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TUF 11 Predictions: Hamill vs. Jardine

Here are my fight predictions for The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale and quick picks for the Preliminary Card.
Main Card
Matt Hamill over Keith Jardine via Unanimous Decision.

Hamill vs. Jardine Prediction page.

Court McGee over Kris McCray via Unanimous Decision.

McGee vs. McCray Prediction Page.

Chris Leben over Aaron Simpson via T/KO.

Leben vs. Simpson Prediction Page.

Spencer Fisher over Dennis Siver […]

Here are my fight predictions for The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale and quick picks for the Preliminary Card.

Main Card

Matt Hamill over Keith Jardine via Unanimous Decision.

Hamill vs. Jardine Prediction page.

Court McGee over Kris McCray via Unanimous Decision.

McGee vs. McCray Prediction Page.

Chris Leben over Aaron Simpson via T/KO.

Leben vs. Simpson Prediction Page.

Spencer Fisher over Dennis Siver via Unanimous Decision.

Fisher vs. Siver Prediction Page.

TUF 11 Preliminary Card Quick Picks

Sportsbook.com Odds

Rich Attonito over Jamie Yager via second round T/KO.
John Gunderson over Mark Holst via submission
Brad Tavares over Seth Baczynski via first round T/KO.
Kyle Noke over Josh Bryant via submission.
James Hammortree over Chris Cammozzi via unanimous decision.
James McSweeney over Travis Browne via second round T/KO.

TUF 11 Finale: Court McGee vs. Kris McCray Prediction

185 lbs: Court McGee vs. Kris McCray
Odds: (-200 McGee / +160 McCray )
In the finals of the Ultimate Fighter Season 11, Court McGee and Kris McCray will battle it out for the famed six figure contract and a spot on UFC’s loaded roster. Both guys have good skill sets, obviously, but what makes this final […]

185 lbs: Court McGee vs. Kris McCray

Odds: (-200 McGee / +160 McCray )

In the finals of the Ultimate Fighter Season 11, Court McGee and Kris McCray will battle it out for the famed six figure contract and a spot on UFC’s loaded roster. Both guys have good skill sets, obviously, but what makes this final fight so interesting is that neither man actually made it through the show unbeaten. Both men were given second chances and made the most of it, and now they meet with their UFC futures on the line.

Kris McCray, who was part of Team Ortiz (and eventually Team Franklin), actually lost his very first fight in the house against wrestler Josh Bryant. After being given a shot at getting back in the mix, though, McCray took full advantage of his opportunity, submitting Kyacey Uscola and outpointing tough veteran Kyle Noke before avenging his loss to Bryant to secure a spot in the finals. McCray has solid boxing, good wrestling, and good submissions from the top. The only hole in his game on the show was his cardio, which allowed Bryant to push him around in their first fight when he gasses at the end of the first round. If he has been spending his off time working on his conditioning, though, he is going to be a very formidable opponent come fight time.

Like McCray, Court McGee dropped his first preliminary fight, coming out on the wrong end of a controversial decision against Nick Ring. Also like McCray, McGee made the most of his second chance, first submitting James Hammortree with a guillotine choke and then clipping his teammate Brad Tavares with a hard shot to the chin that set up a rear naked choke. McGee brings a great chin, solid boxing, determined takedowns, and solid submissions to the table, and he is going to need all of that if he wants to secure his spot in the UFC.

I think the edge in this one goes to McGee. McCray has good submissions from top position, but McGee is the better wrestler, and probably has more powerful standup as well. I expect him to control the pace and position of this fight with boxing and hard-fought takedowns en route to a unanimous decision win and a spot on the UFC roster.

Prediction: Court McGee via Unanimous Decision.

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TUF 11 Finale: Matt Hamill vs. Keith Jardine Prediction

205 lbs: Matt Hamill vs. Keith Jardine
Odds: (-150 Hamill /+120 Jardine )
Sharing top billing with the Ultimate Fighter finals is a compelling Light Heavyweight matchup between tough wrestler Matt “The Hammer” Hamill and Ultimate Fighter Season 2 alum “The Dean of Mean” Keith Jardine. Jardine is the more well-rounded of the two by far, but […]

205 lbs: Matt Hamill vs. Keith Jardine

Odds: (-150 Hamill /+120 Jardine )

Sharing top billing with the Ultimate Fighter finals is a compelling Light Heavyweight matchup between tough wrestler Matt “The Hammer” Hamill and Ultimate Fighter Season 2 alum “The Dean of Mean” Keith Jardine. Jardine is the more well-rounded of the two by far, but Hamill’s wrestling is better than any part of Jardine’s game, so this is an interesting stylistic matchup.

Keith Jardine is the proverbial jack of all trades but master of none. He has solid wrestling, good submissions, and punishing standup, but is not world class at any of those things. His standup is technical and accurate, but he lacks the finishing power of other top strikers, and while his wrestling and submissions are quality, he uses them more defensively rather than imposing his will on opponents. The other side of that coin, of course, is that Jardine doesn’t have any huge glaring holes in his game, either, which can make a huge amount of difference.

Unlike Jardine, Matt Hamill definitely has a specialty, and that is wrestling. His standup is still a work in progress, although he is not totally inept, and he doesn’t have much in the way of a submission atack. What he does have is a brutal, driving double leg takedown, smothering top control, and the ability to dole out a large amount of punishment from top position.

Jardine, who enters this fight on a tough three-fight losing streak, is going to have his hands full yet again. While he can easily outbox Hamill, he has absolutely no answer for Hamill’s dominant wrestling game, and he is going to find himself firmly planted on his back for the majority of this fight. Jardine is a tough guy, so expect him to hang around, but Hamill takes this one with a lopsided unanimous decision.

Prediction: Matt “The Hammer” Hamill via Unanimous Decision.

TUF 11 Finale: Chris Leben vs. Aaron Simpson Prediction

185 lbs: Chris Leben vs. Aaron Simpson
Odds: (+260 Leben /-340 Simpson )
In the third bout of the televised event, tough slugger Chris “The Crippler” Leben will look to derail the momentum of undefeated prospect Aaron “A-Train” Simpson. Both guys do their best work on their feet, so this one promises to be exciting if nothing […]

185 lbs: Chris Leben vs. Aaron Simpson

Odds: (+260 Leben /-340 Simpson )

In the third bout of the televised event, tough slugger Chris “The Crippler” Leben will look to derail the momentum of undefeated prospect Aaron “A-Train” Simpson. Both guys do their best work on their feet, so this one promises to be exciting if nothing else.

Chris Leben, the bad boy of Season 1 of The Ultimate Fighter, is quite a character. Luckily, though, he has the skills to back up his big persona. While he is not the most well-rounded guy in the world, he is an extremely effective and aggressive striker who uses his relentless pace and freakish cardio to overwhelm his opponents. On the ground, he is not a big offensive threat, but he does have good submission defense. Still, if he is going to win against anyone, it is going to be because of his aggression, striking technique, and punching power.

Aaron Simpson, who is undefeated so far at 7-0, is more well-rounded than his opponent. His best stuff is his striking, but he also has a solid takedown game to go with it. Against Leben, his best bet is going to be to try to work the takedowns and put Leben off his game, because in a standup fight Leben’s chin and power are going to give Simpson problems.

I think Leben is an awesome underdog pick here. Simpson is a prohibitive favorite, but he did not look very good in his last fight against Tom Lawlor, despite squeaking out the split decision victory. Leben is a very dangerous fighter in the standup, and if Simpson decides to try his luck there he is going to wind up paying the price. I expect just that to happen. Simpson will hold his own for a while, but eventually Leben will overwhelm him by continuing to move forward, catch him, and put him away with the T/KO for the big upset win.

Prediction: Chris “The Crippler” Leben via second round T/KO.

Bet on the UnderDog Leben for the Win.

TUF 11 Finale: Spencer Fisher vs. Dennis Siver Prediction

155 lbs: Spencer Fisher vs. Dennis Siver
Odds: (-175 Fisher /+145 Siver )
In what could well be the most competitive fight of the night, Lightweights Spencer “The King” Fisher and Dennis Siver will go at it in a division that is, all of a sudden, wide open. Both guys are skilled, well-rounded, and experienced, so this […]

155 lbs: Spencer Fisher vs. Dennis Siver

Odds: (-175 Fisher /+145 Siver )

In what could well be the most competitive fight of the night, Lightweights Spencer “The King” Fisher and Dennis Siver will go at it in a division that is, all of a sudden, wide open. Both guys are skilled, well-rounded, and experienced, so this has the makings of a very close back and forth fight.

Spencer Fisher, a veteran of over eight years who comes from the fabled Miletich camp, is a very tough and well-rounded fighter. His standup is crisp and powerful, he has a solid chin, good wrestling, and a very underrated submission game, although he hasn’t shown it off much recently. He has also fought some of the best fighters in the world at multiple weight classes, which is always a help.

His opponent, Dennis Siver, is also a very skilled and well-rounded fighter. After an unsuccessful first stint in the UFC, he earned his spot back, and put it to good use. Like Fisher, Siver is skilled in every aspect of fighting, but his submission game is probably a little better than Fisher’s while his standup game is probably a little worse.

Despite both guys having very solid ground games, I think this is going to be a standup war, and I think that favors Fisher. Siver is capable of pulling out some deadly, flashy offense in the standup, but Fisher’s technical and workmanlike boxing should shut him down effectively, and Fisher’s takedown defense should be good enough to keep himself off his back for most of the fight, at least. Fisher by decision.

Prediction: Spencer “The King” Fisher via Unanimous Decision.

Strikeforce “Los Angeles” – Babalu Sobral vs. Robbie Lawler Prediction

Catchweight (195 lbs) bout:Robbie Lawler vs. Renato Sobral
Odds: (+140 Sobral / -170 Lawler )
In the main event, two high caliber UFC veterans will meet in an exciting catchweight bout, as Renato “Babalu” Sobral moves down to 195 to face “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler. Babalu is skilled and well-rounded, while Lawler is one of the most prolific punchers in […]

Catchweight (195 lbs) bout:Robbie Lawler vs. Renato Sobral

Odds: (+140 Sobral / -170 Lawler )

In the main event, two high caliber UFC veterans will meet in an exciting catchweight bout, as Renato “Babalu” Sobral moves down to 195 to face “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler. Babalu is skilled and well-rounded, while Lawler is one of the most prolific punchers in Strikeforce, so this should be a very interesting fight.

Renato “Babalu” Sobral is a very dangerous fighter who has some boxing skill that he uses to complement his excellent wrestling and submissions. Even though he is a pretty decent striker, he is going to have to take this fight to the ground, because Lawler has much better technique and power on the feet. On the ground though, he should be able to work Lawler over with strikes and probably submit him, so it’s clear that his game plan is going to have to be to take Lawler down.

Robbie Lawler may be one dimensional, but that one dimension is excellent. He doesn’t have very much in the way of a ground game, although his wrestling is pretty good, but his boxing is fast, accurate, and extremely powerful. There is no question that, if he can keep this fight standing, he will knock Babalu out. Whether he can pull that off, though, is another matter entirely.

Ultimately, I think Sobral takes this one. Lawler is going to land some shots, but Babalu’s standup and chin are good enough that he will be able to set up his takedowns. On the ground he is more than good enough to control the fight, bust Lawler up, and eventually submit him. Babalu by submission.

Prediction: Renato “Babalu” Sobral via second round submission.

Bet on the UnderDog Babalu @ +140 for the Win.