Tag: General MMA betting

Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Championship bout:  Dan Henderson vs. Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante

Odds:  (-205 Henderson / +165 Cavalcante )

Betting Pick:  Henderson

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In the main event of the evening, former two-division PRIDE champion Dan Henderson will look to add another title belt to his resume as he faces off with Light Heavyweight champion Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante. Cavalcante shocked most pundits by upsetting “King Mo” Lawal to capture the belt, looking extremely powerful in the process, but Henderson has a wealth of experience and an extremely dangerous offensive skillset, so this is going to be a very tough test for the new champion.

Henderson, who at one time ruled over PRIDE’s Lightweight and Middleweight divisions, has had some mixed results since then. He dropped both of his title unification bouts in the UFC before putting together a string of quality wins, then was derailed in his Strikeforce debut in an upset against Jake Shields before returning to form in his last bout by demolishing Renato “Babalu” Sobral. He isn’t always the most consistent performer, but no one can doubt the power behind his looping punches or his ability to physically dominate guys and drag them down from the clinch. Perhaps most importantly, Henderson has been fighting the best in the world in two different weight classes for years now, and that kind of top-level experience cannot be duplicated or underestimated.

Cavalcante, who lacks the same kind of top-level experience Henderson has, is the champion for a reason. His striking is devastating in every range, and he showed against Lawal that his takedown defense and ability to get out of bad positions on the ground is formidable as well. There is no question that Cavalcante is the better striker of these two, especially in terms of speed and quickness, but he has never had to fight anyone as complete and experienced as Henderson, who can test him on the feet with his unorthodox but deadly power punches and also has a wrestling attack substantially more varied and dangerous than Lawal’s.

I think Cavalcante is going to have his hands full here. He is obviously a formidable striker, but Henderson also has one-punch knockout power in surplus. More importantly, Cavalcante has only faced one real top-level wrestler, being Lawal, and Henderson’s wrestling is more varied and effective than Lawal’s, not to mention complemented by vastly superior striking. Henderson has a spectacular chin, also, which is going to make it that much more difficult for Cavalcante. Henderson has been in these big-stage title fights many times before, and that coupled with his superior wrestling and physicality are going to help him wear down Cavalcante in the early rounds before catching him later on when he is in deep water he has never had to tread before. Henderson by T/KO.

Prediction: Dan Henderson via fourth round T/KO.

To add  a little excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Strikeforce Middleweight bout:  Tim Kennedy vs. Melvin Manhoef

Odds:  (-240 Kennedy /+190 Manhoef )

Betting Pick:  Kennedy

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In what has the makings of a very competitive Middleweight bout, combat veteran Tim Kennedy will look to recover from a loss to Ronaldo Souza in his last fight against slumping kickboxer Melvin Manhoef. Kennedy is extremely tough and well-rounded, and while Manhoef has had some poor results lately, he is nevertheless an extremely devastating striker, so this one could provide some fireworks.

Melvin Manhoef is one of the most explosive and dynamic strikers in the sport. An experienced veteran, Manhoef has seen the second round only 7 times in 33 career fights. His striking prowess, and especially his punching power, can not be overstated. Pretty much anyone who tries to stand in front of Manhoef is going to suffer for it, as gigantic K-1 Grand Prix champion Mark Hunt learned in under 20 seconds. Manhoef’s problem is that his takedown defense is terrible, he has no submission defense, and really no ground game at all. He is either going to knock someone out fast or he is going to get planted on his back and destroyed, for the most part.

Tim Kennedy, a U.S. Army veteran with an extremely well-rounded game, has cemented himself as one of Strikeforce’s top Middleweights. He is an effective striker with a good amount of power, but there is zero chance of him surviving more than one or two striking exchanges with Manhoef. Luckily, his best work comes on the ground. He has good takedowns, good ground and pound, and very effective submissions.

This is sort of like the old-school style vs. style matches. Not that Kennedy can’t box, because he can, but because the winner will be determined by how fast Kennedy can execute a takedown. If he gets hit more than a few times by Manhoef he is done for, but if he can get Manhoef to the ground he will dominate him. I expect exactly that. Manhoef just isn’t complete enough to face real grapplers, and he will get taken down and choked out in short order.

Prediction:  Tim Kennedy via first round rear naked choke.

To add  a little excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…