Tag: General MMA betting

UFC Middleweight bout:  Nate Marquardt vs. Dan Miller

Odds:  (-325 Marquardt /+250 Miller )

Betting Pick:  Marquardt

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With Yoshihiro Akiyama forced to withdraw from his scheduled bout with top Middleweight contender Nate Marquardt because of the tragedy in Japan, the always-game Dan Miller has stepped up as a late replacement to fight Marquardt. Originally scheduled to face Nick Catone, Miller will now face a much stiffer challenge as he tries to hand Marquardt another loss on short notice. Miller is experienced and versatile, but Marquardt is one of the better fighters in the division and is going to give him a completely different look than Catone would have, so this is a tough fight for Miller and he should be commended for taking such a formidable opponent on so little notice.

Miller has had mixed results in his UFC career, but he is currently riding a 2 fight win streak and his only losses came to top contenders in Chael Sonnen, Michael Bisping, and Demian Maia. Miller has really excellent jiu-jitsu from every position and extremely underrated wrestling to go along with it. What prevents him from being one of the top contenders in the division has always been his standup, which is neither powerful nor technically good. If Miller is going to win a fight, he is going to do it on the ground. Even the most middling strikers are more than a match for him, as Demian Maia proved, and Marquardt is a lot more than a middling striker.

Marquardt has been one of the top contenders at Middleweight for a few years now, but has fallen short in a series of big fights that have kept him from the title. Most recently he was outwrestled, outboxed, and dominated by Yushin Okami in a fight he was favored to win. Still, Marquardt has proven over and over again that he is extremely dangerous both standing and on the ground. His kickboxing is technically solid and he has a lot of punching power, and he has very good submissions, especially from top position and with the guillotine. Marquardt’s biggest problems have come with guys who are able to outwrestle him and force him to work off his back. Whether Miller can implement that gameplan remains to be seen.

I don’t like Miller’s chances here. Taking a big step up in competition like this on such short notice is always dangerous, but the more important fact is that Marquardt is just a better fighter. On the feet, Marquardt will be faster, more accurate, and far more powerful. Miller is a good wrestler, but so is Marquardt, and I don’t think Miller is going to be able to impose his will on Marquardt the way Okami or Sonnen did. I think Marquardt will be able to keep this fight standing, and eventually put Miller away. Marquardt by T/KO.

Prediction:  Nate “The Great” Marquardt via second round T/KO. 

To add a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

 

UFC Lightweight bout:  Jim Miller vs. Kamal Shalorus

Odds:  (-245 Miller /+195 Shalorus )

Betting Pick:  MILLER

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In the opening bout of the evening, prolific grappler Jim Miller faces a stiff challenge in the form of undefeated wrestling dynamo Kamal Shalorus. Miller is very well-rounded and has spectacular submissions, but Shalorus is an extremely dominant wrestler who, despite his lack of submission finishes, has extremely underrated jiu-jitsu of his own. Miller has the added advantage of being more experienced and having fought much better competition, but he is still going to have his hands full with Shalorus’ dominant grappling game.

Kamal Shalorus, an Iranian-born wrestler, is undefeated so far as a professional. The closest he has come to tasting defeat was a draw against dangerous opponent Jamie Varner. Shalorus’ wrestling is extremely formidable, and he is a terror from top position, able to dish out a serious amount of punishment with his dangerous ground and pound. His submission game has not been showcased very much, but it is actually very effective, as he has proved with big wins in Abu Dhabi and elsewhere. His striking is certainly not world-class, but it isn’t horrible either, and Miller isn’t the kind of guy who is going to easily capitalize on that hole in his game.

Miller, a very experienced and effective veteran, is easily one of the top Lightweight contenders in the UFC. A veteran of over 20 fights, his only two losses are to Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar, the two men who fought to a draw for the UFC Lightweight Title recently. He has never been finished as a professional, and more than half of his wins have come by way of submission. Clearly his ground game is extremely formidable, but he also has serviceable boxing with great defense and rather underrated wrestling.

I don’t think this is a very good style matchup for Shalorus. Miller is the better striker, although neither of them is particularly scary on the feet. Shalorus is the better wrestler, but Miller is also very effective and the gap is much more narrow than it is on the feet. Perhaps most importantly, Miller has submissions from every position on a level Shalorus has never had to deal with, not to mention incredible sweeps and escapes. Shalorus has a tendency to abandon his wrestling anyway, which is not going to help him here. I think Miller will win the striking exchanges, and his superior submission prowess is going to hamper Shalorus’ offense on the ground. I think this is going to be a close, hard-fought, and competitive fight, and neither guy is going to able to finish the other, but Miller should be able to do enough to earn the decision nod.

Prediction:  Jim Miller via Decision.

To add  more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

UFC Heavyweight bout:  Mirko Filipovic vs. Brendan Schaub

Odds:  (+190 Cro Cop /-240 Schaub )

Betting Pick:  Schaub

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In the second bout, up and coming Heavyweight prospect Brendan Schaub faces long-time veteran kickboxer Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic. Schaub is huge, freakishly athletic, and constantly improving as a fighter. Cro Cop is clearly on the tail end of his career, but he can still dish out some serious punishment, so he is a very good test of how ready Schaub is for the top competitors in the division.

Cro Cop’s legacy, both in K-1 and Mixed Martial Arts, speak for themselves. At his prime, he was the most feared Heavyweight striker in the world, and for good reason. His punching was devastatingly powerful and accurate, and his high kicks were the stuff of legend. While he has very clearly lost a step or two since his prime, he is still a very skilled striker with solid power. Cro Cop’s biggest problem is that he was never a particularly large Heavyweight to begin with, and his physical decline has coincided with a huge increase in the size of other Heavyweights. Now he is left to try to win fights with diminishing power and technique against ever-larger opponents.

Schaub is, physically at least, the prototype of the new Heavyweight division. He is freakishly large, but extremely agile for a man his size. He has some brutal punching power and pretty good wrestling to go along with it. His first official UFC fight was a disappointing knockout loss to Roy Nelson, but he has rebounded with three straight impressive wins against solid competition. What is most important for Schaub is that he not take Cro Cop lightly, and not allow Cro Cop to get comfortable in the standup exchanges, where is still capable of doing pretty brutal damage.

A few years ago, things might have been very different, but Schaub’s star is rising while Cro Cop’s is falling. Mirko can’t hit as hard as he once could, he’s not as fast as he once was, and Schaub is just way too big and athletic for him to handle at this stage of his career. Schaub is the better wrestler, and he might be the more dangerous striker at this point, at least in terms of knockout power. I think he will give Mirko fits both standing and with takedowns and easily control this fight for a decision win.

Prediction:  Brendan “The Hybrid” Schaub via Unanimous Decision.

To add  more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

UFC Bantamweight bout:  Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian Loveland

Odds:  ( Benavidez / Loveland )

Betting Pick:  Benavidez

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In the third bout, top 135 pound contender Joseph Benavidez makes his UFC debut against journeyman Ian Loveland. Loveland stepped up on late notice and destroyed Tyler Toner at the Ultimate Fighter 12 finale before deciding to drop to Bantamweight. Now, he is getting thrown into the deep end against the division’s #2 fighter. This is a big step up in competition for him and it remains to be seen how he will handle the weight cut, so this could be a tough fight for him.

Ian “The Barn Owl” Loveland, a Team Quest product, had a rough start to his career, but is currently riding the momentum of a seven fight winning streak. A well-rounded fighter with very good submissions and powerful punching, Loveland has a very versatile and effective skill set. The problem is that Benavidez is easily the best fighter he has ever faced, and he is doing it in a brand new weight division. He is going to need a career performance if he wants to keep his impressive win streak alive.

Joseph Benavidez has lost only twice as a professional, with both losses coming in close fights to current Bantamweight kingpin Dominick Cruz. Benavidez is extremely well rounded, with good boxing, great wrestling, and extremely effective submissions. He has no glaring holes in his game, and even though his striking is the worst part of his arsenal he is still a very technically sound boxer.

Benavidez is just too much for Loveland. Loveland is dealing with a weight cut to 135 for the first time, making a big step up in competition, and facing a guy who is probably even more versatile and well-rounded than he is. Loveland is a tough fighter with good defense on the ground, so I expect him to make a fight, but Benavidez should control all three rounds for a decision.

Prediction:  Joseph Benavidez via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

UFC Bantamweight bout:  Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian Loveland

Odds:  ( Benavidez / Loveland )

Betting Pick:  Benavidez

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In the third bout, top 135 pound contender Joseph Benavidez makes his UFC debut against journeyman Ian Loveland. Loveland stepped up on late notice and destroyed Tyler Toner at the Ultimate Fighter 12 finale before deciding to drop to Bantamweight. Now, he is getting thrown into the deep end against the division’s #2 fighter. This is a big step up in competition for him and it remains to be seen how he will handle the weight cut, so this could be a tough fight for him.

Ian “The Barn Owl” Loveland, a Team Quest product, had a rough start to his career, but is currently riding the momentum of a seven fight winning streak. A well-rounded fighter with very good submissions and powerful punching, Loveland has a very versatile and effective skill set. The problem is that Benavidez is easily the best fighter he has ever faced, and he is doing it in a brand new weight division. He is going to need a career performance if he wants to keep his impressive win streak alive.

Joseph Benavidez has lost only twice as a professional, with both losses coming in close fights to current Bantamweight kingpin Dominick Cruz. Benavidez is extremely well rounded, with good boxing, great wrestling, and extremely effective submissions. He has no glaring holes in his game, and even though his striking is the worst part of his arsenal he is still a very technically sound boxer.

Benavidez is just too much for Loveland. Loveland is dealing with a weight cut to 135 for the first time, making a big step up in competition, and facing a guy who is probably even more versatile and well-rounded than he is. Loveland is a tough fighter with good defense on the ground, so I expect him to make a fight, but Benavidez should control all three rounds for a decision.

Prediction:  Joseph Benavidez via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…