonably good win on his record. He is just over a year removed from losing to the shell of Diego Sanchez. Perry is going to absolutely smoke Gall in the standup and stop any of Mickey’s takedowns. Sound the alarm bells if Perry loses because it would be the worst one he’s ever had. Mike Perry by KO, round 1.
Phil Mackenzie: Take the “it’s a decent matchup but he doesn’t sound in a good place” caveat for Poirier and multiply it several times for Perry. Platinum seems to have made the ever-dubious choice of attempting to sculpt his latest girlfriend into a more compliant version of the last one, and the sense of organization and focus around his camp has followed suit. That being said, Mickey Gall has just not gotten much better over his time in the UFC? He’s not a great wrestler (certainly less so than, say, Jake Ellenberger or even Cowboy Oliveira) and is merely a decent offensive submission threat, and a wooden striker. Mike Perry by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: Mike Perry absolutely seems like he’s trying to do everything in his power to make sure he meets Mickey Gall on an even playing field. Getting rid of his coaching and replacing it with his girlfriend, letting Darren Till live inside his head, and just generally being willing to do the kinds of things that make me feel like Gall grabbing a random RNC isn’t out of the realm of possibility. But, those things aside. Perry hits harder, is incredibly tough, carries his power late, has a more natural striking arsenal, and Gall just isn’t a very good wrestler. Hard to pick against a guy when I feel like the toughest opponent he has is himself. Mike Perry via TKO, round 1
Staff picking Gall:
Staff picking Perry: Phil, Stephie, Shak, Mookie, Zane
Brendan Allen vs. Kyle Daukaus
Mookie Alexander: Allen is a good prospect with a lot of upside, and if this fight goes to the ground it’s going to be trouble for Daukaus dealing with his grappling. Brendan Allen by submission, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: Allen is the more proven commodity, but this does feel a little concerning. Daukaus is a bit clunky, but he’s massive and powerful enough that he might be able to outmuscle Allen’s aggressive grappling game. That being said, the clunk is just too much to overlook. Brendan Allen by submission, round 3.
Zane Simon: Daukaus seems like he works a lot harder at being a more technical fighter than Allen. But that also may be because he also doesn’t appear to be the kind of athlete that Allen is. He’s a more fluid striker with a decent pressure style he’s been clearly working on. But, the end result of that style is always to clinch up and start a scramble on the ground. It’s a place Allen thrives in, and I don’t think Daukaus is so naturally controlling that I can just assume he’ll win those battles. Brendan Allen by submission, Round 1.
Staff picking Allen: Phil, Stephie, Shak, Mookie, Zane
Staff picking Daukaus:
Gian Villante vs. Maurice Greene
Mookie Alexander: …Ok. Maurice Greene by split decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Gian Villante always guarantees a fight which feels both inexplicable and inevitable. He will clomp forward and he will low kick and he will throw a right hand, and he will continue to do this with the mindless consistency of automated farm machinery, until he wins or is knocked out. Getting finished by Michal Oleksiejczuk doesn’t speak great things about his durability, so I guess I have to pick the bigger and less shopworn man. Maurice Greene by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: I just have this feeling that the reason guy who has been so clearly heavyweight sized for so long doesn’t fight at 265 isn’t because he’s not big enough or strong enough, but just because he’s not confident enough in his ability to perform against other huge tough dudes. Dudes that might be even a bit bigger and tougher than he is. That certainly seemed to be the case against OSP, taking on Ben Rothwell. Greene isn’t anywhere near Rothwell when it comes to veteran savvy or raw grit, but I just wonder if Villante isn’t going to get stuck trying to range kickbox him all fight and lose an ugly ugly decision because he’s unwilling to step inside and really trade shots. Maurice Greene by decision.
Staff picking Villante:
Staff picking Greene: Phil, Stephie, Shak, Mookie, Zane
Sean Woodson vs. Julian Erosa
Mookie Alexander: Erosa has a long reach that he consistently fails to use effectively. Woodson is more skilled and likely to piece him up and stop him. Sean Woodson by TKO, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: Erosa is primarily made to mop up on aggressive grapplers without super functional wrestling games (eg Paddy Pimblett in Cage Warriors, a fight he somehow lost in an absolutely egregious robbery). Woodson isn’t that – while he might have issues with someone who can come close to matching his frame at featherweight, Woodson is simply way more skilled in terms of footwork and defense than Juicy J. It looks like a showcase. Sean Woodson by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: The performance Woodson put together against Kyle Bochniak was an absolute masterclass in controlled consistency. Always cutting the angle, always ready on the counter. Prepared to meet aggression with aggression and to fill space with careful volume from range. No slip ups, no big errors. Absolutely on his A game at all times. To be frank, it’s just not something that many MMA strikers can pull off. Erosa is fun and aggressive and loves to trade in the pocket. But his style doesn’t have a lot of defense to it, and when he’s stepped inside at the UFC level, he’s gotten plugged hard. Woodson seems like he’ll probably just be a step ahead all fight. Sean Woodson by decision.
Staff picking Woodson: Phil, Stephie, Shak, Mookie, Zane
Staff picking Erosa:
Luis Pena vs. Khama Worthy
Mookie Alexander: Pena should be able to outgrapple Worthy but his striking is so unpolished that I think it’s very possible that Worthy just lights him up. Great nickname matchup between Violent Bob Ross and The Deathstar. Luis Pena by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: I don’t know. Worthy isn’t much of a round-winning threat, but I just have a sneaking suspicion that Pena doesn’t have the volume necessary to make his game work. If you throw weird stuff at a counterpuncher, you need to throw enough weird stuff that they get overloaded. I think Worthy might be a pretty rough style matchup for that reason. Not recommending that anyone follows me into this pick though. Khama Worthy by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Worthy has a nice clean counterpunching style out of a Muay Thai base. But, while he’s gotten plenty of finishes fighting that way over the years, it’s not one that tends to lead to many big one-shot knockouts, or to controlling the pace and place of the fight that often. Fighters that want to get in on his hips often can. And guys that want to trade with him often get plenty of chances to do so (even if it doesn’t always work out for them). Pena doesn’t have the defense or combination work built into his kickboxing to just hang with Worthy, but his range will probably challenge Worthy early and take focus off Pena’s tendency to clinch up and pull opponents into the scramble. From there, I think Pena’s control grappling is just a little too good, and Worthy’s offense just a little too low volume, for me not to pick Pena to get the win. Luis Pena by decision.
Staff picking Pena: Stephie, Shak, Mookie, Zane
Staff picking Worthy: Phil
Rest of the card
Philipe Lins vs. Tanner Boser
Staff picking Lins: Phil, Stephie, Shak, Mookie, Zane
Staff picking Boser:
Takashi Sato vs. Jason Witt
Staff picking Sato: Phil, Stephie, Shak, Mookie, Zane
Staff picking Witt:
Jordan Griffin vs. Youssef Zalal
Staff picking Griffin: Phil, Stephie, Shak, Mookie
Staff picking Zalal: Zane
Jinh Yu Frey vs. Kay Hansen
Staff picking Frey: Phil, Stephie, Shak, Zane
Staff picking Hansen: Mookie