Tag: General MMA betting

Lightweight Championship bout: Frankie Edgar vs. B.J. Penn

Odds:  (-300 Penn /+220 Edgar )

Betting Pick:  BJ Penn

The main event is a huge rematch for the Lightweight title, with champion Frankie “The Answer” Edgar looking to retain his belt against the man he just took it from, BJ “The Prodigy” Penn. Their first fight ended with a controversial decision, as many felt that Penn did enough to win three of the five rounds despited the ridiculously lopsided scores. The question is whether Penn will be able to assert himself better, or if Edgar really has “The Answer” for Penn’s multi-faceted attack.

The champ, Frankie Edgar, is an extremely well-rounded fighter. Although he is not a prolific submission finisher, his jiu-jitsu is very good and he is extremely difficult to submit. In a similar vein, his boxing is not very powerful but his accuracy, footwork, and head movement are top notch, which makes him very difficult to hit and very adept and counterpunching. Where he really shines, though, is in the wrestling, which he proved by being the first and only Lightweight who ever managed to take down BJ Penn. His slippery boxing style coupled with dominant takedowns and good submission defense make him one of the toughest fighters in the world to come out with a win against.

Obviously, BJ Penn is one of the most dynamic fighters in the world. A very technical boxer with a good amount of punching power, Penn is also one of the best jiu-jitsu artists in the world, having never been submitted and holding a whole host of impressive submission wins. His takedown defense is also notoriously hard to crack, although Edgar did manage it in their last fight. The one problem Penn is going to face more than any other is that his offensive wrestling just isn’t good enough to take Edgar down. He could probably dominate from top position on the ground, but to get there he is probably going to have to get taken down himself and sweep Edgar, and that is a daunting task for anyone.

Personally, I thought that Penn won the first fight with Edgar, although it was certainly very close. It is clear that Penn has a better chance of finishing the fight, with punches or on the ground with a submission, but Edgar has also never been finished and is extremely resilient and hard to get a hold of. Still, I think Penn’s gameplan will be much more aggressive this time around and that he will win the boxing exchanges enough and stop Edgar’s takedowns enough to actually earn the decision.

Prediction:  BJ “The Prodigy” Penn via unanimous decision.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Heavyweight bout: Randy Couture vs. James Toney

Odds:  (-550 Couture /+350 Toney )

Betting Pick:  Randy Couture

In the semi-main event, UFC Hall of Famer Randy Couture will try to settle years of internet and sports talk debate as he faces former champion boxer James Toney. Toney is past his prime and has no legitimate credentials outside of boxing, but he is easily the highest-profile and most skilled professional boxer ever to compete in MMA, which makes this at least somewhat interesting.

Obviously, Randy Couture is one of the fighters whose name will forever be synonymous with MMA and the UFC in particular. A multiple-time champion in two weight classes, Couture’s continual defiance of age and expectations made him the sport’s foremost legend. It is clear to any impartial observer, though, that age has finally caught up with him and that “Captain America” doesn’t have many more miracles up his sleeve. Against skilled fighters in their prime, Couture will never be a contender again. Luckily for him, Toney is neither a skilled fighter nor in his prime, so Randy might be able to cap his career off with one more high-profile win.

James Toney was an extremely formidable boxer in his heyday, but age and an almost miltant aversion to exercise have put an end to any legitimacy he ever had. Compounding the issue is the seemingly nonchalant manner in which Toney is handling the switch of sports. If you take Toney’s hype talk at face value, he doesn’t seem to think that such things as wrestling and jiu-jitsu are going to make much difference, and that is clearly not going to be a very profitable mindframe for him.

Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying that it is impossible for Couture to lose this fight. His chin is hardly made of granite, and he does have a tendency to get caught and dropped in most of his fights lately. Conventional wisdom is that a boxer like Toney wearing 4 oz. gloves is going to put away anyone he connects with, Toney did score a KO victory in his last bout, but was never a very heavy-handed puncher to begin with. Still, he does have a puncher’s chance, but if he wants to cash in on it he is going to need to do it with one of his first two punches, because that is the maximum he will be allowed to throw before Couture clinches with him, shoves him into the cage, works him over, throws him on his back, and submits him in routine fashion.

Prediction:  Randy “The Natural” Couture via first round rear naked choke.

• A bet on Toney @+350 isnt a bad idea.  If Toney can clip Couture before he goes for the takedown he can win this fight.  Randy likes to clinch, not known to shoot much, I think Toney can possibly get some shots in.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Muhammed Lawal vs. Rafael Cavalcante

Odds:  ( -500 Lawal /+300 Cavalcante )

The main event promises to be a barn-burner, as champ Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal defends his Light Heavyweight title against one of Brazil’s most formidable strikers, Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante. Both of these guys have punching power in excess, which makes this an exciting matchup anyway, but Cavalcante is easily the superior striker technically while Lawal brings dominant wrestling to the table as well, so this is an interesting stylistic matchup.

Cavalcante, despite coming from the famed Team Noguiera, is not known for his ground game. Instead he is best known for his punishing boxing and Muay Thai, which he uses to completely overwhelm most of his opponents. There is no question that if Lawal tries to engage him standing, Cavalcante is the better striker and has what it takes to put King Mo away. The question is whether his chin can hold up to the kind of bombs Lawal is known to throw, and more importantly whether he has what it takes to prevent Lawal from taking him down and working him over from top position.

Lawal, the undefeated Light Heavyweight champion, earned his crown by throwing huge bombs with vicious intent and working a dominating wrestling game. Lawal can let leather fly from range or on the ground from top position, and not many people are going to be capable of stopping him from taking them down. He does need to be careful against Cavalcante, though, because it is unlikely that he is going to come out ahead in many striking exchanges. For Lawal to win he is going to have to strike enough to set up his takedowns without getting lured into trading shots toe to toe.

I think that this matchup favors Lawal, stylistically. Both men have finishing potential in the standup, although Cavalcante is the more skilled and well-rounded striker, but I don’t think Cavalcante has an answer to Lawal’s takedowns and top control. I expect Lawal to capitalize on Feijao’s lack of takedown defense and work him over from inside the guard for the majority of this fight, eventually overwhelming him for the TKO stoppage.

Prediction:  King Mo Lawal via third round T/KO.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Middleweight Championship bout: Ronaldo Souza vs. Tim Kennedy

Odds:  (-295 Souza /+235 Kennedy )

The semi-main event is a big middleweight showdown between grappling ace Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza and tough, well-rounded army veteran Tim Kennedy. Kennedy has a very complete game, with good striking, wrestling, and ground work, but Jacare has some of the best jiu-jitsu in the sport, so Kennedy is going to have his hands full.

It would be almost impossible to overstate how good Jacare’s submission game is. From every position, he is a constant threat to finish the fight, and he is extremely good at working one submission into another into another until he can lock something in and put his opponent away. The rest of his game is still coming along, although in recent fights his standup has looked fairly crisp. He is not a dangerous striker by any means, but he isn’t totally lost in the boxing game like some other competitive jiu-jitsu tryouts. The most important thing here is going to be his ability to get the fight to the ground. His wrestling is not dominant and Kennedy is fairly solid, so he is going to have to be tricky if he wants to get this fight on the floor and avoid getting boxed around. Don’t be surprised if he opts to simply pull guard and try to work sweeps from his back.

Tim Kennedy is no slouch in the submission game himself, having finished half of his victories with submissions and having fought some very tough submission fighters and survived, including Jason “Mayhem” Miller, who Kennedy fought twice and beat once. In fact, Kennedy has never been finished by submission in his entire career. An army veteran with a very well-rounded skill set, Kennedy is one of the toughest guys in the Middleweight division to finish, or even to take off his game. The key to him winning this fight is versatility. He can’t make the mistake of trying to out-grapple Jacare. Instead, he needs to try to work his range standing, stuff takedowns, and maybe surprise Jacare with a few takedowns of his own.

If this were a three round fight, I would give Kennedy a very good chance of landing enough shots and controlling the action enough to earn a decision win, but in a five round fight I think his chances of avoiding Jacare’s submissions are pretty low. Eventually Jacare will find a way to tie Kennedy up on the ground, probably in the later rounds, and earn the submission victory.

Prediction:  Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza via round four submission.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…