Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) women’s Strawweight contenders Cynthia Calvillo and Cortney Casey will face off this Sunday (Feb. 17, 2019) at UFC on ESPN 1 from inside Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, Arizona.
Calvillo burst onto the scene in 2017, winning three fights inside the Octagon in five months before coming up short the former champion Carla Esparza at the end of the year. She fought just once in 2018, another slick submission to get her back into the Octagon. Now in just her third year as a professional, Calvillo is looking to stay active and get back in the title hunt. Alternatively, Casey has been around UFC for a while now and her last three fights all ended up being split-decisions. She lost a pair of them, meaning things could look very different for “Cast Iron” with just some minor adjustments.
Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each woman:
Cynthia Calvillo
Record: 7-1
Key Wins: Joanne Calderwood (UFC Fight Night 113), Poliana Botelho (UFC Fight Night 140), Pearl Gonzalez (UFC 210) Montana Stewart (LFA 1)
Key Losses: Carla Esparza (UFC 219)
Keys to Victory: Calvillo is making her mark as one of the best grapplers in her division. More specifically, Calvillo is amazing in scrambles, seemingly always coming out on top in a dominant position or submission hold, while being nearly impossible to hold down.
Calvillo’s last fight was pretty perfect work. Botelho is one of the most physically imposing women on the roster, but Calvillo made her miss with in-and-out movement and patiently waited for an opening to catch a kick and score the takedown. Once on top, Calvillo’s grappling edge quickly made itself apparent for the first-round submission win.
Once more, Calvillo will face a larger, strong opponent probably looking to club her upside the head. For the second time in a row, being evasive and countering offense with the takedown seems the perfect strategy. In addition, Casey has a problem of either hanging back and doing nothing or charging forward recklessly, meaning the window for a reactive takedown will be quite large.
Cortney Casey
Record: 8-6
Key Wins: Angela Hill (UFC Fight Night 135), Jessica Aguilar (UFC 211), Randa Markos (UFC 202)
Key Losses: Michelle Waterson (UFC on FOX 29), Felice Herrig (UFC 218), Claudia Gadelha (UFC Fight Night 100)
Keys to Victory: As someone who picked her to win all three of those split-decisions, Casey routinely frustrates me. Casey is a huge Strawweight, perhaps the biggest. Her wrestling is strong, jiu-jitsu dangerous, and Casey can punch seriously hard — there’s no reason she should have lost those fights. The Waterson bout was the worst example, as Casey rocked her opponent each time she threw in combination then chose to… not really throw punches?
Baffling.
In this match up, the strategy of sprawl-and-brawl should be abundantly clear. Calvillo’s top game is legitimately nasty, enough so that Casey should be avoiding wrestling exchanges. Instead, Casey should be trying to work her way into the pocket and fire hard punches in combination.
Getting into the pocket may be difficult, as Calvillo doesn’t often stay in one spot for long. Low kicks could be a valuable tool for Casey, as there’s no better weapon for pinning down a foe momentarily and slowing all that movement.
Bottom Line: Both women are attempting to break into the title mix.
Calvillo was nearly in line for a title shot before her upset loss to Esparza, but the quickness of her rise made a lot of fans ignore that her career only began in 2016. By fight standards, that’s incredibly young to be facing a former champion. Nevertheless, that lost dropped Calvillo from the Top 10, and her goal in this fight is to regain that status.
Casey is in a similar position just outside the Top 10, but her problem has been building a consistent win streak. The talent is there, but the wins haven’t yet followed. Casey was more consistently aggressive without any major mistakes in her most recent win opposite Angela Hill, so hopefully she’s managed to fix those in-fight errors. If that’s the case, a second big win here could create just the opportunity needed to finally break free of that 10-15 range.
At UFC on ESPN 1, Cynthia Calvillo and Cortney Casey will duel on the main card. Which woman will earn the victory?