WEC 48: Mike Brown vs. Manvel Gamburyan Prediction

In the first of the evening’s three featured bouts, former Featherweight champ Mike Thomas Brown will face a stiff challenge in UFC veteran Manvel Gamburyan.  Brown looked dominant before being completely overwhelmed by Jose Aldo, but has a versatile skillset that makes him one of the most dangerous fighters in the division.  Gamburyan has also looked impressive, remaining undefeated since his drop down from Lightweight, so this should be a very competitive affair.

Gamburyan, the cousin of another UFC veteran in Karo “The Heat” Parisyan, is a very accomplished fighter in his own right.  A very tough guy with a solid chin and pretty good boxing, Gamburyan’s best work is in the grappling game.  He has excellent top control, good wrestling with nice judo throws from the clinch, and an underrated submission game that makes him a threat to finish on the ground at all times.

Brown, for his part, also has a top-notch ground game with good wrestling and excellent submissions.  As he has proven in his recent outings, his standup has also come a long way and he is now a fairly dangerous striker as well, both in terms of technical proficiency and knockout power.  He is no doubt a better striker than Gamburyan, and is probably better on the ground as well.  Where he is going to have to be careful is in the clinch, where Gamburyan has the tools to rough him up and send him for a ride with his judo.

I think the edge in this one has to go to Brown.  Gamburyan has good takedowns, but he is not a top-level wrestler, and in the standup Brown has a very clear edge in technique and power.  On the ground, the worst case scenario for Brown is that it is a stalemate, and the best case scenario is that he is the superior grappler.  Expect Gamburyan to struggle for the takedown and eventually get caught with a hard shot and pounced on.  Brown by T/KO.