Tag: General MMA betting

Mark Hominick vs. George Roop

Odds:  (-240 Hominick /+190 Roop )

Betting Pick:  Hominick

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In what is sure to be a very competitive 145 pound bout, recent WEC transfers Mark Hominick and George Roop will go at it and try to distinguish themselves in UFC’s newest, and arguably most competitive, division. Both of these guys are solid contenders with well-rounded skill sets who are capable of competing at the highest level, so this should be a great fight.

Roop, who is coming off a vicious head kick KO of the “Korean Zombie” in his last fight, is actually more effective on the ground generally. He obviously has powerful striking, but his best work is done with wrestling, positional control, and jiu-jitsu. Against Hominick he is going to need to mix it up, because he can be submitted on the ground if he tries to force a one-dimensional ground fight. If he can put his striking and grappling together, though, he will be in a great position to win.

Hominick, a tough Canadian currently riding a four fight win streak, is also a very skilled and well-rounded guy whose best work comes on the ground. He also has very good standup, though, which makes him an extremely dangerous opponent for anyone. He has the tools to win this fight, he just has to keep his game plan together and fight a smart fight.

This is an interesting fight in that both guys are similar stylistically. Hominick has better standup, but both guys can finish fights on the ground or be finished themselves, so this could go a number of ways. I think the edge has to go to Hominick, though. I think he is just a little better overall, and should be able to do enough to earn a narrow decision win.

 Prediction:  Mark Hominick via Split Decision.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Melvin Guillard vs. Evan Dunham

Odds:  (+185 Guillard /-225 Dunham )

Betting Pick:  Dunham

Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com 

In the main event, once-beaten world Number 10 Lightweight Evan Dunham looks to rebound from his first professional loss, a narrow split decision against former champ Sean Sherk, against athletic contender Melvin Guillard. Dunham is extremely formidable and some felt he did enough to earn the win against Sherk, but Guillard has been constantly improving since his move to Greg Jackson’s camp in New Mexico, so this should be a competitive main event.

Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard, an Ultimate Fighter alum who has put together a very successful UFC career since his stint on the show, is a very dynamic and athletic fighter with great speed and strength to go along with his dangerous striking. Guillard can wrestle, overpower his opponents, put a hurting on them from top position, or put them away with standup striking. The only real hole in Guillard’s game has historically been his submission defense, but even that has improved since his move to Albequerque. In the past, Guillard has been prone to wildness inside the Octagon, and so one of the most important things for him in this fight will be to stick to Jackson’s game plan and use all his tools effectively without creating openings for Dunham.

Dunham, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who fights out of the famed Xtreme Couture gym in Las Vegas, is a very formidable wrestler with solid submissions and a great overall ground game. He showed remarkable toughness in his last fight, surviving a first-round blitz from Sherk to handle himself well in the last two rounds, which many observers felt he won. Dunham has a huge stylistic advantage here in that he is more than capable of exploiting Guillard’s porous submission defense, but he is going to have to fight cautiously to avoid Guillard’s powerful standup and superior physical strength.

This is a terrible matchup for Guillard, who stepped up on late notice to replace the injured Kenny Florian. “The Young Assassin” has grown a lot as a fighter over the last few years, but Dunham is still perfectly positioned to exploit the weakest part of Guillard’s game, which is his submission defense. Both guys are physical specimens, but I think Dunham has superior technique in terms of wrestling and jiu-jitsu. I expect him to control Guillard with wrestling, neutralize his offense, and eventually catch him with a submission for the win.

Prediction:  Evan Dunham via Rear Naked Choke. 

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Patrick Barry vs. Joey Beltran

Odds:  (-225 Barry /+185 Beltran )

Betting Pick:   Barry

Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com

In a heavyweight bout that has a lot of potential for fireworks, two big-time sluggers will go at it as Pat Barry squares off against Joey Beltran. Both of these guys have serious striking with a lot of power and a willingness to trade shots, so this could be a knockout of the night contender.

Barry, a heavy-handed slugger who uses his kicks better than almost anyone in the Heavyweight division, is a very dangerous standup fighter. He lacked lackluster in his last fight, a submission loss to Mirko Cro Cop, but he doled out a lot of punishment nonetheless and fought through some pretty severe injuries sustained during the bout. That fight aside, Barry is a serious kickboxer who can rock opponents with his hands and also bruise them up and destroy their mobility with his crushing leg kicks. Those kicks could be a huge factor here, because Beltran is a serious striker himself, and if Barry can use leg kicks to take away his power base that is a massive advantage.

Joey “Mexicutioner” Beltran is also coming off a tough loss in his last fight against Matt Mitrione. Like Barry, though, Beltran has the kind of striking that can end fights at any time. He is a much more experienced fighter than Barry, and arguably has better punching, but he does not integrate kicks into his offense nearly as well. His ability to deflect Barry’s low kicks or to make Barry pay for throwing them are going to be the difference between a win and a loss for Beltran.

Both of these guys could end this fight with any given shot, but I think the edge here has to go to Barry. Both guys are formidable, but Barry’s thudding leg kicks are going to be a new look for Beltran, and he is either going to have to abandon some of his offense to defend them or lose some of his power and movement when Barry kicks his legs to a pulp. I think Barry’s superior leg and body work will be the difference, and he will wear down Beltran before ultimately finishing him with strikes. Barry by T/KO.

Prediction:  Pat Barry via second round T/KO.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Cole Miller vs. Matt Wiman

Odds:  (-170 Miller /+140 Wiman )

Betting Pick:  Miller

Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com

In the opening bout of the evening, well-rounded Lightweight contender Matt Wiman will face a stiff challenge, as he must contend with the world-class submissions of Cole “Magrinho” Miller. Wiman is very well rounded and has never been submitted, but Miller’s jiu-jitsu is on a level he has never had to deal with before, so this should be an interesting and competitive fight.

Matt Wiman is a tough and scrappy veteran with a rather versatile skill set. Wiman is a formidable grappler, with solid wrestling and good submissions. He also has dangerous ground and pound, good positional control, and serviceable standup. To add to all that, Wiman is a very tough guy who has only been finished once in his career, by Spencer Fisher in a fight he took on short notice. Still, he has never faced a grappler of Miller’s caliber and he runs the risks of trying to impose his gameplan and playing right into Miller’s strengths, so he is going to need a great strategy and a career performance if he wants to score the upset.

Cole “Magrinho” Miller is one of the most prolific submission finishers in the UFC. He is not as wellrounded as a lot of the other top contenders in the Lightweight division, and his chin is capable of being exploited, but his prowess on the ground is undeniable and hardly any of his opponents have an answer for his jiu-jitsu. Wiman is not a world-class striker, but Miller should still be wary about standing with him. If Miller can force this into a ground war, he has the clear edge in positional control, sweeps, escapes, and especially submissions.

I think that this matchup favors Miller stylistically. The wrestling should be about even, but on the ground Miller is far more effective and Wiman’s standup is not dangerous enough for him to really take Miller off his game. Wiman is most effective going for takedowns and working top position, but that is going to backfire in a huge way against Miller. Miller by submission.

Prediction:  Cole Miller via third round triangle choke.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Cole Miller vs. Matt Wiman

Odds:  (-170 Miller /+140 Wiman )

Betting Pick:  Miller

Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com

In the opening bout of the evening, well-rounded Lightweight contender Matt Wiman will face a stiff challenge, as he must contend with the world-class submissions of Cole “Magrinho” Miller. Wiman is very well rounded and has never been submitted, but Miller’s jiu-jitsu is on a level he has never had to deal with before, so this should be an interesting and competitive fight.

Matt Wiman is a tough and scrappy veteran with a rather versatile skill set. Wiman is a formidable grappler, with solid wrestling and good submissions. He also has dangerous ground and pound, good positional control, and serviceable standup. To add to all that, Wiman is a very tough guy who has only been finished once in his career, by Spencer Fisher in a fight he took on short notice. Still, he has never faced a grappler of Miller’s caliber and he runs the risks of trying to impose his gameplan and playing right into Miller’s strengths, so he is going to need a great strategy and a career performance if he wants to score the upset.

Cole “Magrinho” Miller is one of the most prolific submission finishers in the UFC. He is not as wellrounded as a lot of the other top contenders in the Lightweight division, and his chin is capable of being exploited, but his prowess on the ground is undeniable and hardly any of his opponents have an answer for his jiu-jitsu. Wiman is not a world-class striker, but Miller should still be wary about standing with him. If Miller can force this into a ground war, he has the clear edge in positional control, sweeps, escapes, and especially submissions.

I think that this matchup favors Miller stylistically. The wrestling should be about even, but on the ground Miller is far more effective and Wiman’s standup is not dangerous enough for him to really take Miller off his game. Wiman is most effective going for takedowns and working top position, but that is going to backfire in a huge way against Miller. Miller by submission.

Prediction:  Cole Miller via third round triangle choke.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.   Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

UFC recently announced that the next season of The Ultimate Fighter will pit two tough Heavyweight coaches against each other as former champion Brock Lesnar looks to lead his team to victory against the team of tough Brazilian striker Junior dos Santos. As always, once the reality show is over, the two coaches will meet in what is sure to be a hotly contested bout. Lesnar is one of the most dominant wrestlers in the sport, but dos Santos is an extremely formidable puncher and Lesnar has proven that he is not a big fan of being hit.

Obviously, this fight is still a long way off, but many sportsbooks are already offering early odds. This is great news for anyone interested in betting on the fight, because it gives you an opportunity to take advantage of some slightly skewed odds before time and betting patterns bring them back to normal. The first step is obviously deciding which guy you want to place your bet on. Lesnar had a hard time dealing with the striking of Carwin and Velasquez, and dos Santos is far more dangerous on the feet than either of those guys. On the other hand, Carwin and Velasquez both have serious wrestling pedigrees that dos Santos clearly lacks. Obviously dos Santos has a solid chance of knocking out Lesnar, but I don’t think he has the tools to keep Lesnar from bullying him onto his back and physically mauling him from top position. I think this is a good style matchup for Lesnar, and that he is a very attractive bet especially with these skewed early odds.

Brock Lesnar’s last five opponents:

• Loss against Cain Velasquez via first round TKO.
• Win against Shane Carwin via arm triangle at UFC 116.
• Win against Frank Mir via TKO at UFC 100.
• Win against Randy Couture via TKO at UFC 91.
• Win against Heath Herring via unanimous decision at UFC 87.

Junior Dos Santos last five opponents:

• Win against Roy Nelson via unanimous decision at UFC 117.
• Win against Gabriel Gonzaga via KO at UFC on Versus 1.
• Win against Gilbert Yvel via TKO at UFC 108.
• Win against Mirko Cro Cop via submission (punches) at UFC 103.
• Win against Stefan Struve via TKO at UFC 95.

Brock Lesnar vs. Junior Dos Santos

Sportsbook.com Odds

• Lesnar             (even)
• Dos Santos     (-130)

Bodog.com Odds

• Lesnar             (even)
• Dos Santos     (-130)

Betus.com Odds

• Lesnar              (+120)
• Dos Santos      (-150)

Regardless of who you favor, the earlier you get your bets in the better your chances of getting favorable odds. Make sure to check around at the different sportsbooks and see who is offering the best odds for your fighter, and keep checking back at mmabettingblog.com for the lastest news, updates, videos, and predictions.

If you want to get an early jump on these UFC  Odds for Lesnar vs. Dos Santos,  you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com or one of our other MMA Betting Sites.