Who’s the better Cowboy? It is most likely Alex Oliveira, who is an actual cowboy. Luckily, we’re not here to to watch a display of horsemanship, pistols and ropin’ steers. We’re here to watch a fistfight.
Two former lightweights turned welterweights with the same nickname battle for control of the octagon shaped ranch this February 21, 2016 at the Consol Energy Center in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
One sentence summary
David: The ultimate cowboy battle for ranch supremacy… or something.
Phil: Shootout at the Muai Thai Corral.
Stats
Donald Cerrone 28-7-1 NC
Odds: -300
Alex Oliveira 14-2-1 Draw -1 NC
Odds: +250
History / Introduction to the fighters
David: Cerrone is finally moving up in weight like all the cool kids. After a lifetime of pugilism, he’s ready to avoid the weight cut, and begin anew. He’s coming off a pretty brutal loss to Rafael dos Anjos. But that’s always been his MO; either win spectacularly or fail spectacularly. And he doesn’t lose often. This move is still kind of a question mark. I think his style is actually quite fine for the division. The stigma 170 used to have of nothing but Hughesian dynamics has waned. In its place are fighters akin to what lightweight has to offer. But that’s also what makes the move curious.
Phil: As long as Cerrone is the same guy he’ll have a place in whatever division he wants. The dos Anjos fight is an aberration in more ways than one- I reckon the fans and Cowboy himself both know that he’s just not mentally cut out for title fights. He does not enjoy the burdens of expectations at all, and would way rather just be crazy Cowboy, taking fights at the drop of a dime. I think he can still do that up a division, although he’ll likely get his momentum stopped further away from the peak. That’s, of course, assuming he’s the same Cerrone. I feel like I’ve been saying it for years, but when does this insane lifestyle start to take it’s toll?
David: Oliveira came out of nowhere. He had a ton of fights packed into a small window of time before getting the call, and then lost in his UFC. To casual fans, the matchup likely inspires “Oliviera?? Which one?” responses. But with the cowboy hat, and entertaining style, he’ll be distinguishing himself in victory or defeat.
Phil: Cowboy is as Cowboy does. Like his namesake, Oliveira likes action, and often. With a ton of physical gifts and an innate knack for violence, there’s a solid chance he’s going to be the same kind of blood’n’guts mainstay that Cerrone’s become. The difference is that one Cowboy is at the beginning of his lucrative action-fighting career, and the other is in the later acts, and thus question is if this represents the young whippersnapper getting a lesson taught to him by the old hand, or the passing of the torch.
What are the stakes?
David: Not sure, to be honest. In a division like welterweight where the rankings are fairly rigid in UFC terms, Oliveira winning will mean potentially nothing short term. But Cerrone winning could be the kind of thing Dana will push. It just depends on how. And I wonder if Cerrone will get the same activity he got at lightweight.
Phil: Yeah, not much for a main event. The main thing is that Oliveira will get a pretty big boost if he beats Cerrone. Donald is many things, but an easy out he is not, and he’s only lost to the top shelf fighters in the deepest division around. Even if an Oliveira win comes purely due to Cowboy falling apart (which, as mentioned, has to happen at some point), he can make some real headway in whatever division he chooses to make his mark.
Where do they want it?
David: Cerrone has always been a striker not as versatile as advertised, but more efficient than assumed as a result. He’s a kickboxer built on the strong of knees and kicks at range, and pocket exchanges with elbows and short hooks. He’s a stellar grappler, gifted offensively at throwing his legs and hips into position that force the opponent into unexpected exchanges.
Cerrone is an efficient fight philosopher as well; despite his reputation, he’s not a basket case when it comes to pressuring. His losses can be reduced to losing to the hyperaggressive, and losing to the eccentric.
Phil: After so many fights on the big stage, everyone knows what Cerrone’s flaws are. The flip side of this is that those flaws are surrounded by battle-tested defenses which are very difficult for all but the most elite fighters to get past. Primarily he’s just not terribly quick on his feet and doesn’t have great head movement or sharp hands, all of which leads to his general problem with pressure. Getting to those vulnerabilities, though, is easier said than done. Boxing-only approaches get diced up from the outside by kicks. Closing the distance risks a step knee or an elbow, and takedowns have been almost completely ineffective since his time in the WEC.
David: Oliveira will have no qualms with keeping this fight on the feet. The first thing to note about Oliviera is his movement. Dare I say, boxing afiocionados, that his movement has shades of Emanuel Augustus, bouncing up and down like a marionette needing an exorcism. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=955OG5bRAjA
It’s not entirely predictable, which makes it that much more effective. A striker like Cerrone will definitely have problems, especially if Oliviera uses his movement to pressure more than usual while staying active. His punches are looped around like he’s making shockwave snow angels. He chambers them quick, and supports it all with a kicking game that aims to penetrate rather than pinch.
Phil: Maybe a just a tiny bit less funky than Augustus. But the general principles aren’t far off- using a more squared up stance to build angles off a wide base. Oliveira is still rough-hewn in his approach, but he obviously has a very clear idea of what he wants to do, as well as a hell of a lot of physical toughness and power. The main thing which concerns about him is that he appears to be focusing on his grappling more of late… and I’m not sure if that’s optimal. He’s a good striker, sure, but he still needs a lot of work. Left hook, a rather overused right uppercut and a nice fadeaway counter right (which I don’t think will have much opportunities against Cerrone’s style) are not the kind of foundational pieces which you can build a game off. Increasingly we’ve seen an aggressive but energy-inefficient power grappling and clinch game, where he just hauls opponents around like so many sacks of potatoes.
Insight from previous fights?
David: I can’t really claim one particular fight of reference. Oliviera is the right mix of aggressive and eccentric that has given Cerrone trouble on their own. The question is whether or not Oliviera is defensively capable. The Piotr Hallmann bout was a good look into this question. Cerrone has to be a much more active puncher if wants to make this the kind of fight that’s simply his to lose.
Phil: Alex is talented, but if there is one thing that has historically not troubled Cerrone, then it’s talent, or at least talent on it’s own. His ledger has a number of skilled and athletically gifted fighters who came up against him before they reached the height of their powers: Edson Barboza, Miles Jury, Charles Oliveira. He slaughtered them all. I think the most relevant is probably the criminally underrated Adriano Martins. Physically huge, powerful and aggressive, he gave Cerrone some real problems, shortly before Cowboy punted him upside his head. I think Oliveira is still at that stage in his career- one where he can trouble Cerrone, but not where he’s likely to consistently win rounds or stop him. Cerrone is brilliant at finding cracks of inexperience and driving his foot right through them.
X-Factors
David: Something I think we both predicted even before Dos Anjos caved in Cerrone’s spleen, and something that isn’t exactly some grand insight, but it’s gotta be Cerrone’s body “softness”. It’s one of those elements of analysis you don’t think of but it makes intuitive sense. If you can have a “soft chin”, why not a “soft stomach”? Whatever the anatomical case, Cerrone definitely seems more vulnerable than most to strikes to the body. Oliveira is mostly just a headhunter, but it’s not like he won’t attempt thoracic torment. Especially if his coaches are doing their job.
Phil: I’d like to point out that given the participants, neither of us even bothered to pick “short notice” as an X-factor. Anyway, while I’ve already been a bit down on Oliveira’s chances, he does possess one thing which has given Cerrone problems: reach, with an extra 4 inches over WEC Cowboy. Those who can stand at a distance where they can outland Cowboy with punches without having to impale themselves on the step knee have always had an easier time of it. Even RDA is an example of this- he’s not as tall or rangy as Cowboy, but his punches are long and ramrod-straight.
Prognostication
David: Despite the really strong elements to Olivera’s game that can give Cerrone trouble on their own, Oliviera doesn’t piece them well into the kind of sum I’m confident will finish Donald. Cerrone is still a smart, violent fighter on the feet. Except for Diaz, it’s always been moments of offense that took away Cerrone’s sails and I’m not sure Olivera has the fluid game to exploit Cerrone in singular moments. Donald Cerrone by TKO, round 3.
Phil: I can really see Oliveira hurting Cerrone early, or maybe even finishing him. However, I don’t think he’s shown the propensity for body shots which has been historically necessary to finish Cerrone, or the level of craft to consistently win rounds either on the feet or on the ground. American Cowboy’s getting up there in terms of ring time, but coming in there and trying to out-athlete Donald Cerrone has always been a losing proposition. Donald Cerrone by submission, round 3.