Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Heavyweight hitters Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Shamil Gaziev will go to war TONIGHT (Sat., March 2, 2024) inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada at UFC Vegas 87.
Rozenstruik enters his sixth main event having lost three of his last four. He hasn’t lost to anyone outside the Top 10, however, and every unranked foe that has stepped into the cage opposite “Bigi Boy” has hit the canvas quickly. He’s somewhat stuck in place as a result, unable to move up but forced to put his position on the line here. Gaziev, meanwhile, is largely an unknown quantity for UFC fans. The undefeated Russian scored a successful debut knockout back in December, and consequently, he’s moved from “Prelim” fighter to half of the main event.
Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:
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Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Record: 13-5
Key Wins: Alistair Overeem (UFC on ESPN 7), Junior dos Santos (UFC 252), Augusto Sakai (UFC Vegas 28), Chris Daukaus (UFC 282), Andrei Arlovski (UFC 244)
Key Losses: Jailton Almeida (UFC Charlotte), Alexander Volkov (UFC Vegas 56), Ciryl Gane (UFC Vegas 20), Francis Ngannou (UFC 249), Curtis Blaydes (UFC 266)
Keys to Victory: Rozenstruik has some of the heaviest hands in the Heavyweight division, meaning he’s one of the most powerful punchers in the entire sport. Between his kickboxing and MMA careers, Rozenstruik has stopped 76 fights via knockout!
In this bout, Rozenstruik will have a considerable advantage on the feet. Gaziev hits plenty hard, but he tends to work in short combinations, and he moves on a straight line. Realistically, he seems a prime target for the Rozenstruik check left hook that has felled many men.
The takedowns could be a bigger issue. As one would expect from an undefeated Dagestani prospect, Gaziev can wrestle pretty well, and he’s punishing from top position. If Gaziev puts Rozenstruik in the same positions that Jailton Almeida achieved, “Bigi Boy” is in for some pain.
Fortunately, Gaziev’s shot is considerably less athletic than the Brazilian. Rozenstruik mostly has to avoid the fence and press off at the hips in the clinch, and those two tactics alone will shut down most of his upper body takedown attempts. Then, Rozenstruik can punish his attempts to punch into the clinch.
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Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Shamil Gaziev
Record: 12-0
Key Wins: Martin Buday (UFC 296), Greg Velasco (Contenders Series 2023), Kirill Kornilov (Ares FC 7)
Key Losses: None
Keys to Victory: Gaziev is a full-sized Heavyweight with 11 wins before the final bell. He likes to press his opponent backwards with powerful swings, then he’ll usually duck into the clinch and look to muscle his opponent to the floor.
Wrestling is the most obvious path to victory here. Rozenstruik isn’t a perfect kickboxer by any means, but given how often he puts opponents to sleep, striking with him unnecessarily is a bad move.
There is a slight issue. Gaziev’s takedown attempts tend to be pretty straight forward, as he’ll push or punch into the clinch, lock his hands, then try to finish the body lock. Rozenstruik’s first layer takedown defense generally is pretty good, particularly in the clinch. Almeida was able to work around that by having the best blast double in the division, whereas Blaydes was forced to chain wrestle quite a bit.
Gaziev should probably have a plan for if the body lock doesn’t work. Ideally, I’d like to see him working the inside and outside trip, or even changing levels into the single leg. He has to mix up his takedown finishes to get on top, at which point, he should be firmly in control.
Bottom Line
It’s not a good main event, but it should be an interesting fight.
Rozenstruik hasn’t changed all that much from his UFC debut to right now. He’s still a heavy-handed but limited kickboxer, and his ground game is thoroughly okay. At Heavyweight, that’s good enough to be ranked but not make it into the title mix. Unless something drastic changes, his position is unlikely to move around much.
Meanwhile, Gaziev has a chance to go from unranked recent debutant to Top 10 Heavyweight. It’s a major step up in competition, but he’s got the experience and credentials to make things interesting. A win shakes up the division, introducing a new talent to the upper tier and setting up another major fight next for the Russian.
At UFC Vegas 87, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Shamil Gaziev will go to war in the main event. Which man earns the victory?