UFC Welterweight bout: Nate Marquardt vs. Rick Story
Odds: ( Marquardt / Story )
Betting Pick: Marquardt
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In the main event of the evening, surging young wrestler Rick “Horror” Story will face the toughest challenge of his career as he takes on long-time veteran Nate “The Great” Marquardt. Marquardt is extremely dangerous and well-rounded, but bouts against Yushin Okami and Chael Sonnen showed that he can be overwhelmed by guys who are capable of outwrestling him, and Story’s wrestling is extremely effective. Marquardt is a wily veteran, though, so he will give Story some looks he has never seen before, so this should be a very competitive fight.
Rick “Horror” Story is coming off the biggest win of his career, a unanimous decision drubbing of Thiago “Pitbull” Alves. Despite Alves’ striking prowess, Story completely neutralized him with wrestling and clinch work and landed quite a few shots of his own for good measure. Story is a very good wrestler with heavy hands, a bruising top game, solid takedowns, and a great ability to neutralize opponents in the clinch. He is not necessarily a great finisher, but like Jon Fitch he puts his boxing and wrestling together well and is great at neutralizing his opponents’ offense and taking fights over.
Nate Marquardt is one of the best Middleweights in the world, but he always seems to fall short when it matters the most. An extremely well-rounded fighter, Marquardt can punish guys with his hands, has good takedowns, and can work very effectively from top position. The only major hole in his game is that he has trouble stopping dominant wrestlers and is not very effective off his back. He should enjoy a striking advantage against Story in both power and technique, but it is crucial that he uses his wrestling defensively to avoid getting steamrolled by takedowns and worked over on the ground.
This is a tough fight to call. Marquardt is clearly the more versatile of the two and a bigger threat to finish, but Story’s strengths do play right into Marquardt’s weaknesses. The only fighters who have given Marquardt trouble are top-notch wrestlers who can force him to work off his back, but also have the striking prowess to not get overwhelmed on the feet. Unfortunately, although Story is a great wrestler with solid boxing, I don’t think his takedowns are dominant enough for him to force Marquardt down consistently or that his boxing is good enough to keep Marquardt from picking him apart. This won’t be a one-sided fight, but I think Marquardt should be able to neutralize Story’s wrestling and land enough punches on the feet to earn the decision nod.
Prediction: Nate “The Great” Marquardt via Decision.
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