The first live UFC event broadcasted on Versus takes place Sunday, March 21st in Broomfield, Colorado. UFC On Versus 1 features a Light Heavyweight main event pitting Brandon Vera against Jon Jones. In the co-main event, Brazilian Jiu Jitsu ace Gabriel Gonzaga takes on Brazilian punch you in the face ace Junior dos Santos.
As always, I will only cover which fights have betting value. UFC On Versus 1 gives us MMA bettors a range of interesting options. If you have reviewed MMAMoneyLine’s Pros’ Picks for UFC On Versus 1, you already know that this card is a bit lopsided. 7 out of 11 fights are clean sweeps (100% for one fighter). On the other hand, 3 out of the 4 fights that aren’t clean sweeps are practically coin flips. Here is where MMAMoneyLine sees the value in UFC On Versus 1: Vera VS. Jones
Junior dos Santos VS. Gabriel Gonzaga
The main arc in the build up to this fight is whether Gabriel Gonzaga can get Junior dos Santos to the ground, and what Junior can subsequently do there. Both of these Brazilians have huge power on the feet, with dos Santos having the edge in technique. Both guys have dropped fighters in an instant, using sound technique or otherwise.
In the Gonzaga/Carwin fight, Napao was able to land a hard cross to Carwin’s face that dropped him and broke his nose. Shane Carwin used his wrestling in reverse and was able to catch Gonzaga with an equally as hard (if not harder) shot to end the fight. Remember two things about this fight: don’t discount a guy’s jaw because he got knocked out by Shane Carwin and don’t think Junior dos Santos is a Carwin-caliber wrestler.
If Gonzaga can clinch with dos Santos and use his size and strength to take him down or even wear him out, the fight tips in his favor. We don’t know exactly what dos Santos is made of on the mat because we haven’t seen him there, but he is a BJJ brown belt. Regardless, he’s not going to be as skilled as Gabriel Gonzaga even if he is far better than anyone thinks.
Don’t think this is an easy win for Gonzaga by any means. Cigano is one of the deadliest strikers in the UFC’s Heavyweight division, and has destroyed two elite level strikers in his 4 UFC fights. If Gonzaga thinks its a good idea to put his grappling on the backburner, his chin in trouble.
This fight is a lot closer than the odds suggest. However, Gonzaga has a tendency to forget his BJJ and gas early in fights. Because of these two points, plus the old adage of “every fight starts on its feet”, I like Junior dos Santos and his striking ability as the fight goes on.
My pick: Junior dos Santos via TKO late in the 2nd
Betting play: Although I believe dos Santos takes this fight about 65% of the time, Gonzaga is the clear bet here. Some sports books have Gonzaga under 30% to win, which is way off in my opinion. Gonzaga is the bigger fighter and if this fight hits the ground, it drastically changes. MMAMoneyLine recommends a conservative underdog play on Gabriel Gonzaga at +235 on Bookmaker.
James Irvin VS. Alessio Sakara
I’ll be honest, I’ve been looking forward to James Irvin’s return. As unbiased as a reputable journalist or webmaster should be, I like James Irvin. He is always involved in exciting fights (for good and bad reasons), owns up to his mistakes without making excuses and is a straight shootin’ type of guy.
With that being said, I think the UFC is doing him a pretty big favor here. Alessio Sakara is the perfect opponent for James Irvin right now for 3 reasons: he has no chin, he’s an out and out striker and this is Irvin’s first fight at Middleweight. Irvin has big time power that is still pretty fearsome even if he’s lost a bit with the weight cut. He won’t have to worry about takedown defense either (c’mon, it’s Alessio Sakara). But perhaps most importantly, the “Irvin’s gonna gas early because of the weight cut” or the “Irvin’s knees aren’t going to hold up” lines of reasoning don’t apply here. The odds on 5Dimes of this fight going into the third round are +174…and that’s probably generous.
This fight is going to be quick and violent. If Chris Leben could get Sakara to fold up, James Irvin (a converted Heavyweight) should have the power to do so as well. Irvin also has that added incentive of showing his appreciation to Zuffa and co. for putting him back in a main card slot after an embarrassing loss and a positive drug test. I feel good about this one.
My pick: James Irvin via KO (superman punch) in the first
Betting play: Because of a few question marks, I’m going to temper my bet amount slightly. However, MMAMoneyLine still likes a moderate bet on Irvin at -110 on 5Dimes. The longer you wait to place this bet, the better. A lot of money has been coming in on Sakara and there is a good chance that Irvin’s odds might improve.
Clay Guida VS. Shannon Gugerty
Clay Guida, a “Fight Of The Night” machine, finds himself on the UFC On Versus 1 undercard against Shannon Gugerty. Guida has two strengths: insane cardio and relentless wrestling. He wins fights by attrition, doing more than the other guy to get a decision victory. I’m not sure how well that strategy is going to work against Shannon Gugerty.
Gugerty has been pretty lukewarm in the UFC thus far, going 2-2 all by way of the submission. He is a long and powerful striker with good wrestling and jiu jitsu. Guida is actually a pretty good matchup for Gugerty. Gugerty has a clear advantage standing up, competitive wrestling and no worries about his major weakness, submission defense, against a non-threat in Guida. As far as the mental game goes, it must be a tough pill for Guida to swallow to be put back on the pre-lims against a thus far average fighter.
There’s a good chance that Guida does what he does best and get a workman’s like decision via raw, athletic talent. However, Gugerty is being underrated here. Don’t be surprised if we’re in for another close decision at the end of this exciting bout.
My pick: Clay Guida via split decision
Betting play: Underdog special of the night is Gugerty. At +335, he is absolutely a guy who could decision or submit Guida. MMAMoneyLine recommends a small flier on Shannon Gugerty at +335 on SportBet.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Jones/TKO/3
dos Santos/KO/2
Kongo/TKO/2
Irvin/KO/1
Schaub/SUB/1
Guida/Split Decision
Howard/Unanimous Decision
Pierce/Unanimous Decision
Marshall/Unanimous Decision
Ludwig/TKO/2
Brilz/Unanimous Decision
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
Gonzaga – .75 u. at +235
Irvin – 1.5 u at -110
Gugerty – .20 u at +335