Filed under: Strikeforce, MMA Fighting Exclusive
Given the original starting field for the Strikeforce heavyweight Grand Prix, the final four comes as a curious combination. Three of the top five fighters most likely to win according to the original tournament odds are no longer employed by Strikeforce, the promotion’s heavyweight championship its now vacant, and an alternate has a chance to win it all.
Leading the field is the longtime veteran Josh Barnett, the current favorite to emerge as the GP winner. His opponent Sergei Kharitonov is a rugged fighter with a tendency towards big punches and a propensity to push opponents against the cage, where he does some of his best work.
The battle for positioning is a crucial element for this fight. Barnett is often content to test his striking skills, even against fighters with more fearsome reputations as closers, but in some instances, he’s taken the more conservative route. Two recent examples of that came in his fights with Gilbert Yvel and Brett Rogers. Against both of those fighters, his ground advantage was so distinct that he determined early on that risking any problems on his feet was unnecessary.
Against Kharitonov, he might take the same approach. On one hand, Kharitonov is no pushover on the ground, with only one tapout loss in his career (he’s notably gone the distance with submission specialists Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Fabricio Werdum). On the other, Kharitonov is a mauler on his feet (three of his last four wins have come by KO, the other is a submission due to strikes). So the lesser-of-two-evils decision might make itself.
The question then becomes whether Barnett can take the fight down. He’s not a traditional takedown artist, but according to FightMetric, he’s still successful on 59 percent of his takedown tries. The tricky thing is that he may need more than one to finish Kharitonov. And it’s hard to know if Barnett will have more than one in him. For his part, Kharitonov has fairly strong takedown defense, stopping 72 percent of tries against him by FightMetric’s count.
That may leave us with a fight that is mostly contested standing up. Despite Kharitonov’s pedigree, he has never been particularly hard to hit, and due to the trust in his chin, he’s willing to take two to give one. That’s the wrong type of fight against Barnett, who has only been KO’d once in his career, and not since 2001.
That’s not to say Kharitonov can’t do it, just that Barnett will be no easy pickings. Barnett notably absorbs just 1.42 strikes per minute, a low number for a heavyweight. By comparison, Kharitonov takes 2.94 strikes per minute, more than double.
The numbers suggest Barnett’s accuracy and defense favor him on the feet, and the facts suggest he’s a massive favorite on the ground. Kharitonov’s power is always a wild card, but if it doesn’t come in the first round, it might not come at all. Given that, I’ll take Barnett by decision.
Antonio Silva vs. Daniel Cormier
Cormier wasn’t originally part of the GP field, but an alternate ready to step into any opening. His chance came when Overeem was cut despite winning his tourney opener.
Cormier is an internationally decorated wrestler with rapidly improving striking skills. His downside is that at 5-foot-11 and 240 pounds, he is small for the division. Contrast him with Silva, who is 6-foot-4 and cuts at least 10 to 15 pounds in order to make the 265-pound heavyweight limit, and you’ll see he’s got some size differential to navigate.
In his bouts so far, Cormier has acquitted himself quite nicely, with a perfect 8-0 record, and just two fights going to decisions. As expected, his most effective weapon has been his takedowns. In FightMetric’s analysis of five of his fights, he’s never had an opponent stop him from taking the fight to the ground.
Given the massive 11-inch reach advantage Silva holds, the ability to take the fight to the ground will be a crucial tool in his arsenal. Silva won’t just give up the takedown though; he successfully defends 71 percent of attempts against him.
Cormier’s improving striking game will be the key to getting inside and earning a more advantageous position. Matching shots with Silva will be tricky, not only because of the reach issue, but because Silva has real power. While he may not be a one-shot KO artist, he has good hand speed and footwork, and has some pop on his shots.
In his recent fights, Silva has shown more of a willingness to try to take the fight to the mat, where he can use his size to either pound away at his opponent or threaten with submissions. He’s unlikely to try to attempt that kind of game plan against such a decorated wrestler in Cormier though.
If Silva takes that threat away, Cormier will have one less thing to think about, freeing him up to take control of the fight. Working with American Kickboxing Academy, Cormier has come a long way in a short time. He’ll show the ability to hang with a good striker on his feet, and sprinkle in a takedown or two to score points along the way.
It’s no gimme, but Cormier wins by decision and becomes the surprise entry into the Grand Prix finals.
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