Get a detailed breakdown of the betting lines for UFC Vegas 91, which is set to hit UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, this weekend (Sat., April 27, 2024), including best bets, underdogs, favorites and much more!
After the UFC’s biggest blockbuster of 2024, the promotion returns to its usual haunt inside the UFC Apex this weekend (Sat., April 27, 2024) when Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez headlines UFC Vegas 91 in Las Vegas, Nevada. It is a decidedly less-than-stellar fight card, and our typical UFC betting advisor Patrick Stumberg is moving forward to greener pastures. I’ll be filling in, aiming to help readers pull a profit out of this dumpster fire of a fight card.
Let’s dig in …
What Went Wrong at UFC 300?
Jalin Turner
Turner started off his bout versus Renato Moicano as most expected, shucking off takedowns and stunning the Brazilian badly in the first. Then, he tried to score a walk-off knockout, the finish didn’t materialize, and Moicano rallied in the second with his grappling prowess. Maybe the bet hits if “The Tarantula” follows Moicano to the floor throwing bombs?
What Went Right?
Stumberg walked away with a major win at UFC 300! Seven of his eight bets came to fruition.
- Jessica Andrade edged out Marina Rodriguez en route to a close decision win.
- Diego Lopes overwhelmed Sodiq Yusuff almost immediately for an early finish.
- Bobby Green beat up Jim Miller, and the over 2.5 rounds prop bet hit.
- Jiri Prochazka rallied in the second to stop Aleksandar Rakic, and Zhang Weili dominated Xiaonan Yan for a successful parlay.
- Kayla Harrison’s submission win over Holly Holm together with Alex Pereira’s successful title defense equaled another successful parlay.
- Aljamain Sterling dominated Calvin Kattar but he didn’t finish, so that’s another over 2.5 rounds prop bet success story.
- Finally, Aljamain Sterling plus Zhang Weili was a winning combination.
UFC Vegas 91 Odds For The Under Card:
Rani Yahya (+330) vs. Victor Henry (-520)
Austin Hubbard (+140) vs. Michal Figlak (-185)
Don’Tale Mayes (-105) vs. Caio Machado (-115)
Marnic Mann (+250) vs. Ketlen Souza (-360)
Ivana Petrovic (-520) vs. Liang Na (+330)
Gabriel Benítez (-190) vs. Maheshate Hayisaer (+155)
Oh boy, this undercard is fairly grim. I like to bet on fighters I consider to be known quantities, which is much more difficult when we’re talking about newbies with 1.5 UFC fights between them.
Three huge favorites and three more reasonable gaps in odds. Alas, I have no massive upset prediction for you: Na has only historically beaten mediocre opposition and stands 0-3 inside the Octagon, Mann is in a similar situation but has only lost one UFC fight, and the great Rani Yahya is simply too old (age 39) to beat good fighters like Victor Henry.
I do like the odds on Henry vs. Yahya going long, however. Yahya is historically durable, whereas Henry is more of a volume fighter than knockout artist. Over 2.5 at -150 sounds good to me!
I also like a couple of the smaller underdogs here. Firstly, Austin Hubbard is a solid fighter even if his UFC record isn’t the best. He has more UFC experience than Figlak, and his historic problem is getting overwhelmed by superior athletes. Figlak hasn’t proven himself to be a big hitter or dominant wrestler, meaning Hubbard should be able to show off his technical kickboxing edge.
In addition, a small flyer on Hayisaer seems reasonable. He doesn’t have any notable technical advantages, but he’s a decade younger and is facing a smaller opponent. Plus, Benitez’s recent performances have been flat.
UFC Vegas 91 Odds For The Main Card:
Matheus Nicolau (-205) vs. Alex Perez (+150)
Ryan Spann (-210) vs. Bogdan Guskov (+155)
Ariane Lipski (+125) vs. Karine Silva (-155)
Austen Lane (+190) vs. Jhonata Diniz (-265)
Jonathan Pearce (-170) vs. David Onama (+135)
Tim Means (+235) vs. Uros Medic (-340)
It still ain’t much, but the top half of the card is a lot more interesting!
From the top down: Nicolau deserves to be a huge favorite here, and he’s a relatively minor one. The Brazilian is one of the absolute best Flyweights in the world, a well-rounded and skilled counter puncher with great ground skills. Perez, conversely, hasn’t won a fight since 2020 and seems to have lost much of the aggression that once made him a contender.
I wouldn’t advise touching Spann vs. Guskov with a ten-foot pole. Too much power!
Pearce vs. Onama is a good one. Pearce showed that he could handle a really physical and dangerous athlete in his last fight, avoiding the biggest shots of Joanderson Brito in a quality performance … until he slipped up into a guillotine choke. Onama doesn’t have the jiu-jitsu prowess of “Tubarao,” so he’s more likely to end up stuck on bottom for good.
Finally, the veteran Tim Means feels worth a flyer. He’s struggled a bit lately, but “The Dirty Bird” hasn’t been fighting poorly. There are still good performances left in his career! Uros Medic is a quality kickboxer, but he thoroughly broke beneath aggression and pressure of Myktybek Orolbai. Means may not be a grinder in the exact mold of Orolbai, but he knows how to make a fight ugly and take over as his opponents fatigue.
UFC Vegas 91 Best Bets:
- Rani Yahya vs. Victor Henry over 2.5 rounds -150
- Austin Hubbard +140
- Maheshate Hayisaer (+155)
- Matheus Nicolau (-205) and Jonathan Pearce (-170) parlay
- Tim Means (+235)
It’s not UFC 300, but there will surely be some fun fights! Until Saturday, Maniacs.