155 lbs: Clay Guida vs. Shannon Gugerty
Odds: ( Guida / Gugerty )
In the opening bout of the evening, frenetic wrestler Clay “The Carpenter” Guida will look to halt his two-fight losing streak against tough competitor Shannon Gugerty, who will be trying to push his Octagon record past the .500 mark. With rumors of BJ Penn moving up to the Welterweight division, the Lightweight title picture might be wide open pretty soon, so a win here is necessary for both guys, not only to position themselves for a run up the rankings, but quite possibly to remain employed by the UFC.
Gugerty, who began his professional career with a win over future WEC star Cub Swanson, is an effective grappler who has finished 75% of his victories with a submission. Despite his dangerous submission attack, though, Gugerty is also rather vulnerable to being submitted himself, and lost to both Spencer Fisher and Terry Etim, neither of whom are renowned for their amazing jiu-jitsu, by submission. His standup is mediocre at best, and his wrestling is not excellent either.
Guida, one of the most recognizable fighters on the UFC roster because of his wild mop of curly hair and ring entrances reminiscent of Animal from Muppet Babies, has become a mainstay in the Lightweight division with his powerful wrestling, frantic pace, and super-aggressive boxing. His standup is not excellent, but he comes forward with so much determination that it is hard for opponents to deal with at times. Obviously, Guida’s best tools are his wrestling and his cardio, which allow him to push fights for the entire duration without any letup. Guida’s problems begin to arise when he can’t impose his will on his opponents. If he can’t dictate the pace of the fight and when it goes to the ground, he tends to flounder. Against Gugerty, though, Guida will have the huge advantage in wrestling, so that should be an issue.
Put simply, Gugerty is overmatched in this one. Guida will outwork him on the feet, and Gugerty’s wrestling is nowhere near good enough to prevent Guida from taking him down basically at will. Expect Guida to control this fight easily, doing damage from the top position and completely overwhelming Gugerty.
Prediction: Clay “The Carpenter” Guida via unanimous decision.
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