Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Strawweight contenders Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Michelle Waterson will clash TONIGHT (Oct. 12, 2019) at UFC Fight Night 161 from inside Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida.
All the weigh-in drama was for naught, and the show goes on. Former champion Jedrzejczyk has not let three losses in her previous four fights distract her from her goal of the championship belt, and despite those defeats, she’s perhaps just one win away from contention. Meanwhile, Waterson turned a corner last year, picking up three of the best victories of her career to return to the win column and reintroduce herself as a potential contender. In short, tonight’s main event is a likely title eliminator, as the other main contender, Tatiana Suarez, is currently injured.
Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for both women:
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Record: 15-3
Key Wins: Jessica Andrade (UFC 211), Claudia Gadelha (TUF 23 Finale, UFC on FOX 13), Karolina Kowalkiewicz (UFC 203), Carla Esparza (UFC 185), Tecia Torres (UFC on FOX 30)
Key Losses: Rose Namajunas (UFC 223, UFC 217), Valentina Shevchenko (UFC 231)
Keys to Victory: There is not much mystery left in Jedrzejczyk’s approach to combat. The Polish athlete is a ridiculously high-volume Muay Thai fighter who relies on classic combinations and constant kicks to drown opponents in volume, and she’s damn tough to take down.
Opposite Waterson, I’d like to see Jedrzejczyk improve upon the issues that plagued her against Namajunas, particularly since Waterson is likely to attempt some of the same strategies while kickboxing. In those losses, Jedrzejcyzk had a difficult time with Namajunas’ footwork and feints, resulting in a lot of swings at air.
If and when Waterson attempts to be similarly evasive, Jedrzejczyk has to commit to tracking her foe down behind the jab. If Jedrzejczyk jabs to close distance before unleashing a combination, she’s much more likely to land. Furthermore, getting Waterson moving and then slamming home a low kick into the trail leg has worked against Waterson in the past, and it’s likely to prove very effective in a five-round fight.
Michelle Waterson
Record: 17-6
Key Wins: Karolina Kowalkiewicz (UFC on ESPN 2), Cortney Casey (UFC on FOX 29), Felica Herrig (UFC 229) Paige VanZant (UFC on FOX 22), Jessica Penne (Invicta FC 5)
Key Losses: Rose Namajunas (UFC on FOX 24), Tecia Torres (UFC 218), Herica Tiburcio (Invicta FC 10)
Keys to Victory: Waterson is very much a kicks and clinch fighter. She’ll throw some counters punches occasionally and pump out the jab, but Waterson generally wants to to kick her foe at distance and then toss her through the air once the two connect.
I’ll be honest, while it would be sound strategy for Waterson to look to replicate Namajunas’ success on the feet, I don’t think it produces a win. Waterson does not have the boxing skill of Namajunas, and “Thug Rose” herself only won the rematch by a small margin.
However, lots of movement, false starts, and general evasiveness can help limit damage until Waterson lands the clinch. If Waterson does score the upset, it will at least start in the clinch, where Waterson has genuinely good throws. Jedrzejczyk is more vulnerable to clinch takedowns than shots anyway, so there is a chance Waterson can gain top position with a toss or trip.
Getting on top is Waterson’s biggest key to victory, a path that could lead to a submission or even decision victory, and that begins in the clinch.
Bottom Line: It is very likely a title eliminator.
If past interviews are any indication, Jedrzejczyk only has a couple years left of competition before retirement. As such, there really isn’t time for any more setbacks if she’s to recapture the title. A win here earns her an opportunity against Weili Zhang, which is not a terrible match up for the Muay Thai fighter. A loss, however, really does leave Jedrzejczyk stranded as an elite contender without much chance of getting a title shot in two separate divisions.
This may be Waterson’s final chance at a title shot as well. There are elite Strawweights that are truly terrible match ups for Waterson, but currently, women like Namajunas and Suarez are on the sidelines. If Waterson comes up short, she’ll be forced to build a new win streak that likely sees her run into such a foe. At the moment, she’s just two victories away from gold, but that number grows significantly with a loss.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Fight Night 161 fight card TONIGHT right here, starting with the ESPN+“Prelims” that are scheduled to begin at 5 p.m. ET, then the main card portion that will also stream on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Fight Night 161: “Joanna vs. Waterson” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
At UFC Fight Night 161, Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Michelle Waterson will go to war. Which woman will have her hand raised?