UFC Interim Bantamweight Title Bout: Urijah Faber vs. Renan Barao
Odds: (+155 Faber / -190 Barao )
Betting Pick: Barao
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In the main event of the evening, former WEC Featherweight champion Urijah “The California Kid” Faber will square off against prolific jiu-jitsu ace Renan “Barao” Pegado in a Bantamweight matchup. Faber has fought the best in the world in two weight classes for years now, but Barao is a phenomenal grappler currently riding an insane 28 fight win streak, which makes this a very compelling bout with almost guaranteed title shot implications. With Faber having already suffered a loss to Bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz, a win here is absolutely necessary if he wants to remain relevant in the title picture, while a 29th straight win for Barao will almost certainly guarantee him a shot at the belt.
Urijah Faber was one of the WEC’s biggest stars and one of the top Featherweights in the world for years, but after two losses to Mike Thomas Brown and a defeat at the hands of reigning Featherweight king Jose Aldo, he made the drop to a more natural 135 pounds. He gave Cruz a good fight in his losing effort, and in his last fight rebounded nicely with a submission win over former Bantamweight champion Brian Bowles. One thing that makes Faber so dangerous is his offensive versatility. He is a solid wrestler with good, powerful striking and very dangerous submissions. Against Barao, though, I think he would be very unwise to try and initiate a ground fight, because as good as Faber’s submissions are, Barao’s are substantially better. Instead, Faber should concentrate on using his wrestling defensively and trying to force a standup war, where I think he has the edge in power, accuracy, and hand speed. He just has to be careful not to get too reckless and let Barao capitalize for easy takedowns, because he is going to be in some trouble if he has to work off his back underneath the superior grappler.
Renan “Barao” Pegado is one of the most exciting and prolific grapplers in the UFC at any weight, and he is riding a nearly-unprecedented 28 fight winning streak. Since debuting in the WEC, he has steadily moved up in competition and has easily handled all of his opponents so far. There is no question, though, that Faber is in every way the toughest fighter he has ever had to face. Not only has Pegado never faced anyone who can press the issue on the feet like Faber can, he has never faced anyone as well-prepared to test his strengths on the ground. In order to dictate his kind of fight, Barao is going to have to find a way to crack Faber’s wrestling while also avoiding getting caught by big strikes, which is much easier said than done.
This is a very tough fight to call. Barao is, without a doubt, the best pure grappler in the Bantamweight division, but Faber is easily the more versatile fighter of the two. If Barao can secure takedowns, I really don’t like Faber’s chances of winning this fight having to fight off his back. If Faber can use his wrestling advantage defensively, though, I think he has all the tools to outstrike Barao with relative ease. In the end, I think the slight edge has to go to Pegado. Faber is a good standup fighter, but his biggest strength is the way that he mixes his offense up and throws punches to set up takedowns. I think eventually Faber will either get too reckless on the feet and get taken down, or that he will shoot for a takedown himself and wind up getting swept. Either way, I see Faber making a mistake in the later rounds and Barao capitalizing on it. Pegado by submission.
Prediction: Renan Barao by fourth round Sub.
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