UFC Vegas 96 Best Betting Props, Parlays And Picks

UFC Vegas 96 goes down this weekend (Sat., Aug. 24, 2024) with the surging Caio Borralho meeting Jared Cannonier. Checkout all the odds right here …

UFC Vegas 96 takes place this weekend (Sat., Aug. 24, 2024) inside UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event has two Middleweights hoping to challenge defending champion Dricus du Plessis (who dispatched his first challenger last Saturday). Jared Cannonier has fought for the belt before (and lost), while Caio Borralho has never headlined; however, the Brazilian phenom has been storming up the rankings lately. The winner of their fight probably won’t get the next crack at DDP (that seems reserved for one Sean Strickland), but they could be in line for a No. 1 contender bout (versus the winner of Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev … if that actually happens).

Our co-main event is veteran women’s Strawweight, Angela Hill. She will compete in her 25th UFC contest this weekend. Her opponent is the lively Tabatha Ricci. UFC Vegas 96’s main card also plays host to the current crop of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) finalists, with Ryan Loder fighting Robert Valentin and Kaan Ofli meeting Mairon Santos. The main card also has ultimate gatekeeper, Neil Magny, versus the undefeated Michael Morales.

The “Prelims” are headlined by Zach Reese vs. Jose Medina. The undercard also has Viacheslav Borschev vs. James Llontop and Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs. Josiane Nunes, among other bouts.

Let’s checkout the moneylines on “Cannonier vs. Borralho” and all the other bouts on the card …

UFC Vegas 96 Main Card Money Line Odds

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Jared Cannonier (+190) vs. Caio Borralho (-235)

Borralho did a good job of shedding his boring tag last time out. Indeed, the vanguard of the Fighting Nerds put away Paul Craig with a second round technical knockout at UFC 301. That win took his record to 16-1 (6-0 in UFC) and opened the door for this step up in competition.

Cannonier, meanwhile, lost to Nassourdine Imavov two months ago in the main event of UFC Louisville. That fight ended via fourth round technical knockout. However, referee Jason Herzog was a little early when he waved off the fight (see that here). Cannonier was hurt, but seemed to have regrouped when the fight was called off. Cannonier likely feels extra aggrieved because he was winning the fight (albeit very closely up until that moment). The loss had Cannonier drop back to No. 5 in the Middleweight rankings. He’ll drop far further should he lose to Borralho (who is ranked No. 12).

Borralho is a pretty decent favorite here. The critique on Cannonier remains that he is 40-years-old. That’s part of the reason he was an underdog to Imavov, too. However, he looked just as fit and potent as Imavov did during the fight. So, I’m not ready to count out Cannonier based on age alone.

My pick is Borralho, though, and that’s because of his activity with takedowns. Borralho lands just under two takedowns per 15 minutes at a 76 percent accuracy. Cannonier’s defense is 61 percent; however, Cannonier’s defense is better than that 61 percent suggests. The last takedown artist he faced was Jack Hermansson and he held him to one of six takedown attempts. I think Borralho’s better at both securing takedowns and keeping control of opponents on the ground than Hermansson is.

I also think Borralho will be extremely motivated to take down Cannonier. Borralho is no scrub on the feet (as proved by his detonation of Craig), but if he stands with Cannonier he’s likely going to be on the receiving end of a lot of punches and grinding action against the cage.

Borralho has shown that he doesn’t care about getting booed or disappointing his bosses with a boring win, so I think he’ll air on the side of caution in his main event debut and look to blanket Cannonier for an intelligent victory.

Cannonier will want to keep the fight standing, but I think his aggression will get the better of him and he won’t be able to stop himself foraying forwards. When he does that, Borralho will have the openings he needs to take this fight to the ground.

Prediction: Caio Borralho via unanimous decision

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Angela Hill (-110) vs. Tabatha Ricci (-110)

Borralho wasn’t the only fighter who showed us something different last time out. At UFC Vegas 92, Hill tapped Luana Pinheiro with a mounted guillotine (see it here) for her first career submission win. That win was a welcome sight to us who thought we had Hill figured out as just a kickboxer who is very used to going to the judges’ scorecards.

That submission win shouldn’t overshadow what else Hill was doing in the Pinheiro fight, though. Her striking looked on point and she actually had her opponent hurt, thus forcing her into a desperation takedown.

Ricci, meanwhile, comes into the fight off of a split decision win over Tecia Pennington at UFC St. Louis. That was an incredibly close fight with Ricci grinding out the win thanks to her five minutes of control time. She earned that control time despite going 1 of 10 on takedown attempts. She was outstruck 80-54 in significant strikes, too. I scored the fight for Pennington, but it wasn’t a robbery — just a very close fight.

Before that, Ricci lost another very close fight, to Loopy Godinez. In that fight Ricci whiffed on six takedown attempts and was again out-struck, but only by 12 significant strikes this time.

I think Ricci is going to struggle against Hill here. Hill has better takedown defense than Pennington and is a more technical and varied striker. The diversity in her striking has really come along lately, as she’s targeted her opponent’s bodies. Ricci is very much a head hunter, but I don’t think she’s a threat to knock many people out. I much prefer Hill’s chances of hurting her to the body and using that to build a case for the judges.

Hill will have a three inch reach advantage in this fight, too. That, and her near 50 percent accuracy, has me thinking she’s going to find a lot of joy on the feet this Saturday.

Prediction: Angela Hill via unanimous decision

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Ryan Loder (+155) vs. Robert Valentin (-185)

TUF just isn’t what it used to be. Our Middleweight finalists here have a combined age of 62 and neither has any more upside than what we’ve seen in TUF house. Robert Valentin is a hard-hitting finisher (against fellow castmates and dudes on the Swiss regional scene) and Ryan Loder is an All-American wrestler who isn’t particularly athletic or dynamic. The oddsmakers think Valentin will be able to hurt Loder before he can be dragged down and held on the mat. I guess I’ll go with that, too. Valentin also has twice as many professional fights as Loder.

Prediction: Robert Valentin via technical knockout, round one

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Kaan Ofli (+165) vs. Mairon Santos (-200)

Mairon Santos is a raw 24-year-old who might develop beyond what we’ve seen thus far. Kaan Ofli is the finished article at 31-years-old. Ofli seems the better all round fighter at this point of time and is capable of applying lots of pressure to Santos and potentially finishing him. Santos has some red flags on his record (missed weight, canceled bouts, visa issues) so he might be worth fading until we’ve seen him truly show up in UFC.

Prediction: Kaan Ofli via technical knockout, round two

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Neil Magny (+600) vs. Michael Morales (-1000)

Wow … Vegas bookies are not fans of Magny here, but that’s nothing new. The 37-year-old will be making his 33rd walk to the Octagon on Saturday. And he’ll do so with the longest odds of his career. He was +370 when he fought Shavkat Rakhmonov, +400 versus Gilbert Burns and +380 versus Ian Machado Garry. Magny is coming off a technical knockout win over Mike Mallott as a +300 underdog (see it here).

The undefeated Michael Morales (16-0) hasn’t competed since Nov. 2023, taking a unanimous decision over Jake Matthews. Prior to that, he decisioned Max Griffin and TKO’d Adam Fugitt (see it here).

Magny is the dictionary definition of gatekeeper at this point of his career. And, at Welterweight, whether you win or lose against him is a pretty good indicator of how well you’re career is going to go in the Octagon.

The 25-year-old Morales is an athletic specimen with a high ceiling for both his striking and wrestling game. He looked very impressive in his win over Matthews (who is also regressing to the role of gatekeeper).

If Morales picks up from where he left off, he’ll be the busier striker in this fight. But, Magny is very tough, and doesn’t get finished, and he’s rarely blown away by volume strikers. I think Morales will out land Magny on the feet, but I don’t think he’s going to do that enough to really hurt the veteran.

I do think Morales will find success with takedowns, though. Magny has struggled to stay on his feet throughout his career. His defense on the ground is pretty good, though, with his submission losses coming to elite grapplers only.

I think this is a closer fight than those odds suggest and I think you’re mad if you’re taking Morales at -1000. I don’t see how you can be totally confident that Magny won’t Magny him for 15 minutes, especially with Morales coming off a near year-long lay-off.

My pick is Morales, because I think he will mix his martial arts nicely and earn a decision. But I wouldn’t bet on that because I, unlike Vegas, respect what Magny can do to prospects who are highly favored to beat him.

Prediction: Michael Morales via unanimous decision

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Edmen Shahbazyan (-310) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+245)

Shahbazyan was not ready for primetime back in 2020. A third round technical knockout loss to Derek Brunson (after a thorough beatdown — see it here) gave him the first defeat of his young career. That was followed by a decision loss to Jack Hermansson and a brutal crucifix loss to Imavov (see that here). After having the competition level ratcheted down a level, he’s gone 2-1, beating Dalcha Lungiambula and AJ Dobson via technical knockout and losing to Anthony Hernandez via technical knockout (see that here).

Meerschaert, meanwhile, has had his fair share of brutal losses, too. He was scorched by Joe Pyfer last year (see it here) and was KO’d by Khamzat Chimaev back in 2020 (see that here). Last time out he submitted Bryan Barberena (see it here).

This is an interesting match-up in that Shahbazyan has been known to fade down the stretch and Meerschaert has been known to start cold and get caught early on. This might mean that Shahbazyan goes all out for an early finish. If he fails to get it … it could be trouble for him.

I think Shahbazyan will be able to handle Meerschaert early. He’s ten year’s younger and I like his chances against Meerschaert’s porous takedown defense (34%). Shahbazyan has a great chance of taking Meerschaert down in the first round and then hurting him with ground and pound.

Prediction: Edmen Shahbazyan via technical knockout, round one

UFC Vegas 96 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

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Zach Reese (-650) vs. Jose Medina (+425)

Reese has had a bit of an odd start to his UFC career. The 30-year-old debuted in Contender Series in August, 2023 and then got his call up to the big show a few months later. His proper debut didn’t go very well. It ended with a slam induced TKO at the hands of Cody Brundage (see it here). Reese was a -225 favorite for that fight.

At UFC Louisville he blew away Julian Marquez with an uppercut in 20-seconds (see it here). He was a slight underdog for that fight.

Against Medina, Reese finds himself as the big favorite. The Marquez win is certainly affecting the odds here. However, how much stock should we really put in that given that Marquez has looked like a guy who should be retired in his last few bouts. Reese has an exciting record on paper, seven wins all via stoppage. However, he takes a fair bit of damage in his bouts and he’s not exactly a young prospect. I feel like this is another heavy favorite on this card that deserves a buyer beware label.

All we’ve seen of Jose Medina is a unanimous decision loss to Magomed Gadzhiyasulov on the Contender Series. Gadzhiyasulov looks a pretty decent prospect given his gutsy win over Brendson Ribeiro on the UFC Saudi Arabia card.

Reese is a very big Middleweight at 6’ 4”. He’ll have a three inch reach advantage over the 6’ Medina. The pick needs to be Reese because he’s been more tested at the UFC level and shown an ability to finish fights on the feet, in top control and off his back. I’m wary of such a big line against someone who is still so raw, though.

Prediction: Zachary Reese via submission, round two

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Viacheslav Borshchev (-235) vs. James Llontop (+190)

It was not a good showing from Borshchev last time out at UFC St. Louis. The Russian striker was hurt and outstruck by the grappler Chase Hooper (who gave the performance of his life that night — see it here). That dropped his UFC record to a pretty poor 2-3-1.

Llontop is also looking for redemption.

He was shocked by Chris Padilla at UFC Vegas 91, losing via first round submission as a -450 favorite. He had those odds despite having just a unanimous decision win on Contender Series to his name.

These guys are battling for their UFC lives in this fight. And both have a shot of coming out on top. They’re both strikers and neither looks apt at being able to expose the other’s poor takedown and grappling defense. If this is going to be a boxing match I’m taking a chance with Llontop. He has the same body type as Hooper and a four-inch reach advantage. Borschev is brutally effective when in close, but Hooper was able to hurt him at range and keep him on the outside. Maybe Llontop can do the same.

Prediction: James Llontop via technical knockout, round two

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Jacqueline Cavalcanti (-200) vs. Josiane Nunes (+170)

Neither of these women have achieved much in UFC to date. Jacqueline Cavalcanti is 1-0 with a decision win over Zarah Fairn. Josiane Nunes is 2-1 with decision wins over Zarah Fairn and Ramona Pascual. Her loss is a decision to Chelsea Chandler. Fairn and Pascual aren’t in the UFC either and Chandler is on notice after her stinker against Yana Santos. I’m not expecting a ton to happen in this fight, but Cavalcanti is by far the more exciting and athletic option here. She’s also much bigger than Nunes (four inch height and three inch reach advantage). This is going to be a boxing/staring match, but Cavalcanti is going to be the one landing more punches and leg kicks on route to a decision win.

Prediction: Jacqueline Cavalcanti via unanimous decision

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Cong Wang (-1150) vs. Victoria Leonardo (+650)

Another massive mismatch … if you believe the oddsmakers.

Victoria Leonardo remains in UFC despite going 1-3. To be fair, she’s faced some very tough opponents. Manon Fiorot knocked her out standing, Melissa Gatto broke her arm and Natalia Silva got her with a wicked head kick. Leonardo’s lone win in the promotion is a decision over Mandy Bohm.

Wang, meanwhile, is coming out of the Road to UFC pipeline. She scored a first round submission there to take her record to 5-0. The biggest talking point on Cong is that she has a kickboxing win over Valentina Shevchenko.

If Cong has just one inch of talent, that should be enough to end the battle-worn Leonardo’s night here and probably her run in UFC.

Prediction: Cong Wang via technical knockout, round one

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Dennis Buzukja (+125) vs. Francis Marshall (-150)

Francis Marshall is coming in on short notice to face Dennis Buzukja. Buzukja was initially booked to fight Danny Silva. I think Buzukja has the striking edge and I like his takedown defense (72 percent). Marshall hasn’t fought in a year and this is on a week’s notice. I really don’t like that combo.

Prediction: Dennis Buzukja via unanimous decision

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UFC Vegas 96 Prop Bets, Parlays

Here’s a couple of things that look interesting (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 96 card …

Two-pick parlay: Caio Borralho to beat Jared Cannonier and Angela Hill to beat Tabatha Ricci (+173)

There aren’t many great betting options on this card. Many of these bouts have massive favorites and many of those favorites are unproven at the so-called UFC level. That makes me want to stay away from lots of these bouts. The two fighters I feel most confident in are Borralho and Hill, so I’ll parlay them together to get some plus money. Borralho’s on the rise and I think he’s able to take Cannonier down and control him there. Hill is about to hit 40, but she still looks to be in great shape and she’s made a career out of out-pointing fighters like Ricci.

Robert Valentin to win by Any Knockout, Submission or DQ (+130)

Robert Valentin seems like a pretty fun cat (you’ve heard his Swiss Alps shroom story, right?). And there’s no doubt he can crack. He’s a finisher, or at least he has been against the level of competition he’s faced thus far in his career. Of his 13 fights he’s only gone to a decision twice (once in a loss and once in a win). I don’t think Ryan Loder is a step up in competition for Valentin, so I’m expecting him to get a finish here tonight — by either TKO or submission (60 percent of his wins have come that way).

Caio Borralho to win by submission in round 4 (+2500)

Here’s my dart for the weekend. A lot of this fight is going to take place on the ground and I think Caio Borralho is going to be the one controlling the action there. Jared Cannonier has never been submitted, but he’s at an age now where things that haven’t happened before might just start popping up. Borralho is a wiz on the ground, but he’s only finished 25% of his fights via submission — he’s more of a position over submission guy. Yes, there’s a lot working against this bet, but those odds are too much fun to turn down (especially if I’m just going to put a couple of bucks on it).

Photo by: Joe Sohm/Visions of America/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

UFC Vegas 96 Poll Time

Which of the earlier props and parlays do you like the look of the most?

Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 96 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN/ESPN+).

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