Tag: General MMA betting

Strikeforce Heavyweight GP bout:  Fedor Emelianenko vs. Antonio Silva

Odds:  (-525 Emelianenko /+325 Silva )

Betting Pick:  FEDOR

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In the main event of the evening, long-time Heavyweight king Fedor Emelianenko will look to prove that his loss to Fabricio Werdum, the first legitimate loss of his storied career, does not spell the end of his dominance. Standing in his way is Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva, one of Strikeforce’s most successful Heavyweights. At his best, Fedor is at least a match for anyone in the division, but Silva is a formidable foe and it remains to be seen how Fedor will handle his first real loss in over a decade of fighting.

Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva, one of Strikeforce’s biggest Heavyweight attractions, is a very effective and well-rounded fighter although he doesn’t look like your prototypical athlete. Silva has very heavy hands, good wrestling, and a great ground game. He is not always the most prolific submission finisher, but he has excellent jiu-jitsu, thudding ground and pound, and great positional control. Fedor proved in his last fight that he can be submitted, and Silva has the sort of dogged determination in the ground game, not to mention the size and technical ability, that he could put Fedor in some very bad positions if he can manage to impose his will.

Emelianenko was the undisputed king of the Heavyweight division for years, tearing through all of his opponents and, even more impressively, tending to beat them all at their own games. In their primes, he brutalized Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira on the ground and made Mirko Cro Cop look amateurish in a striking battle. Fedor is one of the most dangerous finisher’s in the sport’s history. His punching is extremely powerful and unorthodox, and he can send knockout punches at an opponent from a variety of unusual angles that are hard to deal with. On the ground, he has amazing submissions from both the top and off his back, and his ground and pound is pretty much the stuff of legend.

I think that, like most every conceivable fight, this one favors Emelianenko. On the feet he is quicker and more powerful than Silva, and his submissions are arguably better too. The gap is smaller on the ground, and Silva could have success there, but no one has ever been able to consistently force Emelianenko to the ground. He was submitted by Werdum after rocking him with a huge punch and then recklessly diving into his guard, a mistake I doubt he will repeat this time around. I don’t think Silva has the type of dominant wrestling it would require to get Fedor on his back, and it is just a matter of time before Fedor lands one of his trademark crushing power punches and earns the T/KO victory.

Prediction: Fedor Emelianenko via second round T/KO.

To add  some excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Strikeforce Heavyweight GP bout: Andrei Arlovski vs. Sergei Kharitonov

Odds:  (-105 Arlovski /-125 Kharitonov )

Betting Pick:  KHARITONOV

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In the first official fight of Strikeforce’s much-touted Heavyweight Grand Prix, two dynamic strikers will face off as former UFC champion Andrei Arlovski squares off with skilled Russian PRIDE veteran Sergei Kharitonov. Both of these guys have great striking, so this has the makings of an exciting standup affair. The question is whether Arlovski’s superior firepower will be enough to trump Kharitonov’s more well-rounded and technical game or if Kharitonov can use his superior technique to exploit Arlovski’s glass jaw.

Kharitonov is a long-time veteran of the sport who, despite his relatively low profile in the United States, has fought many of the best Heavyweights of his time. Despite his high level of competition, he has put together an impressive 17-4 record that includes a knockout win over multiple-time K-1 Grand Prix winner Semmy Schilt, another knockout win over K-1 and Strikeforce champion Alistair Overeem, and a win over former UFC champ Pedro Rizzo. Clearly, Kharitonov’s striking is formidable, but he also has excellent judo throws from the clinch and has won as many of his fights by submission as he has by knockout. That ability to finish a fight both standing and on the ground, coupled with his experience and toughness, make him an extremely formidable opponent.

Andrei Arlovski, the former UFC Heavyweight Champion, is one of the most dangerous strikers in the division. He has ridiculous handspeed, accuracy, and power, and can pile on punishment extremely fast. He also has very underrated throws from the clinch and submissions. Despite all that, he is on a three fight losing streak right now, and the blame lies firmly on his glass jaw. Arlovski’s problem has always been that he is a glass cannon. He can dole out punishment with the best of them, but he can’t take a solid shot to the jaw without lapsing into a coma.

This is a nightmare fight for Arlovski. These guys have very similar styles, the only difference is that Kharitonov is better at everything basically and has a much better chin. I don’t think this will be a very long fight. Both guys will be looking to trade, and Kharitonov has more than enough power to exploit Arlovski’s chin. Kharitonov by T/KO.

Prediction: Sergei Kharitonov via second round T/KO.

To add  some excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Strikeforce Heavyweight GP Reserve bout:   Valentijn Overeem vs. Ray Sefo

Odds:  (-150 Overeem /+120 Sefo )

Betting Pick:  Overeem

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In the first reserve bout of Strikeforce’s Heavyweight Grand Prix, two long-time veterans will look to hopefully earn a spot in the tournament as Valentijn Overeem, brother of Strikeforce champion Alistair Overeem, squares off against K-1 veteran Ray Sefo. Sefo only has two MMA fights under his belt, but he has a wealth of kickboxing experience and extremely formidable striking, so this could be a great fight.

To call Ray Sefo a mixed martial artist would be a misnomer. He is a pure kickboxer who just so happens to be fighting under Mixed Martial Arts rules. To expect anything resembling a ground game from him would be a mistake. He is a one-dimensional striker, but that one dimension is extremely formidable. He has knockout power with punches, kicks, and knees, great speed and accuracy, great defense, and is very technically sound.

Valentijn Overeem is an extremely seasoned veteran. His record is barely over .500 after over 50 professional fights, but that record belies how many offensive skills he has. While nowhere near his brother’s level, Overeem is an accomplished striker with good power and he can finish fights on the ground with submissions. His problems have always been questionable defense in the striking game and extremely poor submission defense. Obviously he doesn’t have to worry about the latter against Sefo.

This fight comes down to whether or not Overeem can drag Sefo to the ground before he gets his lights turned out. I would tend to think that he can. Overeem is not totally inept on his feet but he won’t last long in a kickboxing match against Sefo. I think Overeem should be able to take Sefo down, though, and expecting anything from Sefo off his back would be foolish. Overeem by submission.

Prediction: Valentijn Overeen via first round Kimura.

To add  some excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…