Bloody Elbow’s complete coverage of UFC on FOX 19 in Tampa, Florida at the Amalie Arena. Light Heavyweight Glover Teixeira takes on Rashad Evans. Rose Namajunas vs. Tecia Torres, John Dodson, and Khabib Nurmagomedov making his long awaited return round out the rest of the evening.
Lots of lots of fighters passing the wikipedia test dual this April 16, 2016 at the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida.
The Line Up
Preliminary Card (Fox)
Lightweight Beneil Dariush vs. Michael Chiesa
Women’s Bantamweight Bethe Correia vs. Raquel Pennington
Welterweight Court McGee vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
Lightweight Drew Dober vs. Islam Makhachev
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Bantamweight John Dodson vs. Manvel Gamburyan
Welterweight Randy Brown vs. Michael Graves
Middleweight Oluwale Bamgbose vs. Cezar Ferreira
Welterweight Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Omari Akhmedov
The Odds
Beneil Dariush -170 Michael Chiesa +150
Bethe Correia +175 Raquel Pennington -210
Court McGee +135 Santiago Ponzinibbio -155
John Dodson -550 Manny Gamburyan +425
Michael Graves -105 Randy Brown -115
Drew Dober +165 Islam Makhachev -190
Cezar Ferreira +155 Oluwale Bamgbose -175
Elizeu Zaleski +130 Omari Akhmedov -150
The Rundown
Lightweight Beneil Dariush vs. Michael Chiesa
Dariush borders on being a blue chip prospect. He has excellent, fluid grappling to compliment a striking game that used to be one dimensional but has progressed towards being threatening. He had no problem hanging with Michael Johnson on the feet, and Johnson is one of the best pure boxers in the division. Meanwhile, Chiesa is a fighter with the cover of a blue chip prospect but not the pages. He’s the kind of journeyman who is more dangerous than efficient. He did, however, score a great win in his last outing against Jim Miller.
Dariush is the clear favorite for me. His striking is much more deliberate than Chiesa, who is much more impulsive, never really taking advantage of his reach the way he should. However, the real kicker is Beneil’s ground game. He does great work slipping in hooks, or hands for leverage on the ground, and moves deftly in the transition. Chiesa is good for pockets of offense, but Dariush’s calm, cool, and collected pressure from all facets will be the rule of octagon law this weekend.
Women’s Bantamweight Bethe Correia vs. Raquel Pennington
It’s been awhile since the world has seen Bethe awkardly jump around the octagon before getting slept by Ronda Rousey. She’s facing a tough slinging Raquel Pennington, who is coming off a fun win over Jessica Andrade. In a way, this fight is pretty good for Pennington. She’ll be considered the underdog despite the fact that Correia ran through some of the four horsewomen like a full course meal. Which means nothing. Off the top of my head, I can’t think of a fighter with a worse quality of competition record leading up to their title shot.
Behind the criticism though is a fighter with a good understanding of boxing craft. She’s not fast, or powerful despite being marketed as such, but she puts together timely combinations, and stays active. Pennington, meanwhile has a pretty stiff right hand. She’s not a specialist, but some of her punches have the quality of being a specialist, which is much more than I can say for Bethe. I think Bethe is a little bit better than her laterals indicate, but not much more.
Welterweight Court McGee vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
Court McGee is basically Matt Brown, Pepsi Clear. He’s destined for a limited time on the shelf. However, while he’s here, he’s worth appreciating. His style is just a patchwork of existing archetypes. In the end, he brings nothing new to the table, but he has a presence that is underrated. McGee kind of does everything. While he’s a plodding striker, he puts together offense with aplomb, and fights urgently when he needs to. Ponzinibbio is a hard charging more puncher than boxer mixed martial artist.
He’s got a massive right hand that can easily get to Court’s chin. McGee has limited head movement, so a knockout isn’t out of the question. Thus far, he’s only lost a heavy top control wrestler, and a legitimate striking specialist in Lorenz Larkin. McGee barely falls somewhere in between. If he’s there all three rounds, I wouldn’t be surprised, but this fight favors the more dynamic fighter.
Lightweight Drew Dober vs. Islam Makhachev
Former victim of awesomely bad refereeing Drew Dober takes on the slick-ish Islam Makhachev. Makhachev is coming off a KO loss to Adriano Martins. He’s a decent combination puncher despite the outcome, which just happens to have very little power. He makes up for that with a quality ground game that is setup by said striking. Dober is your garden variety garden vegetable of a fighter. He’s not that bad for your health, but you never know when the company that produces him gets around standard regulations, and salmonella slips into your body. He got a gift of a win over Jamie Varner after passing an unconscious man’s guard. Islam has the grappling edge, and generally has a more dynamic game.
Bantamweight John Dodson vs. Manvel Gamburyan
What a setup bout. Manny has actually rattled off two wins in his last two, which is a little shocking given his limitations. It wasn’t that long ago when he was considered octagon battle fodder. He’s been rewarded with a bout against a man that just fought for the flyweight title. Granted, Dodson moving up in weight will be a talking point, but Dodson isn’t losing speed, and if he isn’t losing his speed, he’s not losing his power. As usual, Gamburyan’s limitations become pronounced when he’s forced to fight his opponent’s fight. He has no way of dictating pace or rhythm if he can’t get it to the ground. He’s improved a little on the feet, but not enough to be anything other than a speed bag with legs against elite strikers. Dodson isn’t perfect, but his punctuated equilibrium striking will prove effective against Manvel’s Darwinian stalling.
Welterweight Randy Brown vs. Michael Graves
Brown fought a successful debut against the wild brawling of Matt Dwyer with slick punch exits, and expert clinch control. He’s still a raw 25 year old striker, but ‘raw’ doesn’t mean ‘not technical’. He’s got plenty of technique packaged into his wiry frame. He just hasn’t really had a chance to synthesize all facets of his game into not just efficiency, but economy. Graves doesn’t have the kind of close quarter combat to make Brown sweat, and with his head movement, will have the edge on the feet. The reason Graves make this close is the way his boxing is built for durability as opposed to Brown’s flexibility. Graves is probably a bit more technical at this point in their career as well. The kicker is Brown’s reach. The man they call ‘Rude Boy’ is massive for the division, which should amplify the efficiency of his knees in particular.
Middleweight Oluwale Bamgbose vs. Cezar Ferreira
I had no idea Mutante was still in the UFC. I don’t think Ferreira is a bad fighter. But after getting knocked out at MW, going to WW thinking it’d be easier and the getting knocked out, he’s back up to MW again for basic survival. I guess the writing was always on the wall when you think about it. “Belfort’s protege” is only a few steps above “Kimbo’s protege” in that neither have great minds for the game. No offense to Vitor, but I think the young dinosaur is probably spending as much time quoting the synoptic gospels as he is teaching Cezar range awareness, and punch mechnics. Anyway, Mutante’s problem is that no coach ever really identified his strengths, so he’s in no man’s land trying to impose his physical will wherever the fight takes him. Bamgbose understands his strengths, on the other hand, which is why he’ll get slept against if he thinks he can just trade as he wishes against the Holy War Angel. I don’t think he will, as Ferreira is actually good when he’s not taking chances on the feet. Between Belfort’s exclamations, and Bamgbose’s nickname, I’m only just now realizing how violently religious this fight projects to be. In that case, I have to pick the guy who is more likely to skip confession. Ferreira it is…
Welterweight Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Omari Akhmedov
Elizeu “Capoeira” is a fighter with a great chance to beat Omari if he decides to keep it standing. He won’t, obviously. He’s got good wide punches in combination and sharp left kicks to the body. His problem is that his striking is perfect for a high movement, lateral striker. Unfortunately he’s neither high in movement, and doesn’t move laterally. For that reason his offense is way more limited than it actually is, which helps explain how Dalby contained him. Akhmedov, like his countrymen, takes a simple game and sharpens it with blades. He’s got some crisp, wide angle punches, and like every other Master of Sport, has a dynamic offensive grappling game. Tough fight for both, but Omari should be able to limit Santos’ movement more than usual.
Predictions
Dariush by RNC, round 2.
Pennington by TKO, round 2.
Ponzinibbio by Decision.
Makhechev by RNC, round 3.
Dodson by KO, round 1.
Brown by Decision.
Ferreira by RNC, round 2.
Akhmedov by Decision.