UFC Vegas 100: Best betting props, parlays and picks | Magny vs. Prates

UFC Vegas 100 is live this weekend (Sat., Nov. 9, 2024), featuring top Welterweights Neil Magny and Carlos Prates in the main event. Checkout the odds for that banger of a fight (and much more) right here!

UFC Vegas 100 takes place this weekend (Sat., Nov., 9, 2024) inside the familiar UFC APEX facility in Las Vegas, NV. The main event sees veteran Welterweight Neil Magny test out rising challenger Carlos Prates.

The co-main event has supposed to feature former Bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt against Miles Johns. However, Garbrandt had to back out due to injury. The co-main is now former ONE Light Heavyweight champion Reinier de Ridder debuting opposite tough vet Gerald Meerschaert.

The “Prelims” were due to be headlined by a rematch with Elizeu Zaleski and Nicolas Dalby throwing down. However, Dalby is out of that fight and newcomer Zach Scroggin has taken his place. The remainder of the Prelims features most Contender Series alums, some of whom are making their UFC proper debuts.

Let’s checkout the money lines on “Magny vs. Prates” and all the other bouts on the card …

UFC Vegas 100 Main Card Money Line Odds

Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Neil Magny (+475) vs. Carlos Prates (-800)

I don’t feel good about this…

Neil Magny has made a career out of being a game opponent who is not afraid to face scary opposition and, for the most part, weathering the storm they bring his way. However, at 37 and coming off a first round TKO loss, I hate this match-up for him. This feels less like a gatekeeper assignment and more like a sacrificial lamb.

Carlos Prates is 4-0 in UFC now, with four straight highlight reel stoppages.

He clocked Mitch Ramirez with a straight left (see it here).

He used the same punch to KO Trevin Giles (see it here).

He then folded Charles Radtke with a brutal knee (see it here).

And then he became the first man to finish Li Jingliang on the feet (see that here).

In his last fight Magny was hit was 39 of the 45 significant strikes Michael Morales threw at him over the four and a half minutes their fight lasted for (see the TKO here). That’s an 86% success rate. Morales’ career significant striking accuracy was 46% when they fought.

Prates has 57% career accuracy on significant strikes.

It feels very likely that Prates is going to be able to hit Magny with his best stuff. And when he does, I don’t think Magny will last any longer than he did against Morales.

Magny’s best defense against these kinds of strikers is his grinding, clinch pressure game. But if he employs that against Prates, that won’t help. Prates is a Muay Thai specialist and his clinch game is nasty. I can see Magny hoping for respite against the fence, only to get a crushing knee to the liver or a thudding elbow across his temple.

I’m not alone in this thinking. The oddsmakers have Magny as a big underdog, which is becoming common for them. He was +600 against Morales, +300 in his comeback win over Mike Malott and +380 against Ian Machado Garry.

Prates to win by KO/TKO is just -400.

I think there’s a chance this is over in the first round and that’s where we’re going to find some value in this fight.

Prates by KO/TKO is round 1 is +180. If you think it takes him until round two to finish the job, you can get that at +350.

A more conservative bet would be Prates to win and under 1.5 rounds, which you can get at -105. You can also get Prates to win in rounds 1 or 2 at -175.

Ultimately, though, I’m pretty confident Prates is going to finish this quickly. So I’ll go that route and get plus odds.

Best bet: Carlos Prates to win by KO/TKO/DQ in round 1 (+180)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Gerald Meerschaert (+240) vs. Reinier de Ridder (-400)

Gerald Meerschaert pulled off a bit of an upset last time out, withstanding a good round from Edmen Shahbazyan before storming back and getting the club and sub win (see it here). He was +250 in that match-up, in which many had him as a very live dog.

That’s not the first underdog win for Meerschaert. He guillotined Bruno Silva as a +240 dog in 2022 (see it here) and rear naked choked Makhmud Muradov as a +440 underdog a year earlier (see it here).

Reinier de Ridder is a big favorite here despite him being untested against UFC talent. His work In ONE is notable, though. He wasn’t beating total cans over there when he was Light Heavyweight champion. His two wins over Aung La N Sang are probably his best victories there.

He’s left ONE on the back of brutal losses to Anatoly Malykhin, one at Light Heavyweight (due to a perfectly legal knee to a grounded opponent) and one at Heavyweight. ONE pushed him out of his natural weight there in order to make big matches with a very limited talent pool.

Most recently De Ridder beat up Magomedmurad Khasaev on a UAE Warriors card, fighting at 205 lbs.

I’m a little surprised to see De Ridder cut down to Middleweight for his UFC debut. The last time he fought that small was in 2018. If he can make the cut, he will be massive opposite Meerschaert.

The weight class, along with him being past his prime, has me pumping the brakes on what De Ridder could do here. He’s a dangerous grappler, but Meerschaert has proved he’s not too shabby himself in that department.

I’m not confident enough in De Ridder as a big favorite to ride with him here. I think he might win, but I don’t know how convincing it will be. Because of that I’m looking at bets that don’t rely on a specific winner.

Exact method of victory – Submission is where I’m going to go, believing in both guys’ abilities to tap someone out and their likelihood to focus on submissions in this fight. This bet covers me if De Ridder comes in and is as impressive as the bookies think he will be. And it also covers me if Meerschaert pulls off another one of those underdog submission wins.

Best bet: Exact method of victory – Submission (-105)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Ricky Turcios (+265) vs. Benardo Sopaj (-350)

Ricky Turcios lost to Raul Rosas Jr. last time out (see it here). That was a wild fight with plenty of animosity on either side. It dropped Turcios to 2-2 since he won the 2021 season of The Ultimate Fighter. His two wins, over Brady Hiestand and Kevin Natividad, were split decisions.

Benardo Sopaj lost his promotional debut in March, being felled by a late flying knee from Vinicius Oliveira (see it here). Sopaj was able to out wrestle Oliveira in that bout before being wiped out by that KO of the Year candidate. He came into that fight on short notice. And Oliveira has since shown he’s no fluke, beating Ricky Simon in his last fight.

In what little we’ve seen of him, Sopaj has showed us he has takedowns in his arsenal. And we know Turcios struggles to defend against those (45% defense). We also know Turcios doesn’t have the striking needed to dissuade someone from shooting in on him (37% accuracy on significant strikes).

I’m happy with the favorite in this fight and I anticipate a pretty dull affair with lots of takedowns and low output ground control.

Best bet: Benardo Sopaj to win by decision (-105)

Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images

Luana Pinheiro (+240) vs. Gillian Robertson (-300)

Gillian Robertson has looked very good lately. She put an uncomfortable beating on Michelle Waterson-Gomez in the Karate Hottie’s retirement fight (see it here). Before that she finished Polyana Viana by TKO (see it here).

Luana Pinheiro has the dubious distinction of being the first and only woman to get submitted by Angela Hill. That happened in May (see it here). Prior to that loss she was KO’d by a spinning wheel kick from Amanda Ribas (see it here). And before that she was on the wrong side of a split decision to Waterson-Gomez.

MMA math shouldn’t always be trusted, but you’d expect Robertson to be able to tap anyone Hill can submit.

Robertson is also going to have a decent size advantage over Pinheiro. She should be able to use that to wear on Pinheiro and tire her out before locking up a submission.

Best bet: Gillian Robertson to win by submission (+110)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Mansur Abdul-Malik (-370) vs. Dusko Todorovic (+275)

Mansur Abdul-Malik won on Contender Series in August, getting a TKO due to ground and pound against Wes Schultz. That made him 6-0 as a professional.

Dusko Todorovic was once an interesting prospect. He came through Contender Series in 2019 and then dominated Dequan Townsend in his proper debut.

Since then, though, he’s gone 2-4. Both his wins are against guys no longer in UFC. His losses include a TKO against Punahele Soriano (see it here) and a KO against Chidi Njokuani (see it here).

We last saw him in March, 2023, where a knee injury cost him his fight with Christian Leroy Duncan.

I think he’s being served up on a platter to the UFC’s shiny new toy here. Abdul-Malik has a five inch reach advantage over Todorovic and he posses the kind of athleticism that has caused him lots of trouble in the past.

I’m expecting him to run through Todorovic in this match. The only odds on DraftKings are for the moneyline and the over/under 1.5 rounds. The under is -160 and that’s where I’m going to go. If Todorovic hadn’t been on the sidelines for a year and a half I would like his chances to last a little longer.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-160)

UFC Vegas 100 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

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Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+340) vs. Denise Gomes (-475)

Karolina Kowalkiewicz felt a bit like she was just going through the motions during her lopsided decision loss to Iasmin Lucindo down in Rio in May. That loss snapped a four fight winning streak for the former title challenger.

Denise Gomes got past Eduarda Moura via split decision last time out. That moved her to 3-2 in UFC.

We’re likely to see a kickboxing match between these two. Kowalkiewicz is fundamentally sound, but she’s not a special striker. And in her last bout she looked like she had lost a step.

I think she will struggle with Gomes’ activity and be on the end of another decision here. Most value available on Gomes is if you go with the point spread (it’s still not much). That’s a little risky, given how closely scored a lot of women’s fights are. However, I do think Kowalkiewicz, at 39, is starting to really decline. Gomes is very capable of getting by her with 30-27s across the board.

Best bet: Denise Gomes -3.5 (-190)

Photo by Buda Mendes/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Elizeu Zaleski vs. Zach Scroggin

Zach Scroggin is a late replacement for Nicolas Dalby. At this time of writing there are no odds available for the match-up.

Scroggin is 7-0 and coming off the Midwest regional circuit. Zaleski is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Randy Brown and a draw to Rinat Fakhretdinov.

Best bet: Abstain

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Matthew Semelsberger (+140) vs. Charles Radtke (-170)

Charles Radtke was dropped by a Carlos Prates knee in his last fight. That came after back-to-back wins to start his UFC career. He beat Mike Mathetha by decision in his debut and then KO’d Gilbert Urbina (see it here).

Matthew Semelsberger is 5-5 in UFC now, thanks to a decision loss to Preston Parsons in his last fight. Prior to that he was stopped by Uros Medic (see that here).

The big question in this bout is whether Semelsberger will be able to stand up to Radtke’s power. Semelsberger absorbs 4.21 significant strikes per minute, which is higher than what he lands (3.78). That’s never a good sign.

Radtke lands with power, but he’s also fairly accurate (52%).

Semelsberger may try and wrestle his way to victory. He has a 57% takedown accuracy. Radtke is yet to be taken down in UFC, but he’s also relatively untested as a defensive wrestler.

I’m very torn on whether or not to fade Semelsberger’s striking defense or Radtke’s takedown defense. There’s not many chances to take underdogs on this card, so I’ll go with Semelsberger with hopes he can get the takedown and frustrate Radtke on the mat.

Best bet: Matthew Semelsberger moneyline (+140)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Cody Stamann (+225) vs. Da’Mon Blackshear (-290)

Both these guys really need a win.

Taylor Lapilus fought circles around Cody Stamann for an easy win in June. Before that he was decisioned by Douglas Silva de Andrade. At 34 Stamann is no longer able to produce his quick, bothersome wrestling game to great effect.

Da’Mon Blackshear was KO’d by Montel Jackson in July (see it here). That was the first time he had been stopped by strikes. Prior to that he lost a decision to Mario Bautista. It feels like a longtime removed from his twister over Jose Johnson just last year (see it here).

Blackshear has a ton of size on Stamann. He’s four inches taller and has an ridiculous eight inch reach advantage. We just saw what size advantage can do for a grappler with Cody Gibson vs. Chad Anheliger. If this gets to the ground we could see something similar.

Stamann might try and keep this standing to avoid such a situation. But he simply doesn’t have the power in his hands to win a fight like that (just one stoppage in UFC, against a 38-year-old Eddie Wineland in 2022).

I just don’t see much of a route for him to win this one.

Best bet: Da’Mon Blackshear moneyline (-265)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Melissa Mullins (-235) vs. Klaudia Sygula (+190)

Melissa Mullins was picked apart and stopped by Nora Cornolle in her last fight. That came after she took a decision over Irina Alekseeva in her debut. She missed weight for the Cornolle fight.

Klaudia Sygula is making her debut here, coming in on short notice for Montserrat Rendon. She’s got a 6-1 record for fights on the lower tiers of the European scene.

With so little info available, I’m inclined to side with the woman who has been here before (albeit without spectacular results).

Best bet: Melissa Mullins moneyline (-235)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Gaston Bolanos (+165) vs. Cortavious Romious (-195)

Cortavious Romious is another recent Contender Series grad. He won his appearance on the show via unanimous decision in August. He also has the great, and timely, nickname of “Are you not entertained?” I hope he’s good so that we can hear Bruce Buffer belt that out one day.

Gaston Bolanos is a long time Bellator veteran. He’s 1-1 in UFC having beaten Aaron Phillips by unanimous decision in his debut. And then he lost to Marcus McGhee by TKO in January.

Romious seems like an interesting prospect and Bolanos is yet to show us he really belongs in UFC.

Best bet: Cortavious Romious moneyline (-225)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Tresean Gore (-185) vs. Antonio Trocoli (+155)

Tresean Gore is still with UFC. He’s returning here after two years on the sidelines. His last fight was a guillotine over Josh Fremd, which earned him a POTN bonus (see it here). That was his first win in UFC and followed losses to Cody Brundage, Bryan Battle and an injury hit run on TUF.

Antonio Trocoli has had a weird start to his UFC tenure. He’s had suspensions, cancellations and late replacement duties since first signing for the promotion in 2022. He finally fought his debut in June, being stopped by a late left hook from Shara Magomedov (see it here).

This is another fight with a big size difference. Trocoli is huge for Middleweight, standing 6’ 5” (five inches taller than Gore) and possessing an 80 inch reach (five inches longer than Gore).

Jury’s out on whether Trocoli knows what to do with all that size. The bookies likely believe Gore will be able to take down this big target and work his way to a decision win. I’m thinking the same thing.

Best bet: Tresean Gore moneyline (-185)

Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images

UFC Vegas 100 Long Shots

Here’s a couple of things that look interesting (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 100 card …

Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates – Fight to End in the Last 10 Seconds of Any Round – Yes (+3000)

I’ve been pumping up Carlos Prates a lot in this post, but I do believe he’s capable of making a lot of noise in this decision and — as an older prospect — he doesn’t have a lot of time to do it in. Neil Magny is being put in a bad situation here and I think it’s going to end violently for him. I like this bet because Prates is patient and Magny is tough. Prates doesn’t rush, even when he has someone hurt. He stalks and keeps looking for the best shot to put someone down. I think he rocks Magny early and then late in the first.

Gerald Meerschaert to win by Submission in Round 2 (+1400)

Gerald Meerschaert has shown us that he can never be totally counted out of a fight. And with so many question marks about Reinier de Ridder coming in to UFC past his prime and below his usual weight class, why can’t Meerschaert cause an upset (again) by submission (again).

Three bet parlay: Carlos Prates to win by KO/TKO/DQ, Gillian Robertson to win by submission and Benardo Sopaj to win by decision (+412)

I’ve already discussed Prates, but I matched him with two other outcomes I’m pretty high on. Gillian Robertson has been on a steady trend upwards in her career lately and she’s not been given a level of opponent to reflect that. Pinheiro’s submission defense is subject and Robertson’s submission offense is great — you do the math. There’s a lot of unknowns about Benardo Sopaj, but Ricky Turcios’ deficiencies are pretty obvious at this point. Sopaj should be able to take him down and hold him there for a while.

Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 100 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 8 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 100: “Magny vs. Prates” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.