Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight talents Rafael dos Anjos and Kevin Lee will square off TONIGHT (May 18, 2019) at UFC Fight Night 152 from inside Blue Cross Arena in Rochester, New York.
“RDA” abandoned the Lightweight division to instant success, quickly climbing into the top five on the strength of three quality victories. Unfortunately, that’s when dos Anjos ran directly into two of the top wrestlers in the sport, losing consecutive decisions to both Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman that effectively booted him from title contention.
In a somewhat similar position, Lee rose quite quickly to the top of the Lightweight division before losing two of his last three bouts to elite competition. Unlike his opponent, however, Lee is only 26 years old, meaning his best years are likely still ahead of him. This is Lee’s first bout at 170 pounds, which will hopefully improve some of the conditioning issues Lee has dealt with in the past.
Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:
Rafael dos Anjos
Record: 28-11
Key Wins: Robbie Lawler (UFC on FOX 26), Neil Magny (UFC 215), Tarec Saffiedine (UFC Fight Night 111), Anthony Pettis (UFC 185), Ben Henderson (UFC Fight Night 49), Donald Cerrone (UFC on FOX 17, UFC Fight Night 27)
Key Losses: Kamaru Usman (TUF 28 Finale), Colby Covington (UFC 225), Eddie Alvarez (UFC Fight Night 90), Tony Ferguson (UFC Fight Night 98), Khabib Nurmagomedov (UFC on FOX 11)
Keys to Victory: Win or lose, “RDA” has fought nothing but excellent competition for the better part of 10 years now. The Brazilian is a pressure fighter, a man who excels when swarming his opponent with combinations along the fence, dumping them to the mat, and generally being a bully.
In his last two fights, dos Anjos has been faced with powerful wrestlers who want to put him on his back. In both fights, dos Anjos was too willing to back up — he’s simply bad at it, as dos Anjos tends too back straight up into the fence rather than take angles, which gives up easy takedowns and control to his foes.
Kevin Lee is going to attempt to replicate the Covington and Usman performances. Since we’ve clearly established that dos Anjos is not able to fight from back foot well, it’s time to abandon the hope that “RDA” will start angling off and avoiding the fence. Instead, dos Anjos has to walk forward like he’s facing any other foe and put combinations on Lee. While it’s true that aggressive offense does create openings for the takedown too, at least then dos Anjos’ back wouldn’t be to the fence while trying to defend.
Kevin Lee
Record: 17-4
Key Wins: Edson Barboza (UFC Fight Night 128), Michael Chiesa (UFC Fight Night 112), Francisco Trinaldo (UFC Fight Night 106), Michele Prazeres (UFC Fight Night 60)
Key Losses: Al Iaquinta (UFC on FOX 31, UFC 169), Tony Ferguson (UFC 216), Leonardo Santos (UFC 194)
Keys to Victory: Lee’s path to victory is no secret. “The Motown Phenom” has some extraordinary physical gifts, namely his crazy long arms that make wrapped up an opponent’s hips and throwing him through the air an absurdly simple task. Once in top position, Lee is brutal.
Last time out, Lee’s in-fight decisions were a bit confusing. Early on, Lee’s double leg is nearly unstoppable, but he inexplicably spent the entire first round striking, not using his best weapon and narrowly losing the round as a result. Lee did eventually turn to his wrestling — and it worked spectacularly — but he did tire late in the fight, allowing Iaquinta to pick up a couple more rounds in the second half of the fight.
If Lee would’ve shot for his double leg in the first round, the decision very well could’ve swung the other way.
Lee cannot afford to make the same mistake against dos Anjos, because the Brazilian will punish him far more aggressively than “Raging Al.” Lee needs to set the tone with an early takedown and break dos Anjos’ confidence in moving forward. If that happens, Lee will be in control, which makes it far easier to maintain a high pace for 25 minutes.
Bottom Line: Of these two former Lightweights, only one can contend at 170 pounds.
Dos Anjos’ back is to the wall. Two losses is always a rough stretch to overcome, but at least those two defeats came to the top two fighters in the division currently. As it stands, dos Anjos is still ranked within the top five, still just a couple strong wins of his own away from getting back into the mix. If he comes up short to Lee, however, it’s really the end of the Brazilian’s time as a Welterweight contender.
Lee’s situation is a bit more flexible, given this is his first fight at Welterweight. If he wins, he’s instantly introduced to the 170-pound title mix, ready to take on another top contender and potentially fight for a title shot sooner than later. If not, Lee still has the option to drop back down to Lightweight, where he’s currently ranked as No. 7.
Tonight at UFC Fight Night 152, Rafael dos Anjos and Kevin Lee will duel in the main event. Which man will have his hand raised?