Tag: General MMA betting

Welterweight Championship bout: Nick Diaz vs. KJ Noons

Odds:  (-215 Diaz / +175 Noons )

Betting Pick:  Nick Diaz

In the main event of the evening, reigning Strikeforce Welterweight champion Nick Diaz will defend his crown against KJ Noons, the last man to defeat him. In their first meeting, Noons turned Diaz’s face to mince meat with deadly accurate punching, but Diaz has won seven in a row since, had his facial structure surgically reconfigured, and moved up in weight, so it is curious to see whether Noons, who took time away from the sport before returning this year, will be able to replicate the dominant performance he turned in last time.

Noons, coming off a crushing TKO victory over UFC veteran Jorge Gurgel, showed the kind of boxing in that fight that makes him such a dangerous opponent for anyone. While he is a far cry from a well-rounded mixed martial artist, Noons is one of the best in the sport at what he does, and what he does is box effectively. His handspeed, accuracy, and punching power are all top-notch, a lesson Diaz learned the hard way in their first meeting. While Diaz has come a long way in the striking department since their first meeting, the edge almost has to go to Noons in any standup exchanges. The question is whether Noons’ ground game has grown at the same pace as Diaz’s striking and whether or not he will be able to stay out of trouble if Diaz decides to take the fight to the ground.

Diaz, for his part, has been on an absolute tear since dropping the first fight with Noons. Victimized by Noons’ blazing handspeed and falling victim to a number of the horrid cuts to which he was prone, Diaz took matters into his own hands and had a facial surgery to remove excess bone and scar tissue and make him less prone to being cut. He has always been one of the most dangerous submission artists in the sport, but in recent fights he has shown a vastly improved standup attack. His striking is not as technical or textbook as Noons’, but his odd angles and rapid-fire punching have proven extremely difficult for opponents to deal with. Still, standing and trading shots with Noons for that long is a risky proposition to put it mildly. It is obvious that Diaz is light years beyond Noons on the ground, the question is whether or not he will actually try to force the fight to the ground or if he will be content to yet again rely on his boxing to try and pull out a win.

Despite Noons’ dominant win in the first fight, I think the edge here has to go to Diaz. For one thing, he has addressed some of the issues that caused him issues in their first meeting, specifically his tendency to get badly cut. For another, his standup is on a whole different level than it was during their first fight. Most important, though, is the fact that Noons has nothing but boxing to rely on, whereas Diaz has a top-notch ground game. Diaz is known for engaging in reckless brawls, but I highly doubt he is going to allow Noons to box him around for five rounds. Eventually he will take this fight to the ground, and when he does it will be academic. Diaz by submission.

Fight Prediction:  Nick Diaz via third round submission.

• KJ fans that think he can pull it off one more time can get back a good return with KJ Noons @+175 odds.

To add a little excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Lightweight bout: Josh Thomson vs. Gesias “JZ” Cavalcante

Odds:  ( -170 Thomson /+140 Cavalcante )

Betting Pick:  Josh Thomson

The co-main event is a very competitive Lightweight bout pitting skilled wrestler Josh “The Punk” Thomson against K-1 and DREAM veteran Gesias “JZ” Cavalcante. Cavalcante is one of the most dynamic stars in the Japanese scene, but Thomson is notorious for completely neutralizing his opponents’ offense with dominant wrestling and top control, so JZ is going to have his hands full in his Strikeforce debut.

Cavalcante, who has fought mainly in DREAM and K-1 Hero’s, is a very dynamic and well-rounded competitor. A skilled striker with solid boxing and good punching power, he also has a very good ground game and is quite effective at submitting opponents. He is also a very tough guy, having never been finished as a professional, which is especially impressive considering he has fought some of Japan’s best Lightweights. The only real hole in JZ’s game is his wrestling, both offensively and defensively. While he is capable of submitting guys off his back, his positioning on the ground and ability to sweep and escape are not up to snuff yet, and his takedowns and takedown defense are both mediocre, which is going to be a real problem against Thomson.

Josh Thomson, one of the most underrated Lightweights in the world, has won nine of his last ten fights and his only loss came to current Strikeforce Lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez, who he also has a victory over. Thomson’s striking is definitely nothing to write home about, but he makes up for it with very good wrestling, a dominant positional control game, and very underrated submissions from top position. Thomson’s fights are not always pretty, but he is one of the best in the division at taking guys down and holding them there, preventing them from mounting any real offense against him.

This fight is going to be very difficult for JZ to win. He has a very clear edge in the striking department, but he doesn’t have what it takes to keep Thomson from taking him down at will. On the ground, JZ has some decent submissions, but Thomson has great defense and is excellent at controlling position from the top. JZ went the distance with Shinya Aoki, so it is unlikely that Thomson will be able to submit him or finish him on the ground at all, but “The Punk” should have no problem taking JZ down, sitting on top of him throwing shots, and earning a lopsided decision win.

Fight Prediction:  Josh Thomson via unanaimous decision.

To add a little excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Welterweight bout: Tyron Woodley vs. Andre Galvao

Odds:  (-275 Woodley / +215 Galvao )

Betting Pick:  Tyron Woodley

In the opening bout of the evening, undefeated prospect Tyron “T-Wood” Woodley will look to keep his unblemished record intact against Team Nogueira’s Andre Galvao. Both men are very skilled grapplers, although they come from different backgrounds, so this should be a very competitive ground war. What makes this fight even more interesting is that this is a step up in competition for both guys, so it remains to be seen which one will continue to advance up the ladder.

Galvao, who trains with the Nogueira brothers, has a very good overall ground game and underrated Muay Thai. His boxing and clinch work are solid if not overwhelming, and he can work from any position on the ground fairly effectively. The only issue with his style is that he lacks the ability to really take control of the pace and position of a fight, which could well be disastrous against a wrestler as good as Woodley.

Woodley, an undefeated prospect out of American Top Team, is a very skilled and dominant wrestler. Unlike many guys who enter the sport with an amateur wrestling background, though, Woodley is not a one-dimensional “lay and pray” artist. His submission game from top position is very effective and he has some solid ground and pound also.

This is not a very good stylistic matchup for Galvao at all. Woodley will control when, where, and how this fight goes to the ground, and unlike a lot of wrestlers his jiu-jitsu is good enough to keep Galvao at bay on the ground. Expect Woodley to physically manhandle Galvao for the majority of this fight, bruising him up from top position, and ultimately winning the unanimous decision.

Fight Prediction:  Tyron Woodley via unanimous decision.

To add a little excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Women’s Welterweight Championship (135 lbs) bout: Sarah Kaufman vs. Marloes Coenen

Odds:  (-295 Kaufman / +235 Coenen )

Betting Pick:  Sarah Kaufman

In the second bout of the televised event, Women’s Welterweight champion Sarah Kaufman will look to defend her title against skilled grappler Marloes Coenen. Coenen has extremely good jiu-jitsu, but Kaufman is no slouch on the ground either and has far superior standup, so it remains to be seen whether Coenen can be successful in her second attempt at capturing a Strikeforce belt.

Marloes Coenen, one of the most prolific female grapplers in the sport, will enter this fight coming off a crushing loss to Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos in her bid to capture the Women’s 145 pound title. Now she will move down a weight class and give it another go. Unfortunately for her, this matchup looks a lot like the one against Cyborg minus the weight difference. Coenen will clearly be the better grappler in this fight, but Kaufman has really excellent standup that she is going to habe trouble dealing with.

Kaufman, undefeated so far as a professional, is a very formidable striker who actually has a fairly solid ground game although she does not utilize it much. Her bread and butter is her boxing, which is very technical and powerful, and her gameplan against Coenen will clearly be to keep the fight standing and box her around, something she is more than capable of doing. It is important that she is wary of takedown attempts though, since Coenen is far superior in the grappling department.

This is Kaufman’s fight to lose. Coenen is far better on the ground, but she has no answer for Kaufman’s standup, and that is going to prove fatal. Kaufman isn’t totally lost on the ground, but I doubt the fight will even make it there. Expect Kaufman to put a hurting on Coenen with her hands before winning by TKO.

Fight Prediction:  Sarah Kaufman via second round T/KO.

To add a little excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…