Predictions For UFC 127: Penn vs. Fitch

Here are my Fight Predictions.  I have full write ups for the Main Card and Quick Picks for the Prelims.     Visit our Fight Information Page.
BJ Penn over Jon Fitch via Unanimous Decision.  UnderDog Pick @ +160

Penn vs. Fitch Prediction Page.

Michael Bisping over Jorge Rivera via Unanimous Decision.

Bisping vs. Rivera Prediction Page.

George Sotiropoulos over Dennis Siver via […]

Here are my Fight Predictions.  I have full write ups for the Main Card and Quick Picks for the Prelims.     Visit our Fight Information Page.

BJ Penn over Jon Fitch via Unanimous Decision.  UnderDog Pick @ +160

Michael Bisping over Jorge Rivera via Unanimous Decision.

George Sotiropoulos over Dennis Siver via second round armbar.

Chris Lytle over Brian Ebersole via second round rear naked choke.

Kyle Noke over Chris Camozzi via third round rear naked choke.

Preliminary Card Quick Picks

  • Spencer Fisher over Ross Pearson via second round T/KO.  UnderDog Pick @+145
  • Alexander Gustafsson over James Te-Huna via first round T/KO.
  • Riki Fukuda over Nick Ring via unanimous decision.
  • Chris Tuscherer over Mark Hunt via unanimous decision.
  • Maciej Jewtuszko over Curt Warburton via second round rear naked choke.
  • Anthony Perosh over Tom Blackledge via split decision.  UnderDog pick @ +150
  • Zhang Tie Quan over Jason Reinhardt via unanimous decision.

BJ Penn vs. Jon Fitch Prediction

UFC Welterweight bout:  B.J. Penn vs. Jon Fitch
Odds:  (+160 Penn /-200 Fitch )
Betting Pick:  Penn
Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com
In the main event, former Lightweight and Welterweight champion looks to make it two in a row and possibly get another Welterweight title run going. Standing in his way, though, is clear-cut #1 contender Jon Fitch. […]

UFC Welterweight bout:  B.J. Penn vs. Jon Fitch

Odds:  (+160 Penn /-200 Fitch )

Betting Pick:  Penn

Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com

In the main event, former Lightweight and Welterweight champion looks to make it two in a row and possibly get another Welterweight title run going. Standing in his way, though, is clear-cut #1 contender Jon Fitch. B.J. has phenomenal boxing and some of the best jiu-jitsu in the sport, but Fitch is a big guy who cuts a lot of weight to get to 170 and has seriously dominant wrestling, so if B.J. wants to show that he can rebound from back to back losses to Frankie Edgar he is going to need to perform up to his “Prodigy” nickname.

B.J. Penn has his eyes set on a second Welterweight title reign after two thorough defeats at the hand of Lightweight champion Frankie Edgar. Penn’s natural abilities are the stuff of legend, with his freakish displays of athleticism having become a youtube sensation and his natural inclination for jiu-jitsu being a matter of record. Penn’s jiu-jitsu is spectacular from every position, and he is especially effective at getting control of the back and locking in chokes. He is also an extremely proficient technical boxer with a lot of punching power, even at 170, and some of the best takedown defense the sport has ever seen. The big question mark is and always has been his motivation and conditioning, but he seems truly intent at another serious Welterweight run, so expect him to show up ready and able to fight.

His opponent, Jon Fitch, is the clear #2 Welterweight in the world. Some fans chafe at Fitch’s style, which can be seen as boring, but no one would ever call it ineffective. Fitch has solid boxing, but isn’t a knockout puncher. Instead, he relies on dirty boxing, clinch work, trip takedowns and tosses from the clinch, and dominant positional control and ground and pound. Not only is Fitch excellent at imposing his will on opponents, he is extremely good at frustrating and stifling their offense. He will enter the ring with a pretty serious size advantage, which could be a huge factor considering how effective he already is at controlling and wearing guys down in the clinch.

This is a really interesting style matchup. Penn is much quicker and has much better boxing, but Fitch is bigger, stronger, and a dominant wrestler. Penn’s takedown defense is nearly impossible to crack, but Fitch’s size and strength advantages are going to wear on him in the close fighting, and I’m sure Fitch will find a way to drag him down at least a few times. Penn is extremely difficult to finish, and Fitch is not known as a finisher, so this fight will probably go the distance. The question is whether or not Penn will be able to do enough damage in the striking in between Fitch’s clinches and takedown attempts, and whether or not Fitch has the submission defense necessary to hold Penn off on the ground if and when he makes it to top position. At around +160, I think Penn is a very attractive underdog pick. This fight seems destined to go the distance, and Fitch is not going to outbox Penn. Like I said, Penn will get taken down at least once or twice, but his superior boxing and quickness should allow him to score points on the feet and Fitch is going to have to be defensive even from top position on the ground. I think BJ should be able to threaten on the ground and score points on the feet well enough to earn a unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  BJ “The Prodigy” Penn via unanimous decision.

  • I really like Penn to pull off the upset. Bet on Bj @ +160 for the Win.

To add  some excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Michael Bisping vs. Jorge Rivera Prediction

UFC Middleweight bout:  Michael Bisping vs. Jorge Rivera
Odds:  (-350 Bisping / +275 Rivera )
Betting Pick:  Bisping
Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com
In the co-main event, British standout Michael “The Count” Bisping will look to reassert himself into title contention against resurgent veteran Jorge Rivera. Rivera has been calling out his opponents by name recently, the UFC […]

UFC Middleweight bout:  Michael Bisping vs. Jorge Rivera

Odds:  (-350 Bisping / +275 Rivera )

Betting Pick:  Bisping

Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com

In the co-main event, British standout Michael “The Count” Bisping will look to reassert himself into title contention against resurgent veteran Jorge Rivera. Rivera has been calling out his opponents by name recently, the UFC has given him who he wanted, and he has turned those opportunities into big wins. Bisping is a very dangerous guy, but his style is one Rivera has the tools to exploit, so this should be an exciting contest.

Bisping, who entered the UFC by winning The Ultimate Fighter, has sparked a huge growth of Mixed Martial Arts in the United Kingdom. A skilled kickboxer with very underrated jiu-jitsu and a developing wrestling game, Bisping has a lot of skills and constantly continues to improve. The knock on him has always been that he is a striker with no power, which is true, but he has added wrestling and some devastating ground and pound to his already formidable skillset. He isn’t going to turn anyone’s lights out with his punching, but he has great hands and good technique and can pile it on guys until they are worn down. Against Rivera he is going to need to avoid Rivera’s big power punches and try to capitalize on his superior handspeed and accuracy.

Rivera, a longtime journeyman who has been enjoying a very impressive career renaissance, is an extremely tough and heavy-handed slugger with an iron chin and a lot of heart. He has had a lot of mixed results over the years, but has put together an impressive string of performances, going 4-1 in his last 5 with impressive wins over Kendall Grove, Rob Kimmons, and Nate Quarry. Rivera’s submissions are not great, and neither is his submission defense, but he has solid wrestling and ground and pound to go along with his huge power punching.

This is an interesting style matchup. Neither guy has dominant wrestling at all, and they should sort of cancel each other out there. Bisping is undeniably better on the ground, and in the standup Bisping is faster and more technical while Rivera has more power and is more aggressive. In the end, I think Bisping is just a little too fast and accurate for Rivera to handle, and the fact that he might be able to turn Rivera’s aggressive, looping punches into short takedowns and to do damage from top position, I think Bisping should be able to do enough to earn the decision nod.

Prediction:  Michael “The Count” Bisping via decision.

To add  some excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

George Sotiropoulos vs. Dennis Siver Prediction

UFC Lightweight bout:  George Sotiropoulos vs. Dennis Siver
Odds:  (-340 Sotiropoulos /+260 Siver )
Betting Pick:  Sotiropoulos
Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com
In what could be a Fight of the Night contender, two of the Lightweight division’s most dynamic and well-rounded contenders will go at it in a bout that could well have immediate title shot implications, especially for […]

UFC Lightweight bout:  George Sotiropoulos vs. Dennis Siver

Odds:  (-340 Sotiropoulos /+260 Siver )

Betting Pick:  Sotiropoulos

Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com

In what could be a Fight of the Night contender, two of the Lightweight division’s most dynamic and well-rounded contenders will go at it in a bout that could well have immediate title shot implications, especially for Sotiropoulos. Both of these guys have been on a tear recently, and both have similar styles in that they are prolific jiu-jitsu experts who have added very effective striking to their games. Siver looked like a beast in his last fight, but Sotiropoulos is definitely his toughest challenge to date, so this should be a telling fight.

Siver, who trounced well-regarded prospect Andre Winner with ease in his last fight, is an extremely dangerous and versatile fighter. He has explosive and powerful kickboxing and an extremely solid grappling base. His submission defense is notoriously spotty, but in terms of offensive capability Siver is one of the more dangerous fighters at 155. He can hurt opponents standing, off his back, or from top position. It is quite likely that, even though Siver is great on the ground himself, he will try to make this a kickboxing match just because Sotiropoulos’ ground game is so dominant.

Since being eliminated from the Team Serra vs. Team Hughes season of The Ultimate Fighter, George Sotiropoulos has really come into his own as one of the best fighters in the world at 155 pounds. His jiu-jitsu is superlative, and he has continually improved as both a wrestler and a technical boxer. He’s not the kind of guy who is going to destroy someone with strikes, but when he starts establishing his jab he can effectively keep opponents back and set up his takedowns. On the ground, very few fighters in the division can hang with Sotiropoulos.

I’m not entirely sure Sotiropoulos would lose even if this was a boxing match. Siver is more dangerous in that he has more power and can explode with creative strikes, but Sotiropoulos is the technically superior striker and I think his jab is going to force Siver to fight a bit more defensively. This isn’t a kickboxing match, though, and what is important is that Siver doesn’t have what it takes to keep Sotiropoulos from taking him down, controlling him, and submitting him. Sotiropoulos by submission.

Prediction:  George Sotiropoulos via second round armbar.

To add  some excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Chris Lytle vs. Brian Ebersole Prediction

UFC Welterweight bout:  Chris Lytle vs. Brian Ebersole
Odds:  (-265 Lytle /+205 Ebersole )
Betting Pick:  Lytle
Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com
In the second televised bout, two of the UFC’s most grizzled veterans will go at it as Chris Lytle takes on Brian Ebersole. These guys have a combined 115 fights and over 20 years of fighting […]

UFC Welterweight bout:  Chris Lytle vs. Brian Ebersole

Odds:  (-265 Lytle /+205 Ebersole )

Betting Pick:  Lytle

Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com

In the second televised bout, two of the UFC’s most grizzled veterans will go at it as Chris Lytle takes on Brian Ebersole. These guys have a combined 115 fights and over 20 years of fighting experience, which is just ridiculous. Both guys are riding win streaks right now, but Lytle has been fighting much better competition, so it’s interesting to see how Ebersole handles the step back up in competition.

Brian “Bad Boy” Ebersole is making his first appearance in the UFC, but he has been fighting for over a decade in shows all over the world, from Shooto to the IFL. With over 60 fights under his belt, Ebersole is probably the most experienced fighter making his UFC debut in the company’s history. He has a very well-rounded skillset, with decent wrestling and solid, heavy-handed boxing to go along with very effective submissions. The big question mark for Ebersole, aside from how well he will handle the step up in competition and the pressure of the big show, is how well his somewhat spotty submission defense will hold up on the ground against Lytle, one of the most prolific submission finishers in the sport’s history.

Chris “Lights Out” Lytle is one of the toughest and most seasoned fighters in the world, much less the UFC. A prolific grappler who is a threat to finish with submissions from any conceivable position, Lytle also has an iron chin, heavy hands, and a willingness to stand toe to toe and trade with anyone he fights. He isn’t a big finisher in the standup, but he does have the power to hurt his opponents and he can take a shot like few others. Most importantly, he has been fighting the best in the world for years, which is a huge advantage over a guy like Ebersole.

I think Ebersole, for all of his experience, is going to have a rough time here. Not only is Lytle a big step up in competition for him, and not only is he facing the notoriously tough pressure of a UFC debut, but I think Lytle is just a little bit better than he is at everything. Ebersole isn’t a powerful enough striker to overwhelm Lytle, and in fact will probably lose most of the striking exchanges. More importantly, I don’t think he has any way to stop Lytle from taking him down and submitting him. Lytle by submission.

Prediction:  Chris “Lights Out” Lytle via second round rear naked choke. 

To add  some excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Kyle Noke vs. Chris Camozzi Prediction

UFC Middleweight bout:  Kyle Noke vs. Chris Camozzi
Odds:  (-215 Noke / +175 Camozzi )
Betting Pick:  Noke
Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com
In the opening bout of the evening, two Ultimate Fighter Season 11 cast members will meet as well-rounded Australian Kyle Noke takes on the tough and versatile Chris Camozzi. Camozzi was unable to compete on The […]

UFC Middleweight bout:  Kyle Noke vs. Chris Camozzi

Odds:  (-215 Noke / +175 Camozzi )

Betting Pick:  Noke

Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com

In the opening bout of the evening, two Ultimate Fighter Season 11 cast members will meet as well-rounded Australian Kyle Noke takes on the tough and versatile Chris Camozzi. Camozzi was unable to compete on The Ultimate Fighter due to a broken jaw he suffered in the prelims, while Noke suffered an upset defeat at the hands of Kris McCray to end his chances. Still, both guys have diverse skill sets and a good amount of fighting experience, so this should be a very competitive bout.

Chris Camozzi had one of the most brutal and competitive fights to enter the house on Ultimate Fighter Season 11, and it ended up costing him. Although he won the fight and the right to compete on the show, he suffered a broken jaw that knocked him out of the competition. On the season finale, he proved he belonged by easily outpointing James Hammortree, and he followed that up with another impressive win over Dongi Yang. Camozzi is not dominant at any one thing, but he is very well-rounded with solid boxing, a good chin, good wrestling, and effective submissions.

Kyle Noke was one of the early favorites to win Season 11, but his hopes were dashed when he found himself thoroughly outwrestled by Kris McCray. A former bodyguard for The Crocodile Hunter, Noke has a lot of experience all over the world even if he is relatively new to the UFC. He is a good boxer with fairly heavy hands, but his best work is done on the ground. He has very effective submissions, sweeps, escapes, and positional control. The only flaw in his ground game is his wrestling, which is not up to snuff either offensively or defensively.

In the end, I think Noke is going to be too much for Camozzi to handle. Neither guy is a real striking dynamo, but Noke is the steadier and more consistent boxer. On the ground I think Noke also has the edge. Camozzi has good jiu-jitsu, but Noke’s is better, and that will make the difference. Noke by submission.

Prediction:  Kyle Noke via third round rear naked choke.

To add  some excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…