Phil and David break down everything you need to know about Josh Barnett vs. Ben Rothwell for UFX on Fox in Newark, and everything you don’t about what this fight means for a zombie apocalypse heavyweight landscape.
A heavyweight battle that doesn’t have just the potential to deliver co mains UFC on Fox this January 30, 2016 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.
Josh Barnett-Ben Rothwell
Single sentence summary:
Phil: Puroresu meets Professor Chaos
David: Where the Metal isn’t supported by the Fuzz.
Stats?
Josh “The Warmaster” Barnett 34-7
Odds: -140
“Big” Ben Rothwell 35-9
Odds: +120
History lesson / introduction to the fighters
Phil: It was a long, long time ago that Josh Barnett was announcing that he, a 19-year-old kid, was going to be the next UFC champion. He’s run the gamut from upstart to villain to a kind of fan-favourite since then. Bolt-thrower, Magic the Gathering and all.
David: Barnett is the definitely the “tap to add catch wrestling” type. With his 5/6 stats, and comes into play ability from any fight type, his durability is kind of iconic at this point. Barnett’s no bolt thrower, but he’s definitely quite the pugilism planeswalker.
Phil: Big Ben was part of the second or third tier of UFC prospects in an era which seemed like it was heralding a new dawn at heavyweight. As it turned out, that bright light on the horizon more like a nuclear bomb than a new day, and now the division’s a post-apocalyptic hellhole filled with shambling mutants and shell-shocked survivors clinging to some semblance of life. Destruction is a single step away for everyone in a bleak and weird world where there’s a serious argument to be made that Ben Rothwell is a more relevant heavyweight than Junior Dos Santos.
David: Is there only one Bible left in this world too? I feel like your highly literate description still isn’t accurate enough to illustrate this Tardigrade killing landscape.
What are the stakes?
Phil: Ha ha ha ha ha.
David: This is definitely less obscure than your Nick Thompson reference.
Although I’d admit it went over my head at first. I thought you were just mocking the stakes of any heavyweight fight where the athletes are always injured, and only the injuries walk the earth.
Phil: Oh, I’m definitely mocking the idea of stakes for this fight. The Rothwell clip is just a bonus. I’d suggest “winner something something title shot”, but it’s heavyweight, and rational outcomes don’t exist. The winner going on to a #1 contender’s fight is possible, but then so is Tim Silvia coming back for a baffling run to the title, or half the division spontaneously combusting.
Where do they want it?
Phil: Barnett’s area of specialization has changed somewhat, moving from submission fighting towards the clinch. This makes sense- takedowns are increasingly hard to get reliably in the *cough ahem* “modern” UFC, and clinch fighting is a crucial transitional step earlier. Offensively, Barnett is one of the best clinch fighters in the UFC, constantly shifting grips, with a focus on wrist control and crossfacing, manipulating limbs in order to hit knees, uppercuts and elbows. His stand-up was never a great strength, and has been almost non-existent in the UFC, but he’s still a good athlete for the class, and throws a decent array of head and body kicks. His jab is primarily a range-finder and distraction to get him into the clinch, a la Velasquez or Rousey. On the floor, he still has that catch-wrestling base.
David: Barnett has always reminded me of a more vanilla Big Nog. He never gets as much play from fans for his durability, but the guy is Ford tough. That durability allows his greatest strengths to be amplified during fights because they tend to go the distance. His ground has endured for its bottom up philosophy; working with what isn’t there. He doesn’t have great striking, or even truly great wrestling, but by improving each aspect enough to be efficient, his grappling flourishes. He’s an intelligent fighter with incredible fight vision who might have built a better history for himself if he wasn’t courageous enough to sweep the LOUD NOISES from Dana White off his bolt thrower shirts.
Phil: Rothwell’s standup is oddly somewhat similar to Anthony Johnson’s. Both utilize a kind of blind man’s buff, moving forward with hands out and palms down. They parry strikes on the way in, and pat with one hand to determine where the opponent is, and strike with the second. Rothwell is obviously far more clunky and upright than Rumble, but it’s a good approach for capitalizing on his own ridiculous durability and power, because he’s going to get hit but he’s going to come back with more. Grappling-wise, he’s been fairly difficult to take down, and can occasionally hit something like the reactive guillotine he used against Mitrione. Back in the day, he was a bit more of a classic kickboxer, flashing out far more kicks and with a dangerous Thai plumm. Hasn’t gone back to that well for a while, but it’s worth noting that it’s there.
David: Rothwell’s agility is what allows him to persist. Beneath his komondor chest is a heart of Hoost. I don’t know what he’s someone with potential to take the crown with his kickboxing strategies. But it’s more believable than prior heavyweight champions. And I sometimes suspect that even Fabricio Werdum could have trouble against Rothwell. He fights the way you imagine as a child that a heavyweight fighter would scrap; destroying small buildings in their wake, efficiently but clumsily inflicting violence on his opponent.
Insight from past fights?
Phil: The Gonzaga fight was a while ago, but presents some troubling issues for Big Ben. The problem with the hand-heavy style he uses is that it inherently meets takedown attempts head-on: he can hurt opponents as they come in (and indeed wants to), but it’s something of an all-in strategy. Napao couldn’t take Rothwell down at first, but was able to use a single-leg to drive him back into the cage. Cain did something similar, but it’s Cain and that’s how he wins all his fights, so it’s not particularly insightful. Regardless, if Barnett gets significant time with Rothwell up against the cage, he can likely bust him up. I’m also not convinced by Big Ben’s sub defense at all- aside from the Gonzaga guillotine, he also almost got armbarred by Mark Hunt in an absolutely atrocious fight.
David: I don’t take a whole lot of stock into Barnett’s loss to Travis Browne. The finish happened far too quickly in such an awkward position for me to really extrapolate trends out of it. Rothwell doesn’t have that type of piercing and sudden violence Brown can inflict, but I do wonder at what point Barnett’s wealth of fight experience will catch up to him. He’s never taken a ton of damage, but he has been in some absolute wars, and is 38 to boot. Normally I would say that goes double for Rothwell, but I’m pretty sure that Ben is part Cerberus.
X-Factors?
Phil: Rothwell is 34, which is sprightly for a heavyweight. Barnett is only four years older, but his body has yo-yo’d through a few physical changes over the years, and he just seems older and more shopworn than Rothwell does. Essentially, Rothwell looks like he’s peaking right now, and Barnett is likely on the downwards slope. Rothwell’s mindset is an interesting one- Jeremy Botter’s excellent piece on Big Ben indicates that his underwhelming early UFC career might have been at least partially due to a kind of social anxiety. It might explain why he puzzlingly appeared to look about 30% slower when he hit the big stage.
David: If Barnett fighting with Peyronie’s Disease is any indication, who knows what A & P struggles he’s currently experiencing.
Prognostication:
Phil: Rothwell is on a very surprising streak at the moment, and his confidence seems absolutely unshakeable. That’s a dangerous combination. If this fight plays out at boxing range, I like the younger and more dangerous striker to pull out the win and perhaps put Barnett away. However, Barnett doesn’t just hold big advantages in the clinch, but is the more active kicker, and has always been pretty decent at following a gameplan. Josh Barnett by unanimous decision.
David: Barnett doesn’t fare well at range. He doesn’t throw big, hard punches, and even though he’s pretty technical, he’s never really parlayed that technique into forward momentum. I could easily see him grinding Rothwell down with his usual smarts and vision, but the laugh from Hades has me convinced his punishing style will get to Barnett first. Ben Rothwell by TKO, round 3.