Yusuff Vs. Lopes Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight finishers Sodiq Yusuff and Diego Lopes will go to war this weekend (Sat., April 13, 2024) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC 300.

Yusuff, 30, is in his prime and appears to have all the tools necessary to be a top contender at 145 pounds. However, he’s come up short in the two biggest opportunities of his career, which is a significant problem for a would-be title challenger who doesn’t fight all that often. Lopes, conversely, has only been on the roster for one year, but he’s made an immediate impact. His short-notice debut loss to Movsar Evloev was seriously impressive, and since then, the Brazilian-by-way-of-Mexico has been positively violent in scoring two quick finish victories and proving the hype for real.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Yusuff vs. Lopes Betting Odds

• Sodiq Yusuff victory: +115
• Sodiq Yusuff via TKO/KO/DQ: +400
• Sodiq Yusuff via submission: +1600
• Sodiq Yusuff via decision: +250
• Diego Lopes victory: -145
• Diego Lopes via TKO/KO/DQ: +275
• Diego Lopes via submission: +300
• Diego Lopes via decision: +550
• Draw: +5000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Yusuff Wins

Yusuff is one of the biggest and strongest Featherweights on the roster. He has serious power in his hands and a lot of technical tricks to his kickboxing. He tends to manage distance quite well, which goes a long way in setting up his takedowns and defending shots.

This is a really interesting style clash. Yusuff likes to operate on his terms, dictating pace and range on the threat of his powerful counters. Lopes, meanwhile, is wildly aggressive and tends to thrive in the chaos. Whichever man forces his opponent into his style of fight will very likely walk away the victor.

For Yusuff, the means earning his opponent’s respect is essential, and he absolutely has the power to do so. I’d like to see Yusuff meet his opponent’s fast start with a lot of his own offense. He’s a huge Featherweight who hits really hard and is the cleaner technical striker — why give Lopes confidence by backing away from exchanges?

If Yusuff can sting Lopes early, it will slow Lopes charges forward and allow Yusuff’s feints to take effect. The more he can force Lopes into a technical kickboxing match, the better Yusuff’s odds of scoring the upset.

How Lopes Wins

Lopes is one of the rare Featherweights who can come close to matching Yusuff’s size and general physicality. He looks to take advantage of those attributes immediately, charging his opposition with aggressive flurries of knockout strikes and wild submission attempts.

It’s hard to get a full read on Yusuff at the UFC level, as his loss was on short-notice and his two wins only lasted a combined three minutes. Just how well does his kickboxing stack up against Yusuff? It’s hard to say.

It is clear that Lopes can improve his odds by presenting Yusuff with a dual-pronged attack of striking and grappling. I’d like to see Lopes firing big combinations like usual, but punctuating them with genuine takedown attempts. Yusuff likes to fight on his terms, so forcing him on the back foot or into wild scrambles should go a long way in offsetting his rhythm.

Yusuff is accustomed to opponent’s respecting his offense — Lopes’ style should throw a wrench in that concept.

Yusuff vs. Lopes Prediction

I love watching Lopes fight, but I’m not convinced his style is built for consistent success at the elite level. There are certain fighters who can steamroll unranked opposition then merely put up good fights in losing efforts to the best in the world … and I think that description will end up fitting the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt.

The question, then, is Yusuff one of the best in the world? Six years on UFC’s roster and his best win is … Alex Caceres? “Bruce Leeroy” is good, certainly, but it’s not exactly a meteoric rise to the top. At the same time, Lopes has never beaten anyone nearly as good as “Super Sodiq.”

Subsequently, it’s hard to feel overly confident in one direction or the other. Yusuff is historically durable, however, and he has more high-level experience. When an early finish doesn’t materialize in either direction, technique and strategy tend to win the day.

Prediction: Yusuff via decision (+250)

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