Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 102 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Feb. 15, 2025) on ESPN+ from inside APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC Vegas 102 features a middleweight main event between one-time title challenger Jared Cannonier and Brazilian smashing machine Gregory Rodrigues, a five-round showdown with possible title implications for late 2025 and beyond.
Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the featherweight showdown between veteran bruiser Calvin Kattar and Moroccan mauler Youssef Zalal, check out Andrew Richardson’s “X-Factor” breakdown for the rest of the UFC Vegas 102 main card by clicking here. Get all the latest “Cannonier vs. Rodrigues” odds and betting props courtesy of FanDuel right here. For UFC Vegas 102 live results and play-by-play for this weekend’s “Sin City” fight card click here.
185 lbs.: Jared Cannonier vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Jared “Killa Gorilla” Cannonier
Record: 17-8 | Age: 40 | Betting line: +170
Wins: 10 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 5 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 5 DEC
Height: 5’11” | Reach: 77” | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.49 | Striking accuracy: 50%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.39 | Striking Defense: 56%
Takedown Average: 0.42 (46% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 62%
Current Ranking: No. 7 | Last fight: Decision loss to Caio Borralho
Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues
Record: 16-5 | Age: 32 | Betting line: -205
Wins: 10 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 3 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 6’3“ | Reach: 75” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.52 | Striking accuracy: 56%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.69 | Striking Defense: 51%
Takedown Average: 2.74 (41% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 100%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Decision win over Christian Leroy Duncan
Jared Cannonier turns 41 in just a couple of weeks and is coming off consecutive losses to Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho, two of the division’s most promising young prospects. Whether or not that signifies that “Killa Gorilla” is over the hill and on his way out is unknown, because his one-sided ass whopping of notoriously-tough Marvin Vettori — as well as his decision victory over former champion Sean Strickland — are not exactly ancient history. It’s also worth mentioning that his Borralho loss was competitive enough to grab “Fight of the Night” honors for both combatants. There’s not a lot of subtlety or nuance to Cannonier’s game, he essentially lumbers forward and throws hands, wrestling when the occasion calls for it. He’s got two wins by submission but they took place more than a decade ago on the regional circuit, so don’t expect anything but punches in bunches when the cage door closes this weekend in “Sin City.”
“I plan on knocking him out, I think it will be a TKO, possibly in the second or third round,” Cannonier told James Lynch. “He tends to slow down a little bit. I’m working really hard on my cardio for that not to be an issue. I plan on not taking any damage. I plan on being hard to hit, and hitting him as many times as possible. I’m always hoping for the best. My last two fights haven’t gone that way, but I’m always hoping for the best. I’m always working and training to improve and to bring the best that’s in my mind to reality. I’m going to look like a completely different fighter. And the goal isn’t to just keep busy, the goal is to win, so I’m going to start winning. I’m going as long as my body holds up.”
Gregory Rodrigues has seven wins under the UFC banner and five of them have ended by decapitation. Not surprisingly, the Brazilian bomb dropper has already bagged three post-fight performance bonuses, with two “Fight of the Night” honors. Like Cannonier, the few submissions Rodrigues has to his name came on the regional circuit and his fights these days are all about the knockout, which may not always provide the best path to victory, but fans love that style of fighting and just as importantly, matchmakers love to book it. The rise of “Robocop” has been a nice surprise, especially when you consider he was stopped by Jordan Williams on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in late 2020. Williams proved to be a total bust, losing all three of his subsequent UFC fights. Rodrigues, meanwhile, has an opportunity to break into the division Top 15 — possibly even the Top 10 — with a big performance this weekend at APEX.
“Cannonier deserves all respect,” Rodrigues told Sherdog.com. “This guy already fought in three diferent divisions and faced champions like Anderson Silva, Glover Teixeira, Jan Blachowicz, Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya. But I believe he is naturally paying a price for all those wars and of course, he is 40 years old. I’m prepared for a five-round war against the best version of Cannonier, but of course my goal is to knock him out or submit before that. The secret to evolution is to never stay in your comfort zone. Last year I trained with Glover and [Alex Pereira]. It was such a great experience for me. In my own academy I have names like ‘Durinho,’ [Shavkat] Rakmonov, [Nassourdine] Imavov. When I train jiu-jitsu with my coach, Vagner Rocha, I [also] train with [Antonio Carlos Jr. and Marcus Almeida]. When you face challenges of that level every day, you have no reason to fear any opponent.”
I don’t think the Cannonier we get this weekend at APEX will be a much different version than what we’ve seen from “Killa Gorilla” over the last couple of years. The question remains, will it be enough to outlast Rodrigues? It’s hard to pick an aging fighter on a losing streak against a younger combatant who is firing on all cylinders. This fight could boil down to who makes the first mistake, since it seems unreasonable to think these two titans can last the entire 25 minutes throwing that kind of heat in both directions.
Prediction: Rodrigues def. Cannonier by knockout
145 lbs.: Calvin Kattar vs. Youssef Zalal
Calvin “The Boston Finisher” Kattar
Record: 23-8 | Age: 36 | Betting line: +310
Wins: 11 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 10 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 6 DEC
Height: 5’11“ | Reach: 72” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.76 | Striking accuracy: 39%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 6.75 | Striking Defense: 54%
Takedown Average: 0.39 (29% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 72%
Current Ranking: No. 10 | Last fight: Decision loss to Aljamain Sterling
Youssef “The Moroccan Devil” Zalal
Record: 16-5-1 | Age: 28 | Betting line: -395
Wins: 4 KO/TKO, 9 SUB, 3 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 5 DEC
Height: 5’10“ | Reach: 72” | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.84 | Striking accuracy: 49%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 1.71 | Striking Defense: 65%
Takedown Average: 2.34 (35% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 59%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Submission victory over Jack Shore
Calvin Kattar is nicknamed “The Boston Finisher” but hasn’t finished a fight in nearly five years. In addition, the aging featherweight — who turns 37 in just a few weeks — has now lost three straight and four of his last five. You can try to explain away his knee injury opposite Arnold Allen and point to the Josh Emmett defeat as a split nod, but no matter how you slice it, Kattar is struggling to find the win column, an issue that arose in the wake of his prolonged beating against Max Holloway in early 2021. Not unlike the other marquee fighters on this card, Kattar is a striker first but can also crank out offensive wrestling when the need arises, like he did in decision victories over Giga Chikadze (UFC Vegas 46) and Andre Fili (UFC 214). The promotion will probably let Kattar continue to compete regardless of his wins and losses because “The Boston Finisher” has already racked up a whopping five “Fight of the Night” bonuses and never takes his foot off the gas. I just can’t help but wonder how much is left in the tank after so many back-and-forth wars.
“Definitely not the way we want things going,” Kattar told reporters during the UFC Vegas 102 media day. “I mean, I don’t want to beat a dead horse, but I thought I won that first fight of the three with Emmett. Then the way things worked with Allen with the knee, just unfortunate. I feel like that fight didn’t even happen. Lost a fight to a former champ, and all of a sudden here we are, 0-3, you know Not the way you want to write it up, but it’s dangerous kind of focusing too much behind you and too far ahead of you. Right now, we got Youssel Zalal on Saturday. Tough opponent, four-fight win streak — that’s not easy to do in the UFC. Definitely deserving of a Top 10, Top 15 challenge, and I’m ready to go out and give him a fight come Saturday night.”
Youssef Zalal is nearly a -400 favorite, which seems ridiculous to me when you consider Zalal is not even ranked in the Top 15. “The Moroccan Devil” had a forgettable start to his UFC career back in early 2020, going 3-3 with one draw. Since then, Zalal has been nothing short of unstoppable, compiling six straight victories with all six wins ending by way of knockout or submission. It’s worth noting that three of those wins came for Sparta Combat League in Colorado against opponents you wouldn’t recognize and probably never heard of. The other three came during his recent comeback and two of those opposing fighters, Jack Shore and Jarno Errens, are no longer competing in UFC. That’s a fairly-long winded way of saying that Zalal is way overpriced on the moneyline against a veteran slugger like Kattar, who’s only been finished once in UFC (and that was from a second-round knee injury). I’m not sure Zalal is the guy to do something that strikers like Max Holloway and Josh Emmett could not and Kattar’s wrestling should be enough to thwart the submission.
“He’s fighting for his position, and that’s a scary fighter to fight,” Zalal told MMA Junkie. “Obviously everyone knows who Calvin Kattar is. He’s been in the game for so long and been through so many crazy fights, so I’m definitely preparing for the best Calvin I can ever prepare for it. He’s going to be a very dangerous Calvin, and I’m excited for that puzzle. I’m not underestimating Calvin. I don’t care if he’s on a five-fight losing streak or a three-fight losing streak, I’m preparing for the best Calvin. I’m preparing to show people how good I am, and how good my boxing is and how good my striking is.”
How good is it? This fight is sure to tell us. My biggest concern is all the injuries Kattar has suffered over the last few years and I’m not entirely confident in his durability. That said, he benefits here because “The Boston Finisher” only needs to last 15 minutes against his younger (and perhaps hungrier) foe. I expect Zalal to have his moments, but in the end it’s going to be Kattar’s blue-collar consistency and never-say-die attitude that brings him to the promised land. Another “Fight of the Night” bonus would not surprise me.
Prediction: Kattar def. Zalal by decision
Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 102 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 102 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ preliminary card bouts at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 102 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here. For the updated and finalized “Cannonier vs. Rodrigues” fight card and ESPN+ lineup click here.