WEC 48: Ben Henderson vs. Donald Cerrone Prediction

The semi-main event is a Lightweight title rematch between champion Benson “Smooth” Henderson and former champion Donald “The Cowboy” Cerrone.  Henderson left their first bout with the championship bout after earning a somewhat controversial split decision in a fight that many considered the best fight of the year, so this is not one you want to miss, because this time the stakes are even higher.

Donald Cerrone is a very tough competitor with a top-level submission game.  His striking is not spectacular to say the least, but he makes up for it with a determined and effective grappling attack.  In the last fight with Henderson, Cerrone wasn’t able to handle Henderson’s relentless pressure, which is why he lost the narrow decision.  He is not going to outbox Henderson and the two are very evenly matched on the ground, so Cerrone is going to have to find a way to take Henderson off his game plan and try to dictate his own pace.

Henderson is also a very accomplished grappler with good wrestling and submissions and a developing standup game.  His top control is pretty good and he can do some ground and pound damage.  One of Henderson’s best attributes is his cardio, which allows him to push the pace of a fight for every second of all five rounds.  That pace won him the fight the first time, and he is going to have to repeat that performance if he wants to keep his title.

I think this fight is Henderson’s to lose.  He is the more versatile of the two fighters and also the more athletic.  In addition, his superior cardio means that he can press the action harder, and in a fight this even that can make all the difference, just like it did last time.  I expect this fight to play out very similarly, with lots of close action, but ultimately Henderson will retain his title with the unanimous decision.