The UFC’s return to big FOX is upon us and they’re bringing a fight that could headline a pay-per-view card, but putting it on free television instead. The top two active bantamweights on the planet will meet again for supremacy on a card that features a number of other contender fights in most of the lighter weight divisions.
Will Dillashaw reign supreme again or is Barao going to get the belt back? I answer these questions and more with my predictions for Saturday’s fights.
What: UFC on FOX 16: Dillashaw vs. Barao 2
Where: United Center, Chicago, Illinois
When: Saturday, the four-fight Fight Pass card starts at 4:15 p.m. ET, the four-fight FOX undercard starts at 6 p.m. and the four-fight FOX main card kicks off 8 p.m.
T.J. Dillashaw vs. Renan Barao
In re-watching the first fight, it just seems like Dillashaw and Duane Ludwig had perfectly read and prepared for Barao’s attacks. They knew him better than he knew himself and had an entire arsenal of responses ready. Barao was just a sitting duck. The key is, can Barao make new adjustments and change the way he competes in some respects to throw Dillashaw off? I doubt it. Dillashaw will control range because of his takedown threat. Either he’s allowed to kick on the outside or he’ll force Barao into boxing range. From there, Dillashaw has been shown to be susceptible to getting hit if he stays in the pocket too long, but he showed a lot of movement and angles from that range the last time he fought Barao. There’s also the takedown threat once they meet in closer quarters for the American.
Barao’s got a big enough punch to hurt Dillashaw if he can bait an exchange and maybe he can make thorough adjustments, but I just don’t find him winning the most probable outcome.
Pick: Dillashaw
Eye’s well rounded, but I’m really liking how Tate’s game is coming along under Robert Follis’ direction. The strategy is getting better and interweaving of different forms of offense much cleaner. I also generally like Tate’s pressure and wrestling to put Tate on the defensive. I don’t think Tate dominates en route to a stoppage (although anything is possible), but between better use of control positions and more patient offense when striking, I like her chances.
Pick: Tate
Well, this one’s going to be insane. If you have a pick for Barboza, I take no issue with it. It’s not at all difficult to cobble together a case for the guy. His leg kicks are utterly devastating, he packs a huge punch, his speed is blinding and so on and so on. Barboza is a terror. That said, Felder seems unintimidated in the pocket, blends hand-and-feet combinations seamlessly, and most importantly, he makes quick adjustments with better creativity than most. It’s not just that he substitutes in one conventional attack for another when the original isn’t working. It’s that he adjusts with the unexpected. For a guy like Barboza who is accommodating in terms of being willing to strike against a guy like Felder who isn’t as powerful but sneakier, that could badly backfire.
Pick: Felder
Gomi still packs a big punch and Lauzon’s been in some grueling fights over a long, distinguished career, but I still like the American’s chances. Gomi’s defensive wrestling isn’t what it once was and Lauzon’s ability to quick weave in submissions from a huge variety of positions is too much for Gomi to handle.
Pick: Lauzon
From the preliminary card:
Gian Villante def. Tom Lawlor
Jim Miller def. Danny Castillo
Kenny Robertson def. Ben Saunders
Eddie Wineland def. Bryan Caraway
Daron Cruickshank def. James Krause
Ramsey Nijem def. Andrew Holbrook
Elizabeth Phillips def. Jessamyn Duke
Zak Cummings def. Dominique Steele