Yan Vs. Ricci Betting Odds, Prediction | UFC Betting Sites

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Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Strawweight contenders Xiaonan Yan vs. Tabatha Ricci will collide this weekend (Sat., Nov. 23, 2024) at UFC Macau from Galaxy Arena in Macau, SRA, China.

Yan ultimately came up short in her 115-pound title bid at UFC 300 back in April, but “Fury” nevertheless managed to impress with a ridiculous display of grit in surviving champion Zhang Weili’s first-round flurry. Prior to that loss, Yan established herself as a Top 5-ranked talent by turning away Mackenzie Dern’s grappling assault and sparking Jessica Andrade in one round (watch it). Ricci, meanwhile, has earned a step up in competition. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Judo black belt holds a 6-1 record at Strawweight, recently defeating veteran contenders like Tecia Pennington and Angela Hill.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Yan vs. Ricci Betting Odds

Xiaonan Yan victory: -198
Xiaonan Yan via TKO/KO/DQ: +450
Xiaonan Yan via submission: +2500
Xiaonan Yan via decision: -120
Tabatha Ricci victory: +164
Tabatha Ricci via TKO/KO/DQ: +2000
Tabatha Ricci via submission: +1300
Tabatha Ricci via decision: +225
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Yan Wins

Yan is one of her division’s best kickboxers. A physically strong Strawweight with excellent conditioning, Yan is very dedicated in her range management, stranding her opponents at distance then convincing them to walk into her counter punches. All told, she’s stopped eight of her opponents via knockout.

This style match up demands sprawl-and-brawl tactics, which fortunately make up Yan’s default game plan. Yan will want to manage her cage position carefully to avoid the fence, where Ricci is more likely to string together takedown and clinch attempts. In the center, it’s going to be more challenging for her shorter opponent to get hold of Yan.

Yan is definitely the sharper range striker here. I’d like to see her scoring with the jab and especially that lancing side kick, weapons that should give Ricci pause in exchanging. If Ricci is pushed back to the point that her punches are predictable, Yan should be able to find counters and avoid takedowns without much issue.

How Ricci Wins

“Baby Shark” is among the smaller women competing at a high-level at 115-pounds. She makes up for that size disadvantage with activity, forcing a hectic pace then capitalizing on the chaos with big takedowns.

It certainly feels like Ricci has to get some top control to win this fight. She’s facing disadvantages in height, reach, power and overall kickboxing experience. Anything is possible in four-ounce gloves, of course, but … it’s hard to imagine Ricci winning this on the feet.

She really only has to earn Yan’s respect there to change the dynamic, however. If Ricci can use feints, false starts, and footwork to close distance before firing in combination, that will go a long way in ensuring some punches land. If she can connect on a few shots, she’ll start to gain her sense of distance and keep Yan honest, two critical factors in ensuring her future takedowns are successful.

Yan vs. Ricci Prediction

This should be a fun fight, but Yan holds a clear advantage. She’s faced the better competition by a significant margin, and she’s been able to hold her own in the past opposite superior wrestlers. Generally, Yan’s defensive grappling still seems to be improving, meaning Ricci will likely end up stranded in a kickboxing match.

It’s worth mentioning that Ricci’s two most recent wins were split-decisions that could have gone against her. If she was struggling against the No. 13 and 15th ranked Strawweights, it stands to reason that a jump all the way up to No. 2 will be a bit too much.

Prediction: Yan via decision (-120)

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Macau fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 3 a.m. ET, before the main card start time at 6 a.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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