UFC On Versus 2 Predictions

UFC On Versus 2 – Jones VS. Matyusheno takes place Sunday, August 1st in San Diego.  The main event will feature Jon Jones’ toughest test of his career as he faces grizzled Belarussian veteran Vladimir Matyushenko.  Also appearing on this card is a pivotal Middleweight fight between Yushin Okami and Mark Munoz. Without further adieu, […]

UFC On Versus 2 – Jones VS. Matyusheno takes place Sunday, August 1st in San Diego.  The main event will feature Jon Jones’ toughest test of his career as he faces grizzled Belarussian veteran Vladimir Matyushenko.  Also appearing on this card is a pivotal Middleweight fight between Yushin Okami and Mark Munoz.

Without further adieu, here are myself and Mike Hammersmith‘s best bets for tonight’s UFC On Versus card.  Make sure to check out the Pros Picks as well!

Jon JonesMike Hammersmith (-560 on SportBet)

The UFC never pretended to be fair in their match-making; showing definite favor towards some fighters, and mercilessly disposing of others, and with this in mind, it’s fairly obvious which camp Jon Jones is in. Having gained instant stardom with his upset victory over Andre Gusmao, and his wild arsenal of spinning strikes and five-point Greco-Roman throws, Jones has had a tailor-made path to the top of the division.

His next opponent is the gritty veteran Vladimir Matyushenko, whom stands as one of the several striker/wrestlers Jones has faced, and whom should prove to be an easy opponent to train for. This fight really does come down to training too, as the aging Matyushenko has started to show his age in his fights way back to his last matches IFL and comes into this fight with a predictable game plan and the wrong set of skills to deal with Jones. With Jones having trained for, fought, and defeated guys like Jake O’Brien and Matt Hamill, he’s essentially already worked on the blue print to beat Matyushenko, and comes into this fight a heavy favorite in my book.

Matyushenko doesn’t have the reach or fine technical skills to out-strike Jones, and with his speed gone, can never hope to shoot from outside Jones 84″ reach and catch a meaningful takedown. This fight is built to give Jones more experience and move him closer to the title picture, and while the payout is less than grand, a hearty bet at -560  is easy money.

 

John HowardMike Hammersmith (+150 on SportsBet)

Some may say he’s lucky to be undefeated in the UFC, but none can deny the talent of John “Doomsday” Howard. Having taken two split decision wins and delivered two KOs in his time inside the cage, Howard is making his main card debut after toiling in the dark matches, and will do so against another highly exciting fighter in Jake Ellenberger.
Both men have real KO power, fast transitions, and well-developed mat-work, with Howard having an advantage working off his back, while Ellenberger is likely the better striker of the two. When it comes down to it, I’d give a slight edge to Howard based on Ellenberger’s weakness working off his back, combined with Howard’s strong takedown skills. Sportbooks seem to be over-valuing Ellenberger here, making a small wager on Howard at +150 a good payout for a coin-flip fight.

 

Igor PokrajacMike Hammersmith (+155 on Bookmaker)

It’s rare to see a fighter given a third opportunity in the UFC after going 0-2, but anyone who’s watched Igor Pokrajac’s appearances will know why. A sturdy wrestler with a natural talent on the feet, Pokrajac gave as good as he got in his fights with both Vladimir Matyushenko and James Te Huna, coming up just short on the scorecards, despite having both men in trouble in their bouts.
He’ll now be brought in against backsliding fighter James Irvin, who is also coming off of two losses, having only fought twice in the last two years. Irvin has had issues with everything from injury to failing drug tests to disastrous weight-cuts, and comes into this fight with little to offer except his incredible punching power. Punching power is the great equalizer, and when both men have it and are willing to trade, you end up with a very even fight. With that in mind, Pokrajac comes into this bout at +155 and makes for the best bet on the card, in my mind, for payout to risk.

 

Note:  For my picks, I’m going to be giving a bit of an abbreviated version.  Here are the main points for my three best picks.
 
 
Yushin Okami MMAMoneyLine (-185 on Bodog)

Mark Munoz has been incredibly inconsistent, and has shown weakness in fights against Kendall Grove, Matt Hamill and Nick Catone.  While Munoz has high level wrestling, he hasn’t used it well.  Okami has better MMA-centric grappling and more technical striking.  These to factors, in addition to Okami’s experience will allow him to expose the holes in Munoz’s still-developing MMA game en route to a decision victory.  Throw a decent sized bet down on Okami over at Bodog.

 
Brian StannMMAMoneyLine (+140 on SportsBet)

If MMA betting has taught me one valuable lesson, its not to bet on someone coming off an injury.  While a healthy Mike Massenzio would probably be a slight favorite over Brian Stann, that is clearly not the case here.  Massenzio hasn’t fought in 2 years and is getting some unfair respect over a guy who lost to Phil Davis (editor’s note:  everyone loses to Phil Davis).  Stann’s improving game is the polar opposite of Massenzio’s injury troubles…in MMA you need to fight to improve.  Stann is a very exciting pick at +140.

 
Darren ElkinsMMAMoneyLine (+300 on Bodog)

Charles Oliveira is overrated in my opinion.  Word on the street is that he’s quite the prospect, but word on the next street is that his striking is sloppy and he’s fairly one dimensional.  Yes, his BJJ will be worlds above anything Darren Elkins possesses.  However, I think the +300 line on the UFC-tested Elkins is worth a play because Oliveira will have to submit him to win.  Elkins is at least worth a look at this pretty inflated line.

 

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Jones/KO/2

Okami/UD

Ellenberger/TKO/2

Griffin/UD

Kelly/SUB/3

Pokrajac/TKO/1

Riddle/SUB/1

Stann/UD

Kimmons/UD

Elkins/TKO/2

 

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Okami – 2 u. at -180 on Sportsbook

Pokrajac – .5 u. at +160 on BetUS

Stann – 1 u. at +140 on SportsBet

Elkins – .25 u. at +300 on Bodog