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UFC on FOX 18 ‘Prelims:’ FOX Sports 1 undercard preview and predictions, Pt. 2
More fights are coming to Fight Pass and FOX Sports 1 this weekend (Sat., Jan. 30, 2016) when UFC on FOX 18: “Johnson vs. Bader” kicks off from Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. MMAmania.com’s Patrick Stumberg continues the UFC on FOX 18 “Prelims” party with the second (and final) installment of a two-part under card preview series.
Let’s get ready to “Rumble!”
Two big, powerful Light Heavyweight contenders will collide this Saturday evening (Jan. 30, 2016) as Anthony Johnson faces Ryan Bader in the main event of UFC on FOX 18 live from Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.
The FOX Sports 1-televised main card will also feature an excellent Heavyweight showdown between surging veterans Josh Barnett and Ben Rothwell, as well as dynamic prospects Jimmie Rivera and Sage Northcutt squaring off with dangerous finishers Iuri Alcantara and Bryan Barberena, respectively.
The bulk of the “Prelims” undercard will take place on FOX Sports 1 (to check out the “Prelims” portion click here), so let’s see what’s in store for The Station Formerly Known As Speed.
170 lbs.: Tarec Saffiedine vs. Jake Ellenberger
Tarec Saffiedine (15-4) — the final Strikeforce Welterweight champion — began his UFC career by breaking down Korean slugger Hyun Gyu Lim with savage leg kicks for his fifth consecutive victory. This set him up for a showdown with Rory MacDonald, who handed the Belgian his first stoppage loss early in the third round.
This will be his first fight since, an injury layoff of 15 months.
Jake Ellenberger (30-10) earned a much-needed win in Feb. 2015, choking out Josh Koscheck and snapping a three-fight losing streak. “The Juggernaut” could not maintain the momentum, as he suffered a wheel kick knockout loss to Stephen Thompson on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 21 Finale.
He has knocked out 18 opponents in his professional career.
Ellenberger’s an odd case. His punching technique is unquestionably better than it used to be, but he isn’t hurting people like before. He doesn’t overextend with wild strikes anymore, but gets taken down with far greater ease. It’s like he can either be an unstoppable monster for one round and awful for the rest … or mediocre for all three.
Whatever the case, this one definitely favors Saffiedine.
“The Sponge” — when he’s actually fighting and not recovering from his latest injury misadventure — is one of the division’s better kickboxers and has deceptively good wrestling. Barring an early bomb from Ellenberger, Saffiedine has the skills to pick Ellenberger with kicks from the outside and shut down any attempt to bring it to the floor.
Ellenberger’s slide continues as Saffiedine takes a wide decision.
Prediction: Saffiedine via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira
Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-1) run on the TUF: “Nations” came to an end on the Finale, where he dropped a decision to countryman Chad Laprise. He’s since gone undefeated (3-0), most recently grinding his way past Tony Sims in Aug. 2015.
He has submitted six professional opponents, five of them via rear-naked choke.
Brazil’s Carlos Diego Ferreira (11-2) turned heads in his first two UFC appearances by submitting Colton Smith and knocking out Ramsey Nijem, positioning himself as a potential contender at 155 pounds. His momentum slowed, however, as a result of a decision loss to Beneil Dariush and brutal knockout defeat to Dustin Poirier.
He enters the fight as a late replacement for TUF: “Brazil 4” competitor Joaquim “Netto BJJ” Silva.
It’s worth remembering that, despite his recent struggles, Ferreira is a phenomenal grappler. Even Dariush — despite an excellent grappling track record — avoided extended engagements on the mat. Though this presents an issue for Aubin-Mercier on paper, Ferreira’s lack of wrestling will likely prove his undoing once again.
If the fight hits the ground, it will be on the Canadian’s terms. If he doesn’t like what he finds down there, he’s content to control the fight against the cage. Neither man has a real edge in the striking, but only one of them has the threat of takedowns dangling over his head.
A finish isn’t terribly likely, so expect a full 15 minutes of clinch control and occasional takedowns from Aubin-Mercier.
Prediction: Aubin-Mercier via unanimous decision
185 lbs.: Kevin Casey vs. Rafael Natal
A three-fight win streak earned Kevin Casey (9-3) the RFA middleweight title and booked his return to UFC, where he defeated Bubba Bush in a fight later overturned because of a failed drug test. Following his suspension, he earned a decision over Ildemar Alcantara before an eye poke cut short his bout with Antonio Carlos Jr. in Dec. 2015.
“King” has stopped six opponents, three each by knockout and submission.
A 5-1 streak earned Rafael Natal (20-6-1) a headlining spot on UFC Fight Night 31: “Fight for the Troops 3,” where he ran afoul of a Tim Kennedy left hook. A decision loss to Ed Herman followed, but he’s since rebounded with three straight wins.
The 33-year-old has submitted eight professional opponents and knocked out another three.
I just don’t get Natal. I can’t tell if he’s a good striker or a bad striker, a good wrestler or a crap wrestler. I don’t know how he wins. This angers me.
Casey’s a little easier for me to wrap my head around. He’s an excellent Brazilian jiu-jitsu player with solid power and solid wrestling, all backed up by tremendous physical strength. His big issue is cardio, though he seemed to have that covered against Alcantara. This could be because Alcantara didn’t really make him work, but Natal isn’t exactly a pace-pusher in his own right.
Casey strikes me as just a little bit better in the striking and more likely to stay on top should they exchange on the mat. Expect either a mid-round technical knockout stoppage or wide decision.
Prediction: Casey via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Dustin Ortiz vs. Wilson Reis
Dustin Ortiz (15-4) bounced back from his loss to John Moraga by taking out top prospects Ray Borg and Justin Scoggins, but could not overcome veteran Joseph Benavidez in their Nov. 2014 showdown. He fought just once in 2015, mauling Willie Gates en route to a third-round stoppage.
He has stopped 10 opponents, six via form of knockout.
Wilson Reis (19-6), a veteran of Bellator MMA, made the drop to Flyweight after a narrow loss to Iuri Alcantara at UFC Fight Night 36, defeating Joby Sanchez and Scott Jorgensen in his next two bouts. Last May, he took on fellow jiu-jitsu ace Jussier da Silva, who took two rounds from Reis to earn a unanimous decision win.
He has submitted nine opponents, all by form of choke.
This ought to be fun as hell. Both of these guys are terrific scramblers who should be more than happy to engage in the grappling. While Reis is the more credentialed Brazilian jiu-jitsu player, I have to favor Ortiz’s wrestling and relentless pace.
Ortiz has the defensive grappling to survive Reis’s efforts off of his back and on the feet, while Reis isn’t durable enough to put his much-improved striking to use. Ortiz will stay in his face all night, going to work with dirty boxing and blows in transition. Reis can nullify the worst of it, but likely won’t over enough in return to avoid the decision loss.
Prediction: Ortiz via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: George Sullivan vs. Alexander Yakovlev
The Octagon debut of George Sullivan (17-4) was an upset Roufusport-trained prospect Mike “Biggie” Rhodes, after which he lived up to his “Silencer” nickname by knocking out Igor Araujo. His win streak was stopped thanks to Tim Means, but he re-entered the win column last July with a decision over Dominic Waters.
He has scored 11 wins via form of knockout, including four of his last six.
A win over Paul Daley in 2013 booked Alexander Yakovlev’s (22-6-1) ticket to UFC, though the M-1 veteran got off to a rough start with losses to Demian Maia and Nico Musoke. This prompted a drop to Lightweight, where he dropped and outclassed Gray Maynard for a decision win.
He owns eight wins each by knockout and submission.
Yakovlev is another guy who’s hard to pin down. He’s obviously physically strong and knows how to wrestle, but his takedowns against Musoke appeared totally powerless. His striking is an afterthought at times, and his dropping of Maynard seems more a product of Gray’s catastrophic decline than anything else.
Sullivan is by far the bigger hitter and the better striking technician — the only question is whether he’ll be able to bring that to use. I believe he does. That’s because Yakovlev’s likely too durable to stop with strikes, but I don’t expect him to have much luck at all bringing down Sullivan.
“The Silencer” sprawls and brawls his way to a unanimous decision.
Prediction: Sullivan via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Alex Caceres vs. Masio Fullen
A 1-3 start to Alex Caceres’ (10-8)’ UFC career gave way to a five-fight unbeaten streak, capped off by a last-second submission of Sergio Pettis at UFC on FOX 10. He is currently riding a three-fight losing streak, including a 21-second knockout defeat to Francisco Rivera his last time out.
This will be his first fight at Featherweight since 2011.
Though Mexico’s Masio Fullen (10-5) fell in TUF: “Latin America” quarterfinals, he survived a knockdown on the Finale to take a decision over Colombia’s Alex Torres. This past June, he faced Finnish up-and-comer Makwan Amirkhani, who tapped him with a rear-naked choke less than two minutes in.
He has eight stoppage wins, five via submission.
I’m not convinced Cacares’ issues can be solved by a little less weight cutting; he’s an excellent grappler who can’t make people grapple with him. He can more than hold his own against the likes of Kyung Ho Kang and Sergio Pettis, who will eagerly bring him down, but when he’s got an opponent who’s not so inclined, he’s left with a flashy but overall mediocre striking game.
That said, Fullen just isn’t all that good. He’s working out of a solid camp in Alliance MMA, true, but hasn’t demonstrated the skills necessary to exploit Caceres’ deficiencies (obvious though they may be). Expect Caceres to potshot his way to a decision victory, perhaps snagging a late submission if Fullen tries to bring it south.
I recognize that I’m picking a lot of decisions, but you know what they say: Be pessimistic and the only surprises will be happy ones.
Prediction: Caceres via unanimous decision
UFC 196 may be coming apart at the seams, but at least we’ve got this to look forward to.
More fights are coming to Fight Pass and FOX Sports 1 this weekend (Sat., Jan. 30, 2016) when UFC on FOX 18: “Johnson vs. Bader” kicks off from Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. MMAmania.com’s Patrick Stumberg continues the UFC on FOX 18 “Prelims” party with the second (and final) installment of a two-part under card preview series.
Let’s get ready to “Rumble!”
Two big, powerful Light Heavyweight contenders will collide this Saturday evening (Jan. 30, 2016) as Anthony Johnson faces Ryan Bader in the main event of UFC on FOX 18 live from Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.
The FOX Sports 1-televised main card will also feature an excellent Heavyweight showdown between surging veterans Josh Barnett and Ben Rothwell, as well as dynamic prospects Jimmie Rivera and Sage Northcutt squaring off with dangerous finishers Iuri Alcantara and Bryan Barberena, respectively.
The bulk of the “Prelims” undercard will take place on FOX Sports 1 (to check out the “Prelims” portion click here), so let’s see what’s in store for The Station Formerly Known As Speed.
170 lbs.: Tarec Saffiedine vs. Jake Ellenberger
Tarec Saffiedine (15-4) — the final Strikeforce Welterweight champion — began his UFC career by breaking down Korean slugger Hyun Gyu Lim with savage leg kicks for his fifth consecutive victory. This set him up for a showdown with Rory MacDonald, who handed the Belgian his first stoppage loss early in the third round.
This will be his first fight since, an injury layoff of 15 months.
Jake Ellenberger (30-10) earned a much-needed win in Feb. 2015, choking out Josh Koscheck and snapping a three-fight losing streak. “The Juggernaut” could not maintain the momentum, as he suffered a wheel kick knockout loss to Stephen Thompson on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 21 Finale.
He has knocked out 18 opponents in his professional career.
Ellenberger’s an odd case. His punching technique is unquestionably better than it used to be, but he isn’t hurting people like before. He doesn’t overextend with wild strikes anymore, but gets taken down with far greater ease. It’s like he can either be an unstoppable monster for one round and awful for the rest … or mediocre for all three.
Whatever the case, this one definitely favors Saffiedine.
“The Sponge” — when he’s actually fighting and not recovering from his latest injury misadventure — is one of the division’s better kickboxers and has deceptively good wrestling. Barring an early bomb from Ellenberger, Saffiedine has the skills to pick Ellenberger with kicks from the outside and shut down any attempt to bring it to the floor.
Ellenberger’s slide continues as Saffiedine takes a wide decision.
Prediction: Saffiedine via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira
Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-1) run on the TUF: “Nations” came to an end on the Finale, where he dropped a decision to countryman Chad Laprise. He’s since gone undefeated (3-0), most recently grinding his way past Tony Sims in Aug. 2015.
He has submitted six professional opponents, five of them via rear-naked choke.
Brazil’s Carlos Diego Ferreira (11-2) turned heads in his first two UFC appearances by submitting Colton Smith and knocking out Ramsey Nijem, positioning himself as a potential contender at 155 pounds. His momentum slowed, however, as a result of a decision loss to Beneil Dariush and brutal knockout defeat to Dustin Poirier.
He enters the fight as a late replacement for TUF: “Brazil 4” competitor Joaquim “Netto BJJ” Silva.
It’s worth remembering that, despite his recent struggles, Ferreira is a phenomenal grappler. Even Dariush — despite an excellent grappling track record — avoided extended engagements on the mat. Though this presents an issue for Aubin-Mercier on paper, Ferreira’s lack of wrestling will likely prove his undoing once again.
If the fight hits the ground, it will be on the Canadian’s terms. If he doesn’t like what he finds down there, he’s content to control the fight against the cage. Neither man has a real edge in the striking, but only one of them has the threat of takedowns dangling over his head.
A finish isn’t terribly likely, so expect a full 15 minutes of clinch control and occasional takedowns from Aubin-Mercier.
Prediction: Aubin-Mercier via unanimous decision
185 lbs.: Kevin Casey vs. Rafael Natal
A three-fight win streak earned Kevin Casey (9-3) the RFA middleweight title and booked his return to UFC, where he defeated Bubba Bush in a fight later overturned because of a failed drug test. Following his suspension, he earned a decision over Ildemar Alcantara before an eye poke cut short his bout with Antonio Carlos Jr. in Dec. 2015.
“King” has stopped six opponents, three each by knockout and submission.
A 5-1 streak earned Rafael Natal (20-6-1) a headlining spot on UFC Fight Night 31: “Fight for the Troops 3,” where he ran afoul of a Tim Kennedy left hook. A decision loss to Ed Herman followed, but he’s since rebounded with three straight wins.
The 33-year-old has submitted eight professional opponents and knocked out another three.
I just don’t get Natal. I can’t tell if he’s a good striker or a bad striker, a good wrestler or a crap wrestler. I don’t know how he wins. This angers me.
Casey’s a little easier for me to wrap my head around. He’s an excellent Brazilian jiu-jitsu player with solid power and solid wrestling, all backed up by tremendous physical strength. His big issue is cardio, though he seemed to have that covered against Alcantara. This could be because Alcantara didn’t really make him work, but Natal isn’t exactly a pace-pusher in his own right.
Casey strikes me as just a little bit better in the striking and more likely to stay on top should they exchange on the mat. Expect either a mid-round technical knockout stoppage or wide decision.
Prediction: Casey via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Dustin Ortiz vs. Wilson Reis
Dustin Ortiz (15-4) bounced back from his loss to John Moraga by taking out top prospects Ray Borg and Justin Scoggins, but could not overcome veteran Joseph Benavidez in their Nov. 2014 showdown. He fought just once in 2015, mauling Willie Gates en route to a third-round stoppage.
He has stopped 10 opponents, six via form of knockout.
Wilson Reis (19-6), a veteran of Bellator MMA, made the drop to Flyweight after a narrow loss to Iuri Alcantara at UFC Fight Night 36, defeating Joby Sanchez and Scott Jorgensen in his next two bouts. Last May, he took on fellow jiu-jitsu ace Jussier da Silva, who took two rounds from Reis to earn a unanimous decision win.
He has submitted nine opponents, all by form of choke.
This ought to be fun as hell. Both of these guys are terrific scramblers who should be more than happy to engage in the grappling. While Reis is the more credentialed Brazilian jiu-jitsu player, I have to favor Ortiz’s wrestling and relentless pace.
Ortiz has the defensive grappling to survive Reis’s efforts off of his back and on the feet, while Reis isn’t durable enough to put his much-improved striking to use. Ortiz will stay in his face all night, going to work with dirty boxing and blows in transition. Reis can nullify the worst of it, but likely won’t over enough in return to avoid the decision loss.
Prediction: Ortiz via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: George Sullivan vs. Alexander Yakovlev
The Octagon debut of George Sullivan (17-4) was an upset Roufusport-trained prospect Mike “Biggie” Rhodes, after which he lived up to his “Silencer” nickname by knocking out Igor Araujo. His win streak was stopped thanks to Tim Means, but he re-entered the win column last July with a decision over Dominic Waters.
He has scored 11 wins via form of knockout, including four of his last six.
A win over Paul Daley in 2013 booked Alexander Yakovlev’s (22-6-1) ticket to UFC, though the M-1 veteran got off to a rough start with losses to Demian Maia and Nico Musoke. This prompted a drop to Lightweight, where he dropped and outclassed Gray Maynard for a decision win.
He owns eight wins each by knockout and submission.
Yakovlev is another guy who’s hard to pin down. He’s obviously physically strong and knows how to wrestle, but his takedowns against Musoke appeared totally powerless. His striking is an afterthought at times, and his dropping of Maynard seems more a product of Gray’s catastrophic decline than anything else.
Sullivan is by far the bigger hitter and the better striking technician — the only question is whether he’ll be able to bring that to use. I believe he does. That’s because Yakovlev’s likely too durable to stop with strikes, but I don’t expect him to have much luck at all bringing down Sullivan.
“The Silencer” sprawls and brawls his way to a unanimous decision.
Prediction: Sullivan via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Alex Caceres vs. Masio Fullen
A 1-3 start to Alex Caceres’ (10-8)’ UFC career gave way to a five-fight unbeaten streak, capped off by a last-second submission of Sergio Pettis at UFC on FOX 10. He is currently riding a three-fight losing streak, including a 21-second knockout defeat to Francisco Rivera his last time out.
This will be his first fight at Featherweight since 2011.
Though Mexico’s Masio Fullen (10-5) fell in TUF: “Latin America” quarterfinals, he survived a knockdown on the Finale to take a decision over Colombia’s Alex Torres. This past June, he faced Finnish up-and-comer Makwan Amirkhani, who tapped him with a rear-naked choke less than two minutes in.
He has eight stoppage wins, five via submission.
I’m not convinced Cacares’ issues can be solved by a little less weight cutting; he’s an excellent grappler who can’t make people grapple with him. He can more than hold his own against the likes of Kyung Ho Kang and Sergio Pettis, who will eagerly bring him down, but when he’s got an opponent who’s not so inclined, he’s left with a flashy but overall mediocre striking game.
That said, Fullen just isn’t all that good. He’s working out of a solid camp in Alliance MMA, true, but hasn’t demonstrated the skills necessary to exploit Caceres’ deficiencies (obvious though they may be). Expect Caceres to potshot his way to a decision victory, perhaps snagging a late submission if Fullen tries to bring it south.
I recognize that I’m picking a lot of decisions, but you know what they say: Be pessimistic and the only surprises will be happy ones.
Prediction: Caceres via unanimous decision
UFC 196 may be coming apart at the seams, but at least we’ve got this to look forward to.
