Tag: General MMA betting

UFC Light Heavyweight bout:  Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida

Odds:  (+250 Couture /-325 Machida )

Betting Pick:  Machida

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In the third bout of the evening, UFC Hall of Famer and former Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight champion Randy “The Natural” Couture squares off with slippery striker and former Light Heavyweight champion Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida. Couture is a true legend of the sport, but he is on the tail end of his storied career, while Machida is in the middle of a 2 fight losing streak after winning the first 16 fights of his professional career. This is an important fight for both guys as well as an interesting style matchup, which makes this a very compelling addition to the card.

Randy Couture is one of the most well-respected and popular fighters in Mixed Martial Arts history. A Greco-Roman wrestler who has continually defied age and expectations, Couture’s is one of the most uplifting stories in all of sports. He is an extremely tough fighter with a lot of physical strength and remarkable cardio, and few fighters in the world are as effective as he is at controlling opponents in the clinch and abusing them with dirty boxing. Despite his stellar wrestling background, Couture’s takedowns have never been overly dominant. He prefers to use the clinch up against the cage to bully his opponents around and wear them down. His boxing is actually quite underrated, and he has solid submissions, but is probably not as good as Machida in either of those areas. As per usual, his best bet is going to be his wall and stall and dirty boxing tactics.

Lyoto Machida, up until recently, looked to be one of the most dominant Light Heavyweights in the world. A slick and effective striker who is notoriously difficult to hit, Machida’s ultra-defensive counter punching style make him an extremely frustrating opponent for anyone. He also has solid defensive wrestling and a very underrated ground game in general. There is no question at all that he is a superior striker to Couture, or that he has better handspeed and footwork. The question is how well he will be able to maintain range and keep Couture from shoving him up against the cage and controlling him physically.

In the end, I think this one favors Machida. Couture’s boxing is pretty good, but Machida is clearly the faster, more mobile, and more effective striker. Couture’s entire career has been a story of defying his age, but eventually time catches up with everyone, and Machida is the best and most complete opponent Couture has had to face in years. I think Machida will continually beat Couture to the punch, and his back-pedaling, mobile style are going to make it difficult for Couture to keep him in one place. Machida should be able to score enough points on the feet and play enough defense in the clinch to earn the unanimous decision win.

Prediction: Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida via unanimous decision.

To add more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Lightweight bout:  Benson Henderson vs. Mark Bocek

Odds:  (-145 Henderson /+115 Bocek )

Betting Pick:  Henderson

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The second bout of the evening sees the UFC debut of Benson Henderson, one of WEC’s top Lightweights, as he faces tough Canadian wrestler Mark Bocek. This is a very interesting matchup in that it is Henderson’s first taste of the big show and because Henderson and Bocek have very similar styles and skill sets. Both guys are great wrestlers with very effective submissions, so this should be a very competitive and entertaining bout.

Benson Henderson was one of WEC’s most exciting and effective 155 pounders. His strength and cardio are unbelievable, and his blend of dominant wrestling, solid striking, and exceptional submissions make him a potent offensive force. While he was upset in one-sided fashion by Anthony Pettis in his last outing, “Bendo” is still a force to be reckoned with, and this is a great opportunity for him to prove it. Henderson can do it all, and while his striking isn’t world-class, it is still a great complement to his dynamic ground game. Bocek’s style is very similar to his, so Henderson is going to need to concentrate on establishing his striking game early and transitioning from the standup to the ground game smoothly and effectively if he wants to make his mark in his UFC debut.

American Top Team’s Mark Bocek is a tough grinder with great wrestling and very dangerous submissions from top position. He is a very durable fighter with great strength and cardio, and he uses his wrestling, top control, and ground and pound to soften guys up and create holes for submissions. Bocek’s standup isn’t particularly technical, but he uses it well to set up his takedowns and get the fight where he needs it to be. He is not as good a striker as Henderson, to be sure, but he is probably stronger and a better wrestler, so he needs to just push the pace and try to keep the fight in close where he can secure takedowns and top position if he wants to spoil Bendo’s debut.

This is a tough fight to call. Both of these guys are tough, well-rounded, and athletic, and both of them have very similar skill sets. Bocek is probably a slightly better wrestler, but Henderson is a better striker and better off his back. I think that this is going to be a very close, competitive fight, but ultimate Henderson’s superior ability to stay out of trouble on his back and score points in the striking will make the difference. Henderson by a narrow decision.

Prediction:  Ben “Smooth” Henderson via split decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Heavyweight bout:  Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Jason Brilz

Odds:  ( Matyushenko / Brilz )

Betting Pick:  Matyushenko

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In the opening bout of the evening, tough wrestler Jason Brilz faces a stiff challenge in the form of experienced veteran Vladimir “The Janitor” Matyushenko. Brilz is coming off an extremely controversial split decision loss to Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in a fight that almost everyone feels he won. Brilz is a tough young fighter with a versatile skill set, but Matyushenko has had a very long and accomplished career and doesn’t have many holes in his game for opponents to exploit. If Brilz wants to avoid dropping two in a row, he is going to need a near-flawless performance and an excellent game plan.

Jason Brilz is a very tough and skilled wrestler with a well-rounded overall game. His wrestling is his best weapon, but he has solid boxing, relatively heavy hands, and an effective submission game from top position to complement it. He is also notoriously difficult to finish, having only been stopped once in a fight more than ten years ago. While he has great wrestling and a very versatile skill set, Brilz’s problem isn’t that he can’t completely overwhelm guys in any one area. Against Matyushenko that could be especially troubling, since Matyushenko is also very good at everything and has a considerable advantage in the experience department.

Vladimir “The Janitor” Matyushenko, a veteran of almost 15 years in the sport, has fought some of the best fighters in the world at both Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight. In many ways, he is stylistically similar to Brilz in that he has solid wrestling, decent boxing, and effective submissions from top position. The big difference between the two is that Matyushenko has consistently fought a higher level of competition and spent a large portion of his career fighting opponents substantially larger than himself. As solid a wrestler as Matyushenko is, Jon Jones showed that a truly dominant wrestler can still physically overpower him, so he is going to have to mix it up well and try to keep Brilz at bay if he wants another win.

I think this is a tough fight for Brilz. In many ways, Matyushenko is a more experienced version of him. Both have solid striking, effective submissions, and good wrestling, but Matyushenko has fought better competition for many years and is a little better at putting all his weapons together. Both of these guys are known for their durability so it seems almost guaranteed that this one will go the distance, but I think Matyushenko has the crisper and more effective striking, and that should make the difference. Their wrestling and grappling skills should largely cancel each other out, and so Matyushenko’s more effective punching will earn him the advantage on the judges’ cards and the decision victory.

Prediction:  Vladimir “The Janitor” Matyushenko via Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…