Tag: General MMA betting

Strikeforce Welterweight Championship bout:  Nick Diaz vs. Paul Daley

Odds: (-270 Diaz / +210 Daley )

Betting Pick: Diaz

Bet on this fight at: Sportsbook.com

In the main event of the evening, Welterweight champion Nick Diaz faces his toughest challenge yet in the form of destructive British striker Paul “Semtex” Daley. Diaz has consistently defied expectations, mixing his unorthodox but effective striking with a world-class submission game, but Daley is a striker the likes of which he hasn’t had to deal with yet during his recent run. Daley is not much on the ground, but Diaz has shown a tendency to favor striking battles which could get him in a lot of trouble here.

Paul Daley had a successful stint in UFC, but was let go after he threw a late sucker punch after dropping a decision to Josh Koscheck. Since that loss, he has looked very impressive in all of his outings. Daley is an extremely technically sound striker with punching power to spare and rather underrated takedown defense. His game once a fight goes to the ground leaves a lot to be desired, but every punch he throws is a potential fight-ender and he is pretty good at staying upright so he can throw big shots.

Nick Diaz has a very interesting fight style. His jiu-jitsu is excellent and he is one of the more durable fighters in the division. His striking looks very awkward and he throws punches from a variety of angles, and while he doesn’t have much one-punch power he is excellent at combining his punches into combos that overwhelm his opponents with sheer volume. As good as he is standing, he is better on the ground, but he tends to prefer to strike, possibly because he is not a great wrestler and his takedowns are somewhat mediocre.

This is an interesting matchup for a variety of reasons. There is no question that Diaz is the superior submission fighter and that he will have his way with Daley on the ground. The question is whether or not he will be able to secure takedowns against the stouter, stronger Daley, or if he will even have any interest in taking this fight down. It is quite possible that Diaz will want to stand and trade shots as he has so often in the past. If that happens, it’s hard to predict the winner. On paper, Daley is the superior striker and clearly the more powerful of the two, but Diaz’s unorthodox style gives technical strikers fits and his tremendous handspeed and accuracy allow him to beat superior strikers to the punch quite frequently. In the end, I think that Diaz’s awkward style and superior versatility will allow him to stay in this. He should be able to clinch effectively if he gets in trouble on the feet, and eventually this fight will find its way to the ground and Diaz will find a way to exploit Daley’s questionable submission defense. Diaz by submission. It is worth noting, though, that at +180 or so a guy with Daley’s one-punch knockout potential is never a bad idea, even though I think Diaz is more likely to win.

Prediction:  Nick Diaz via third round rear naked choke.

• Daley @ +210 is worth putting down a small bet.
  

To add  some excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Strikeforce Lightweight Championship bout:  Gilbert Melendez vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri

Odds: (-300 Melendez /+240 Kawajiri )

Betting Pick: Melendez

Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com

In the semi-main event, Lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez will defend his title against legendary Japanese striker Tatsuya Kawajiri. While Kawajiri is not totally lost on the ground and Melendez does have some striking, in many ways this is an old-school style vs. style matchup. If Kawajiri can keep the fight standing, he is in prime position to win, but Melendez will manhandle him if he can get it to the ground, so this is an interesting fight. If Kawajiri wants to avoid a repeat of his 2006 loss to Melendez, he is going to need to show improved takedown defense and crisper striking.

Tatsuya “Crusher” Kawajiri is a very dynamic and effective striker who also has a fairly underrated ground game. He has been a mainstay of Japanese MMA for years, and has fought a lot of the best Lightweights in the world, losing only to the very best. Kawajiri’s problem is that he is not a great wrestler and his offense tends to be predictable. He likes to let his hands go and fight aggressively and he rarely uses his grappling offensively. Against Melendez there is absolutely no reason he would want to take it to the ground, so he needs to make sure his takedown defense is on point. One interesting thing to consider is that Kawajiri is not used to fighting in a cage and is reportedly not even training with a cage, which could prove a big disadvantage against a superior grappler.

Gilbert Melendez is inarguably the top Lightweight in the world outside of UFC. In 20 professional fights, he has never been finished, and he avenged his only two losses in dramatic fashion. Melendez actually has very solid boxing, but his best work is very clearly his wrestling and his ground and pound. He actually has some skills in the submission department, but he prefers to maintain top position and dole out punishment with his hands, and he is very effective at doing it. Chances are he could at least hold his own standing with Kawajiri, but there is no reason he should even chance it since the gap on the ground is so wide.

As with most striker vs. grappler style matchups, this one favors Melendez, the grappler. He controlled Kawajiri physically in their last fight, and his wrestling and top control have only continued to improve. I don’t see how Kawajiri can possibly keep this fight standing, and once it goes to the ground Melendez will dominate him with positional control and ground and pound. Kawajiri is tough and experienced, so he should be able to hang in the fight, but I expect his offense to be minimal and for Melendez to earn a lopsided decision win.

Prediction: Gilbert Melendez via unanimous decision.

To add  some excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Strikeforce Lightweight Heavyweight bout:  Gegard Mousasi vs. Keith Jardine

Odds:  (-575 Mousasi /+375 Jardine)

Betting Pick:  Mousasi

Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com

In the opening bout of the televised card, Dutch wrecking machine Gegard Mousasi will square off with late replacement Keith Jardine in a Light Heavyweight bout. “The Dean of Mean” is stepping in as a late replacement for Mike Kyle, who broke his hand during training. Jardine has looked solid since being cut from UFC after a string of terrible performances, but Mousasi has lost only once in the last four years and has some seriously dangerous striking, so if Jardine wants to make another splash on a big stage he is going to need to come ready to fight and protect his notoriously fragile chin.

Keith Jardine was a long-time staple of UFC’s 205 pound division, but a string of horrible performances cost him his spot in the company. He has looked decent in his small-show bouts since, but this is his first appearance back in a big company and Mousasi is not exactly a warmup fight. Jardine is a very competent kickboxer who also has underrated wrestling and submissions. He is pretty good at dealing damage from top position as well. Jardine’s problem is that his chin is suspect and his ground game isn’t dominant enough to keep him out of trouble on the feet. He has good striking technique but lacks finishing power, and that means he is in constant danger of eating big shots and going to sleep.

Gegard Mousasi is one of the most dominant strikers in the sport. His technique and knockout power are both top-notch, and every punch he throws has fight-ending potential. On top of his world-class striking game, Mousasi has extremely effective submissions as well. He isn’t the best wrestler, and dominant wrestlers like Mo Lawal have been the only opponents capable of giving him trouble, but his wrestling should be more than enough to keep this fight standing against Jardine.

This is a nightmare matchup for Jardine. Mousasi is superior on the feet in every way and quite likely has a better ground game as well. Jardine has good wrestling, but Mousasi’s takedown defense is good and Jardine tends to favor striking anyway, so this one will probably play out mostly on the feet, where Mousasi will have his way with Jardine before putting him to sleep. Mousasi by T/KO.

Prediction: Gegard Mousasi via second round T/KO.

To add  some excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…