Tag: General MMA betting

UFC Welterweight bout:  Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago

Odds:  ( +100 Sanchez / -130 Thiago )

Betting Pick:  Paulo Thiago

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In the third bout, Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez, coming off two disappointing losses in a row, will look to get back into the win column against tough as nails Brazilian Paulo Thiago. Thiago has been thrown in with the sharks repeatedly since debuting in the UFC, and Sanchez is another really tough fight for him, so this is an interesting matchup and an important one for both guys’ careers.

Despite his recent setbacks, Diego Sanchez has had a very successful UFC career since winning the inaugural season of The Ultimate Fighter. A solid wrestler with good ground and pound and an effective submission game to back it up, Sanchez makes his opponents’ lives miserable by keeping up a relentless place from bell to bell and overwhelming them with aggression. When Sanchez has a problem is when he can’t force his opponents onto the defensive and when his wrestling is stifled. If he is forced to rely on his standup against Thiago, he is going to be in a lot of trouble.

Thiago is also a very well-rounded fighter, although he lacks the wrestling acumen that Sanchez has. He makes up for it though by having vastly superior striking with a lot more power and better submissions as well. When you consider the level of opposition he has faced in the UFC, Thiago’s record is extremely impressive. The only thing that has held him back so far is his inability to deal with superior wrestlers. There is no doubt that Sanchez is a better wrestler than Thiago, but he is not as dominant as Fitch or Martin Kampmann so it remains to be seen whether he will be able to put Thiago off his game.

I think the edge in this one has to go to Thiago. On the feet he is way better than Sanchez, and even if Sanchez manages to get this fight to the ground, Thiago is very good at sweeping, escaping, and submitting opponents. I think Sanchez is going to have trouble taking Thiago down though, and that spells disaster. Thiago should win the striking exchanges easily and stuff enough takedowns and neutralize Sanchez on the ground enough to earn the decision win.

Prediction:  Paulo Thiago via unanimous decision.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

UFC Heavyweight bout:  Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

Odds:  ( -160 Gonzaga / +130 Schaub )

Betting Pick:  Brendan Schaub

Bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com

In the opening bout of the evening, recent Ultimate Fighter finalist Brendan Schaub will face his toughest test since signing a contract in the form of Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga. Schaub has great power and is very athletic, but Gonzaga is heavy-handed and has a world class ground game, so this is a good litmus test for how bright Schaub’s future in the division really is.

Schaub, who steamrolled his way through The Ultimate Fighter before being knocked out in the final by Roy Nelson, is one of the most athletic and explosive heavyweights in the UFC. A giant guy with good boxing and a lot of punching power, Schaub is an extremely imposing figure. He also has fairly decent wrestling, and has very good cardio for such a big fighter. The biggest question marks are his chin, which Roy Nelson exposed as vulnerable, and his submission defense, which has never really been tested the way Gonzaga is capable of testing it.

Gonzaga has some of the best submissions at Heavyweight, but oftentimes chooses not to employ them. Instead, he tends to rely on his standup, which is fairly formidable in its own right. The problem is, while he has serious knockout power in his hands, he doesn’t have a durable chin to go along with it and his cardio is more than a little suspect, which means his punches start to lose power fairly quickly.

One thing is certain, and that is that this will be a short fight. Both Schaub and Gonzaga will be more than happy to exchange power punches, the question is who will land first and hardest. I have to give the edge to Schaub, in that regard. Both guys pack a mean punch, but Schaub is quicker and lighter on his feet, and should be able to exploit that speed advantage and KO Gonzaga.

Prediction:  Brendan “The Hybrid” Schaub via second round KO.

• Bet  on the UnderDog  Schaub to pull off the Win at +130.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…