Tag: General MMA betting

Heavyweight bout: Fedor Emelianenko vs. Fabricio Werdum

Odds:  (-550 Fedor / +350 Werdum )

In the main event, world number one heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko will put his ranking on the line against Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum.  While many are looking at this as little more than a tune-up fight for Fedor’s eventual showdown with Strikeforce champion Alistair Overeem, Werdum has an extremely dangerous ground game that it would be very unwise to overlook.

Werdum, a veteran of both PRIDE and UFC, has fought a lot of top-level competition in his career, and has quite a few big wins, including one over Fedor’s brother Aleksander.  He is one of the most accomplished and decorated grapplers ever to compete in Mixed Martial Arts, and he has done a fantastic job of translating his jiu-jitsu to MMA.  He also has pretty good boxing offense, puts together combos very well, and has solid punching power.  Thusfar, what has prevented him from becoming a top heavyweight is his lack of standup defense, his suspect chin, and his mediocre takedown offense.  Still, he is a very dangerous fighter who can dole out punishment in striking exchanges and has the ability to catch anyone on the ground.

Fedor is, far and away, the most dominant fighter in the history of the sport.  He has great submissions, jaw-smashing punching power, great takedowns, especially from the clinch, and the type of ground and pound that causes opponents to wake up in the middle of the night rethinking their career path.  Perhaps what is the most remarkable about Fedor’s career to date is that every single time he has ever been in trouble, he has turned it up a notch and ended the fight.  He was getting outboxed by Arlovski before leveling him with a big shot, bruised up by Bret Rogers before doing the same thing, and was famously rocked badly by Kazuyuki Fujita before recovering and ending the fight 30 seconds later.  One thing you always have to worry about with Fedor, though, is cuts.  He has shown a tendency to get cut over his career, and so he is going to have to be careful about protecting himself.

Put simply, this is Fedor’s fight to lose.  Werdum has the edge in the submission game, but so did Noguiera, and Fedor turned his face to mush from the guard on two different occasions.  The most important thing is that Werdum’s wrestling and takedowns just aren’t good enough to put Fedor on his back, which turns this into a kickboxing match.  That said, Werdum doesn’t make it out of the first round.  Fedor by T/KO.

Prediction:  Fedor Emelianenko via first round T/KO.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Middleweight bout: Scott Smith vs. Cung Le

Odds:  (+260 Smith /-340 Le )

The second match of the evening is a compelling rematch between former champion Cung Le and powerful, iron-chinned slugger Scott Smith.  Their first meeting was a one-sided destruction for the majority of the fight, with Le putting on a striking clinic for the first two and a half rounds.  Smith hung in there, though, and eventually caught Le with a huge shot for the win.  Will lightning strike twice, or will Le finish what he starts this time?

Scott Smith is, far and away, one of the toughest men on the planet.  He comes by his “Hands of Steel” nickname honestly, because his punches pack a wallop.  He could just as easily be called “Chin of Steel”, though, because his ability to absorb punishment and keep coming forward is pretty much unrivaled in the entire sport.  He doesn’t have much in the way of a ground game, and he is not the most technical fighter in the world, but his combination of spectacular punching power, toughness, and a never-say-die attitude make him an extremely formidable opponent.

Cung Le is also a dominant striker.  He lacks the kind of one-punch power that Smith has, but he is a much quicker and more technical striker who can put together ruthless combos with both punches and kicks.  He also has pretty solid takedowns, although his game once it hits the ground is not excellent.  The interesting question coming into this rematch is whether he will be inspired by the fact that he lambasted Smith for the huge majority of their fight, or whether he will be more cautious due to eventually getting knocked out.

Despite Smith’s win, Le proved in the last fight that he is easily the superior striker, technically.  Smith has the kind of power that can end any fight at any second, and he proved it last time, but I just don’t think he can survive the kind of beating he took last time and make it out with another win.  I expect Le to overwhelm him again, but this time to take advantage of his openings to pile it on for a referee stoppage.  Le by TKO.

Prediction:  Cung Le takes the rematch via second round T/KO.

Featherweight Championship bout: Cris Cyborg Santos vs. Jan Finney

Odds:  (-2000 Cyborg /+1000 Finney )

In the co-main event, Women’s champion Cris “Cyborg” Santos will defend her title against tough competitor Jan Finney.  Finney’s record is not spectacular, but she is riding a four fight win streak, and after what Cyborg has done to her other opponents, Finney deserves respect just for taking this fight.

Finney, a serviceable striker with a decent ground game, has had mixed results as a professional, but is currently riding a nice wave of momentum.  It is safe to say, though, that she has never fought anyone even close to Cyborg’s level, but such a woman does not even exist.  Not to take anything away from Finney, but Cyborg has already cleaned out the top of the women’s division, and so now they are having to fish for anyone even willing to fight her.

Cyborg is almost scarily dominant, combining absolutely crushing Muay Thai with pretty good takedowns and submissions.  Obviously, her best work is done on the feet, but she has also proven that she can rearrange an opponent’s facial features from top position on the ground.

Finney deserves all the respect in the world for stepping up and taking this fight, but she is doomed from the get-go.  Cyborg is far more physically imposing, not to mention better at pretty much every aspect of the fight game, so this is going to be a brutal, one-sided destruction.  Cyborg by T/KO, round 1.

Prediction:  Cris Cyborg via first round T/KO.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…