Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 79 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Sept. 23, 2023) on ESPN+ from inside the promotion’s APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, featuring a lightweight main event between Top 10 title hopefuls Rafael Fiziev and Mateusz Gamrot, a five-round headliner with major title implications for late 2023 and beyond.
Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the featherweight scrap between Dan Ige and fruit-deprived Bryce Mitchell, check out Patrick Stumberg’s breakdowns for the UFC Vegas 79 preliminary card — which he wrote while learning the bass line to Sgt. Baker by Primus — by clicking here and here. For the latest “Fiziev vs. Gamrot” odds and betting props courtesy of our fiscal friends over at Draft Kings go here.
For the rest of the UFC Vegas 79 main card predictions click here.
155 lbs.: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot
Rafael “Ataman” Fiziev
Record: 12-2 | Age: 30 | Betting line: -165
Wins: 8 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 3 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5’8“ | Reach: 71” | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.06 | Striking accuracy: 51%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 5.17 | Striking Defense: 48%
Takedown Average: 0.31 (40% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 90%
Current Ranking: No. 6 | Last fight: Majority decision loss to Justin Gaethje
Mateusz “Gamer” Gamrot
Record: 22-2, 1 NC | Age: 32 | Betting line: +135
Wins: 7 KO/TKO, 5 SUB, 10 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 5’10“ | Reach: 70” | Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.03 | Striking accuracy: 51%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.23 | Striking Defense: 60%
Takedown Average: 4.54 (31% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 90%
Current Ranking: No. 7 | Last fight: Split decision win over Jalin Turner
Rafael Fiziev comes into his UFC Vegas 79 headliner after suffering just the second defeat of his pro career, a majority decision loss to lightweight action man Justin Gaethje at UFC 286 back in March. Their three-round war was good enough for “Fight of the Night” honors, the third time he’s captured that distinction in what marked his sixth straight post-fight performance bonus dating back to summer 2020. I think we’re all in agreement that Fiziev, an experienced Muay Thai fighter, is one of the most exciting combatants at 155 pounds (or any division, for that matter) and will likely turn in another fan-pleaser this weekend at APEX.
This will be the second main event billing for “Ataman” but certainly not his last.
Mateusz Gamrot has been equally exceptional over the last three years and like Fiziev, has made it a habit to bag extra cash by way of post-fight performance bonuses, which includes two “Fight of the Night” honors. That’s not something you typically see from a fighter with a wrestling-based offense, proving Gamrot is a dynamic attacker who offers more than just takedowns and ground control. That’s probably why “Gamer” has more finishes (12) than decisions (10) in 22 career wins. It’s also worth noting that in both of his defeats, “Gamer” still outwrestled Beneil Dariush and Guram Kutateladze 9-0.
So who wins this fight?
It’s hard to make a case for Fiziev, despite his striking advantage. The looming threat of Gamrot’s takedowns will severely limit — if not entirely neutralize — “Ataman’s” kicking game, which is a big part of his overall offense. In addition, we’ve seen cardio issues from Fiziev in the later rounds and he should expect a relentless, punishing pace from “Gamer.” I’m not even sure the one-hitter quitter is on the table considering Gamrot has never been finished, so all we’re left with is 25 minutes of Fiziev trying to create space to work his hands … and that space will never come.
Prediction: Gamrot def. Fiziev by decision
145 lbs.: Bryce Mitchell vs. Dan Ige
Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell
Record: 15-1 | Age: 28 | Betting line: -205
Wins: 0 KO/TKO, 9 SUB, 6 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 5’10“ | Reach: 70” | Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.48 | Striking accuracy: 59%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 1.71 | Striking Defense: 57%
Takedown Average: 3.26 (44% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 33%
Current Ranking: No. 10 | Last fight: Submission loss to Ilia Topuria
Dan “50k” Ige
Record: 17-6 | Age: 32 | Betting line: +170
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 5 SUB, 7 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 6 DEC
Height: 5’7“ | Reach: 71” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.96 | Striking accuracy: 45%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.69 | Striking Defense: 57%
Takedown Average: 1.15 (26% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 56%
Current Ranking: No. 12 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Nate Landwehr
Dan Ige has been a pleasant (if somewhat unexpected) surprise at 145 pounds. The Hawaiian captured a submission victory on Season 1 of Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in summer 2017, but did not earn a contract, because White and Co. were far more selective when the show first hit the airwaves. Fortunately for Ige, the promotion needed a featherweight fill-in at UFC 220, leading to a call-up and subsequent run through the 145-pound ranks, landing him at No. 12 after six years and a respectable 9-5 record. Along the way he’s captured impressive wins over the likes of Mirsad Bektic and Edson Barboza, among others, making him a tough out for any 145-pounder.
Including his UFC Vegas 79 opponent.
Like Ige, Mitchell had to first prove himself before earning a UFC contract, doing work on Season 27 of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF). While he came up short against eventual two-time winner Brad Katona, “Thug Nasty” would earn a call back for the live finale, where he bested Tyler Diamond before racking up an impressive 6-1 UFC record. His most recent outing saw him trounced by top contender Ilia Topuria, though it was later learned that Mitchell was suffering from the flu (but took the fight anyway). That doesn’t mean he would have defeated “El Matador,” it just means we saw the worst possible version of Mitchell, so it’s hard to use that performance when breaking down his Ige fight.
That said, we’ll give it the old college try.
Ige faces the same uphill battle that Fiziev does in the main event but does not have the technical striking that “Ataman” does — but he does have knockout power. That has to be a concern for Mitchell, who will undoubtedly use his wrestling here to keep “50k” at bay. “Thug Nasty” doesn’t get the respect he deserves because of his nonsense outside the cage but he’s a dangerous grappler who is only 28 and just now hitting his prime. Ige will have to forget about his gameplan and try to bury Mitchell with every punch because the Arkansan only needs to win two of three rounds, which should not be too difficult for a wrestler of his caliber — assuming that whole fruit tree fiasco hasn’t already broken him.
Prediction: Mitchell def. Ige by decision
Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 79 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 79 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ preliminary card bouts at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the ESPN+ main card start time at 7 p.m. ET.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 79 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here. For the updated and finalized “Fiziev vs. Gamrot” fight card and ESPN+ line up click here.