Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Tampa mixed martial arts (MMA) event, set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Dec. 14, 2024) on ESPN2 and ESPN+ from inside Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida. UFC Tampa features a 170-pound main event between three-time title challenger Colby Covington and No. 9-ranked striking sensation Joaquin Buckley, a five-round headliner with major title implications for early 2025 and beyond.
Before we dive into the main and co-main events, which include the 145-pound scrap between featherweight veterans Cub Swanson and Billy Quarantillo, check out Andrew Richardson’s “X-Factor” breakdown for the rest of the UFC Tampa main card by clicking here. Get all the latest “Covington vs. Buckley” odds and betting props courtesy of FanDuel right here. For UFC Tampa live results and play-by-play updates click here.
170 lbs.: Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley
Colby “Chaos” Covington
Record: 17-4 | Age: 36 | Betting line: +240
Wins: 4 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 9 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 5’11“ | Reach: 72” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.88 | Striking accuracy: 38%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.98 | Striking Defense: 55%
Takedown Average: 3.79 (44% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 67%
Current Ranking: No. 6 | Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Leon Edwards
Joaquin “New Mansa” Buckley
Record: 20-6 | Age: 30 | Betting line: -298
Wins: 14 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 6 DEC | Losses: 4 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 5’10“ | Reach: 76” | Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.13 | Striking accuracy: 36%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.20 | Striking Defense: 57%
Takedown Average: 1.96 (46% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 69%
Current Ranking: No. 9 | Last fight: Knockout win over Stephen Thompson
Colby Covington has only competed five times over the last five years, putting together a 2-3 record during that span. In fact, the 36 year-old “Chaos” has not beaten anyone currently signed to the active UFC roster since out-wrestling Rafael dos Anjos back in June 2018. His last performance returned a listless 25-minutes of non-action against then-champion Leon Edwards in what inexplicably marked his third unsuccessful title fight. After the event, UFC CEO Dana White said “Chaos” looked “old” and “slow” and we now have to wonder if the aging welterweight is still a legitimate threat at 170 pounds. This upcoming fight at UFC Tampa should provide that answer.
“I know I’m still an elite welterweight,” Covington said during the UFC Tampa media day (watch the replay here). “In the first 30 seconds [against Edwards] I throw a kick, I break my foot in three different places. So that’s not a reflection of who I am and how I fight. I was just compromised. It wasn’t my night and that happens. It’s one fight. I’ve had 22 fights. So, you’re going to have some hiccups here and there. I had a lot of adversity that I had to face in that fight. Saturday night, I look forward to proving those doubters wrong and silencing all my critics.”
I know it’s tempting to jump ship when an aging fighter falters, but there is also the possibility that Covington had an off night, or that Edwards had the right style to shut him down across the board. Remember, “Rocky” also closed the book on Kamaru Usman in back-to-back title fights, so it’s not like Edwards is not capable of dominant, high-level performances. It’s also worth mentioning that Covington does not have knockout power and his only finish over the last eight years came against Tyron Woodley after “The Chosen One” injured his rib.
Joaquin Buckley has been a nice surprise at 170 pounds at a time when the welterweight division has been undergoing a changing of the guard. In addition to Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Garry, fresh faces include Jack Della Maddalena and Sean Brady, among others, and Buckley fits in nicely among that new crop of up-and-coming contenders. “New Mansa” has managed to string together five straight wins — three by way of knockout — planting established veterans like Stephen Thompson and Vicente Luque along the way. Buckley is six years younger than Covington but has five more professional fights than his UFC Tampa counterpart, thanks in part to Covington’s inactivity over the last few years.
Buckley is very fast and one of the strongest fighters in the welterweight division. His blinding speed, coupled with his accuracy, is what led him to five post-fight performance bonuses across his UFC career, including his “Knockout of the Year” against Impa Kasanganay. “New Mansa” is an underrated offensive wrestler and Covington has been taken down multiple times across his career, even by smaller fighters like the aforementioned Dos Anjos. I doubt we will see much of that from Buckley when he holds such a distinct advantage on the feet, though I don’t know if his muscular frame is built for five rounds, which means all “Chaos” has to do is survive the first two frames.
“We can all judge off the last performance,” Buckley said during the UFC Tampa media day (watch the replay here). “He wasn’t that good. I feel like the best performance I’ve seen from Colby Covington was against either [Dos Anjos] or Jorge Masvidal. That was his prime condition where he was pushing the pace and showing his dominant style. But yet again, he said he took another year off to get back to the person he was, so I’m expecting the best version of Colby. But I feel like even the best version of Colby is no match for me.”
Buckley by knockout would be great for the division and karma for all the sh*t Covington has talked over the years, but he would need to be completely washed for that to happen. Despite his insufferable shtick, “Chaos” has championship cardio and a solid chin, along with enough of a wrestling advantage to take away his opponent’s kicks and keep him guessing between strike and shot. It pains me to say this, but I have a feeling Covington will make this look easy, finishing an exhausted Buckley late in the fight.
Prediction: Covington def. Buckley by submission
170 lbs.: Cub Swanson vs. Billy Quarantillo
“Killer” Cub Swanson
Record: 29-14 | Age: 41 | Betting line: +136
Wins: 13 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 12 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 7 SUB, 4 DEC
Height: 5’8“ | Reach: 70” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.67 | Striking accuracy: 50%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.86 | Striking Defense: 59%
Takedown Average: 1.04 (50% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 63%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Split decision loss to Andre Fili
Billy Quarantillo
Record: 18-6 | Age: 36 | Betting line: -162
Wins: 8 KO/TKO, 5 SUB, 5 DEC | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 5’10“ | Reach: 70” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 7.36 | Striking accuracy: 56%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 5.57 | Striking Defense: 43%
Takedown Average: 1.24 (23% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 61%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Submission loss to Youssef Zalal
Cub Swanson is approaching Jim Miller territory in that he’s been hanging around for what seems like an eternity, never fighting for a title and at this point, not even holding a spot in the division Top 15. A quick scan of the all-time records has the WEC veteran at or near the top of most 145-pound categories and he’s got the division mark for post-fight performance bonuses at 10 (tied with former champion Max Holloway).
There’s not a lot to dissect here, Swanson is one of those blue-collar fighters who is good at everything and great at nothing. His boxing is clearly his best attribute while his seven losses by submission demonstrate that “Killer” will never be dazzling anyone with his ground game, defensively speaking. Anyone concerned that Swanson might be over the hill at age 41 should rewatch his “Fight of the Night” banger opposite Andre Fili as part of the UFC 303 pay-per-view (PPV) card back in June, one of seven times he’s bagged that bonus (on top of the four times he did it for WEC from 2007-10).
Not surprisingly, Quarantillo has been a longtime fan.
“I kind of expected that because I think I have a fan-friendly fighting style,” Swanson said during the UFC Tampa media day (watch the replay here). “It makes me proud. I’ve got no problem with it. I know he just had a birthday, so I’m excited to welcome him into the master’s division. He’s one of the old guys like myself. He’s been around for a little while, so I’m happy to welcome him to the master’s division.”
Billy Quarantillo is not quite as old as Swanson but is certainly no spring chicken himself, turning 36 just a few days back. Fight fans were first introduced to the Floridian on Season 3 of Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in summer 2019, where he bagged and tagged Kamuela Kirk for a spot on the featherweight roster. In the five years that followed, Quarantillo has been consistently inconsistent, alternating wins and losses over his last eight fights for a record of 4-4, which includes his submission defeat against Youssef Zalal at UFC Vegas 89 last March.
“My wife described it as the happiest she’s ever seen me,” Quarantillo said during the UFC Tampa media day (watch the replay here). “I was super excited. Cub’s a legend of the sport. I remember watching him before I even trained martial arts. I was at a party watching him in the WEC and I wasn’t even training MMA. He’s been there, done that, and it’s exciting to fight him. But at the end of the day, I’m going to go out there and get my hand raised.”
Quarantillo matches up well against Swanson; he’s a high-volume striker with average offensive wrestling and poor takedown defense. I doubt we’ll see either of these two shooting for takedowns, especially in a three-round affair, unless one of them racks up significant damage and needs to neutralize the incoming attack. Quarantillo lands at a higher rate and is more accurate with his punches, but Swanson absorbs far less damage and is much tighter on defense. That said, defense rarely wins points with the judges, so Swanson needs to give as good as he gets to stay in the fight (literally). I could very easily see this going all three rounds and ending with a split as fans argue over who should have won, but when push comes to shove, it’s hard to bet against the battle-tested veteran.
Prediction: Swanson def. Quarantillo by decision
Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Tampa main card predictions RIGHT HERE.
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Tampa fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN2/ESPN+ preliminary card bouts at 7 p.m. ET, followed by the ESPN2/ESPN+ main card start time at 10 p.m. ET.
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