Tag: General MMA betting

UFC Heavyweight Bout:  Fabricio Werdum vs. Travis Browne

Odds:  (+175 Werdum / -225 Browne )

Betting Pick:  Browne

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The main event of UFC on FOX 11 will feature a big-time Heavyweight showdown, as grappling ace Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum returns to action against Travis “Hapa” Browne. Werdum is one of the division’s most prolific grapplers, but has been sidelined for over a year due to injuries. Now, he’s jumping right back into the deep end against Browne, a huge fighter with a surplus of knockout power and a vastly underrated ground game.

Fabricio Werdum is clearly one of the best Heavyweight grapplers in the UFC. His takedowns are solid if not spectacular, but his positional control and ability to work for submissions from a variety of positions make him an extremely dangerous fighter. He’s never going to be one of the best strikers in the world, but his boxing has developed steadily to the point that he is technically sound and surprisingly effective. That said, getting into a boxing match with Travis Browne is a long way from a winning strategy in this fight. Werdum shouldn’t be afraid to use his boxing at all, but it needs to be done trying to set up takedowns. If he stands in front of Browne too long, he’s in for a rough return.

Travis Browne is one of the UFC’s most exciting up and coming Heavyweights. He’s a huge guy with massive knockout power and a ground game that, while not showcased much, is surprisingly effective. There is little to no chance of him outgrappling Werdum, but if he can use his wrestling and jiu-jitsu defensively to force a kickboxing match, he will be in a good position to win. He will be the bigger, stronger, taller fighter and will also enjoy a bit of a reach advantage, so as long as he fights smart and doesn’t leave Werdum any obvious openings, this could be a good matchup for him.

Ultimately, I don’t think Werdum is going to be able to take Browne down consistently enough, or do enough with the takedowns he does get, to win this fight. Browne is a substantially scarier puncher, and if Werdum can’t force most of this fight to the ground, he’s going to pay eventually. Browne by T/KO.

Prediction:  Travis Browne by third round T/KO.

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UFC Middleweight Bout:  Michael Bisping vs. Tim Kennedy

Odds:  (-2000 Bisping / +160 Kennedy )

Betting Pick:  Bisping

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In the main event of the Ultimate Fighter Nations finale, long-time UFC veteran and Ultimate Fighter alum Michael “The Count” Bisping will square off with Armed Services veteran and Strikeforce standout Tim Kennedy in a featured Middleweight bout. These guys are both savvy, versatile veterans who are hard to finish and have dynamic offensive skillsets, so this has all the makings of an extremely competitive and entertaining main event.

Tim Kennedy, if his combat experience didn’t make it clear enough, is one of the toughest fighters on the UFC roster. He’s been around the block and has fought some top opponents, and he always acquits himself well. What makes Kennedy so dangerous is that his offense doesn’t really have any holes. You would’t call him one of the world’s best strikers, wrestlers, or grapplers, but he can hold his own with almost anyone no matter where the fight plays out. He’s also a very durable guy who is capable of absorbing considerable punishment in order to secure his own offense.

Michael “The Count” Bisping has had a very successful UFC career at both Light Heavyweight and Middleweight. While has taken some notable losses, they were all to top-level fighters and, incidentally, all to guys taking the recently-banned Testosterone Replacement Therapy. Bisping tends to be a bit underrated, I think, probably due to the fact that he is primarily a striker, but lacks punching power. Nevertheless, he has great technique, hand speed, and accuracy, and tends to overwhelm opponents with volume punching in a fashion similar to Nick Diaz, who previously defeated Kennedy. Bisping’s wrestling and grappling are never going to be his primary threats, but he has improved steadily throughout his career in both areas.

These are two skilled veterans with fairly similar fight styles, so this should be a competitive fight. It seems unlikely that either guy will be able to finish the other. That said, I don’t think Kennedy is on the same level as Bisping, and that should become increasingly clear as the fight goes on. I don’t see Kennedy being able to beat Bisping to the punch or being able to take him down consistently. I expect Bisping to score points at will en route to a unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Michael Bisping by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Heavyweight Bout: Roy Nelson vs. Antonio “Rodrigo” Nogueira

Odds: ( -140 Nelson / +110 Nogueira )

Betting Pick:  Nelson

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In the main event of UFC Fight Night 40, former PRIDE and UFC Heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira will try to recapture some of the glory of his heyday as he squares off against long-time veteran Roy “Big Country” Nelson. Nogueira is one of the most accomplished and versatile Heavyweights in the history of the sport, but a long career of fighting through brutal punishment has finally taken its toll. Nogueira is a shell of what he once was, and while he still has amazing technique, he is going to have a really difficult time dealing with the physicality and versatility of Nelson.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira cemented himself as a legend in the sport with his world-class grappling, slick technical boxing, granite chin, and unstoppable fighting spirit. No one in the history of MMA has survived more vicious beatings than Nogueira only to snatch victory from his opponents. While he still has his grappling prowess and outstanding boxing technique, he has lost more than a step in his footwork and his chin isn’t the unbreakable rock it used to be. Against Nelson, he is going to have his hands full. He is probably the quicker and more technical boxer, but he utterly lacks punching power and Nelson has a spectacular chin. Similarly, he is probably the more technical grappler, but Nelson’s size and vastly superior wrestling render that fact meaningless. If this fight does go to the ground, it will be with the massive Nelson on top, and even a grappler as good as Nogueira will have a lot of trouble working underneath Nelson, who is a rather accomplished grappler in his own right.

Roy “Big Country” Nelson is, to me, one of the more underrated Heavyweights in the UFC. His giant, rotund physique and his ridiculous mullet make him seem like kind of a joke, but there are not many Heavyweights with his mixture of punching power, grappling prowess, durability, and deceptive speed. While he certainly doesn’t fit the physical mold of a modern UFC fighter, he has turned his bulk into a weapon, using it to maintain physical control from top position and wear his opponents out. On the feet, he isn’t as good as Noguiera at using the jab or at putting together quick combos, but he has infinitely more knockout potential. He just has to be careful not to let Nogueira sit back and outpoint him with jabs and technical boxing.

As sad as it makes me to type this, this seems like a mismatch at this point. Noguiera is a legend, but a shot one. Nelson may never reach the heights Nogueira did early in his career, but right now, Nelson is the physically and technically superior fighter. In a boxing match, he has the chin to eat Nog’s punches and set up his own howitzers. Noguiera doesn’t have the wrestling to take Nelson down, and Nelson is absurdly hard to submit when he is on top of you using his belly to pin you down and set up that dominant crucifix position. No matter where this fight plays out, I think Nelson has a sizable advantage, no pun intended. Ultimately I expect a boxing match. Noguiera will show glimmers of the technique that made him such a great fighter, but ultimately Nelson’s chin and punching power will prove too much for him. Nelson by T/KO.

Prediction: Roy “Big Country” Nelson by third round T/KO.

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