Tag: General MMA betting

UFC Welterweight bout:  Nate Diaz vs. Dong Hyun Kim

Odds:  (even Diaz /-130 Hyun Kim )

Betting Pick:  Diaz

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In what should be a competitive and entertaining Welterweight showdown, Nate Diaz will look to continue his 170 pound win streak against tough competitor Dong Hyun “Stun Gun” Kim. Both of these guys are very well-rounded, with solid striking and ground games, but Diaz is the more technical of the two while Kim is the more physically imposing, so this should be a great fight.

Dong Hyun Kim, a South Korean standout with a versatile skill set, has had a very successful UFC stint so far. Mixing solid boxing with good wrestling and very effective throws from the clinch, Kim is very good at controlling opponents. While he is not exactly a proficient finisher, he does a very good job of neutralizing his opponents and he is not easy to put off his game plan.

Diaz, who recently moved up from 155 after a couple of ridiculously undeserved decision losses, has looked very good at Welterweight so far. Like his brother Nick, Nate has very unorthodox but effective boxing and his punches come from strangle angles that are difficult for opponents to handle. He also has some of the best jiu-jitsu in the UFC at 170 pounds. His only problem is that he is not a very good wrestler and not a very strong guy, so he has trouble dealing with dominant physical grapplers, although he does have very effective and underrated throws from the clinch.

This is a very interesting stylistic matchup. Diaz is the superior striker and has far better submissions, but Kim is much stronger and more physical and has the kind of takedowns and control that have been known to give Diaz problems in the past. Still, I think this one favors Diaz. He will easily outstrike Kim and his clinch work is probably good enough to hold Kim off. Even if Kim does manage to get this fight to the ground, Diaz has excellent sweeps and submissions that Kim has never had to deal with before. I think Diaz will frustrate Kim on the feet, hold him off in the grappling game, and earn a unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Nate Diaz via Unanimous Decision.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at  Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC bout:  Clay Guida vs. Takanori Gomi

Odds:  ( Guida / Gomi )

Betting Pick:  Gomi

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In the second bout of the televised card, former PRIDE champion Takanori Gomi faces a stiff challenge in dynamic wrestler Clay “The Carpenter” Guida. Gomi has serious knockout power and underrated wrestling, but Guida’s dominant wrestling and relentless pace are notoriously difficult for opponents to deal with, so this should be a competitive and exciting bout.

Guida, best known for his shaggy mane of hair and the breakneck pace of his fights, is one of the more exciting and dynamic wrestlers in the sport. His standup is neither technical nor powerful, but he can put opponents off their game with volume of punching. Still, his best work clearly comes in the wrestling, where he is relentless and effective. There is no question that it would be a huge mistake for him to try and stand with Gomi for any significant amount of time, so he is going to have be even more aggressive than usual with getting this fight to the ground if he wants to escape with a win.

Gomi, who dominated PRIDE’s lightweight division for years, has a ridiculous highlight reel of vicious knockouts on his resume. His power punching is so spectacular that a lot of times people forget that he also has very underrated wrestling and can work effectively from top position as well. Still, against Guida, there is very little chance that he will successfully use his wrestling offensively. Instead he will have to try to use his skills to keep this fight upright, where he will blast Guida with ease. Keeping a fight with Guida upright, though, is nowhere near as simple as it sounds.

I think that this is a good fight for Gomi. Guida is clearly the better wrestler, but Gomi is not totally helpless and has pretty good takedown defense whereas Guida has absolutely nothing for Gomi on the feet. I think Gomi will make Guida pay for his lack of boxing defense and take this one by T/KO.

Prediction:  Takanori Gomi via second round T/KO.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at  Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Lightweight bout:  Jeremy Stephens vs. Marcus Davis

Odds:  (Stephens / Davis )

Betting Pick:  Davis

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In a fight that promises some serious fireworks, dynamic strikers Jeremy “Lil’ Heathen” Stephens and Marcus “The Irish Hand Grenade” Davis will square off in Davis’ Lightweight debut. Stephens is a very good striker, but Davis is extremely formidable. The big question is how Davis will handle the weight cut, and whether it will affect his speed or power.

Jeremy Stephens is an extremely tough brawler with solid wrestling and very heavy hands. In recent bouts he has had mixed results, so this is a huge fight for him if he wants to keep his roster spot with all of WEC’s lightweights incoming. Stephens always has a puncher’s chance, but it is unlikely that he will be able to outbox Davis for any period of time or that he will have much luck forcing Davis into a ground game.

Davis is a very dynamic striker with good accuracy and power who also has a solid ground game. He had mixed results at Welterweight, so he is making his first appearance at 155. As long as he plays it safe and doesn’t let Stephens drag him into a wild brawl, he should have more than enough technique to outbox Stephens easily.

I think this one should be all Davis unless the weight cut affects him disastrously. He is the superior striker, the stronger guy, and he should be able to prevent Stephens from taking this fight anywhere he doesn’t want it to go. I expect Davis to control this one bell to bell for the decision win.

Prediction:  Marcus Davis via Unanimous Decision.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at  Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Featherweight bout:  Dustin Poirier vs. Josh Grispi

Odds:  ( Poirier / Grispi )

Betting Pick:  Grispi

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In the night’s second 145 pound contest, Dustin Poirier steps up on short notice to replace injured champion Jose Aldo against top contender Josh Grispi. Poirier is tough and well-rounded but Grispi is a massive step up in competition for him, so coupled with the short notice he might be in for a long night.

Poirier, who went 1-1 in the WEC before the merger, has decent submissions, decent wrestling, and solid punching power. He is not a standout in any one area but he is pretty good at everything and there are no huge holes in his game. He only has one loss as a professional and has never been finished, so he should be able to at least hang in there, but he is going to have a hard time imposing his will on Grispi.

Grispi, who was slated to be recieving a title shot in the co-main event before Aldo was sidelined with an injury, is extremely well rounded and can finish fights standing and on the ground. He has great boxing with solid power and extremely effective submissions. Just as importantly, he puts it all together very well and can roll with a fight anywhere it goes.

This is a glorified warm-up match for Grispi, who needed an opponent while he waits for Aldo to get healthy again. Poirier is not a total pushover, and should be tough enough to make it a fight for a while, but eventually Grispi will catch him for the T/KO victory.

Prediction:  Josh Grispi via second round T/KO.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at  Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Middleweight bout:  Phil Baroni vs. Brad Tavares

Odds:  ( Baroni / Tavares )

Betting Pick:  Tavares

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In the opening bout of the evening, two tough brawlers will go at it in the Middleweight division as long-time veteran Phil Baroni takes on Ultimate Fighter alum Brad Tavares. Both of these guys have heavy hands, but Tavares is the much more complete and in-shape fighter. Baroni is usually very dangerous for one round and then fizzles out due to lack of conditioning, so if Tavares can hang on long enough he will be in a great position to take this one.

Baroni, a long-time veteran currently in his second stint with the UFC, is an extremely dangerous puncher. He also had pretty decent takedowns and savage ground and pound, but his best work is definitely done on the feet, where his power punching has the ability to put down anyone he connects with. His problem is that he has never really grown as a fighter, which means that he pretty much relies solely on the power in his hands to win him fights. He is also in notoriously bad shape, and his gas tank has pretty much never lasted past the end of the first round. That takes a lot of the effectiveness of his striking away, because opponents can just fight him defensively until he runs out of gas and then pounce on him, much like Amir Sadollah did in a recent fight.

Tavares, a tough-as-nails Hawaiian, made his way into the UFC through the Ultimate Fighter reality show. After amassing a few wins, he was sent packing by eventual winner Court McGee after a back and forth affair. Tavares has powerful strikes, solid submissions, and good wrestling, and is a very tough guy with a great chin and a lot of heart.

Like all of Baroni’s fights, this one comes down to whether or not Tavares can stay out of Baroni’s way early in the fight. If Tavares is too reckless and content to stand in the pocket with Baroni in the first round, he is going to get shellacked most likely. If he can use his superior movement, though, and make Baroni worry about takedowns early in the fight, he should have no problem wearing Baroni out and then taking this one over. I expect that is how it will go, and Tavares will survive some early adversity before taking this one in hand and controlling the action for a 2 rounds to 1 decision win.

Prediction:  Brad Tavares via Unanimous Decision.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at  Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Featherweight bout:  Mike Thomas Brown vs. Diego Nunes

Odds:  ( Brown / Nunes )

Betting Pick:  Brown

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In the very first 145 pound bout in UFC’s history, former WEC champion Mike Thomas Brown will face well-rounded WEC veteran Diego “The Gun” Nunes in what should be a great match. These were two of WEC’s best at 145, and both guys have heavy hands and top-notch ground games, so this has all the makings of a very competitive affair.

Nunes, who has only suffered one loss as a professional, is a very well-rounded fighter with a great ground game and standup that is both technical and powerful, is the complete package. He isn’t always a prolific finisher, but he does have the ability to end fights both standing and on the ground and has never been finished himself. This is by far the toughest fight of his career, though, so he is going to need a flawless performance and a great game plan if he wants to have a successful UFC debut.

Despite his recent troubles, including crushing losses to Manny Gamburyan and Jose Aldo, Mike Thomas Brown is easily one of the most dangerous fighters in the world at 145 pounds. His grappling is extremely dominant, and he has great boxing and a lot of punching power to go with it. Any fight he is in could end at any second, no matter where it is, because he has knockout power standing and from top position and can submit guys from anywhere.

I think Nunes is just overmatched in this one. The two are stylistically similar, but Brown is just better both standing and on the ground. He is a better finisher with better boxing, and he has fought a much higher level of competition and has a vast experience advantage. I think he will frustrate Nunes on the feet and eventually drop him and choke him out. Brown by submission.

Prediction:  Mike Brown via second round Rear Naked Choke. 

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at  Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…