Tag: General MMA betting

UFC Welterweight Bout:  Jake Shields vs. Demian Maia

Odds:  ( +220 Shields / -280 Maia )

Betting Pick:  Maia

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In the main event of the evening, star grapplers Demian Maia and Jake Shields will go head to head in a featured Welterweight showdown. These are two of the most accomplished submission grapplers in the 170 pound division, and both are more than capable of testing the other’s strengths. Shields is the more physical of the two, but over the years Maia has grown into a very capable boxer who has the potential to exploit Shields’ glaring weaknesses in the striking game.

Jake Shields, the former Strikeforce champion, is an undeniably prolific submission grappler who is more than capable of hanging with anyone in the world on the ground. Shields has great defense and submissions from a whole variety of positions. After a disastrous start to his UFC stint that saw him lose two of his first three fights with the only win being a robbery against Martin Kampmann, Shields has settled back down and is coming off a close decision over Tyron Woodley. There’s no question that Shields can get the job done when it comes to grappling. It’s his standup that raises big questions. Maia is hardly the kind of striker opponents have nightmares about, but he is fast and technical. Shields is going to have to be careful not to let Maia dictate how the fight plays out by outboxing him.

Demian Maia is riding a three-fight win streak since dropping down to the Welterweight division. At 185, he was effective because of his quickness and technique. Now that he isn’t fighting generally larger opponents, he has more freedom to let his hands go and try to dictate the pace of fights instead of employing a reactive defensive strategy. Maia was and is a terror on the ground, but it’s his boxing that has put his career back on the right path. He will always depend primarily on grappling, but he has quick hands and accurate punches. Shields is useless on his feet, so if the ground game turns into a stalemate, Maia can always stand up and box him around.

I don’t see much hope for Jake Shields in this fight. His success depends on overwhelming opponents with his grappling prowess, something he has found it increasingly difficult to do. Maia is at least on the same level as Shields when it comes to grappling, if not slightly better. There’s no question at all that Maia is the more effective boxer. I don’t see where Shields can win this fight. He’s never going to be safe on the ground and he can’t fight Maia standing up. Ultimately, I think Maia will dictate how the fight plays out and punish Shields with strikes en route to a unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Demian Maia by Unanimous Decision

To Add a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv Odds. Check out my review of Bovada here…

UFC Light Heavyweight Title Fight:  Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson

Odds:  ( -700 Jones / +450 Gustafsson )

Betting Pick:  Jones

Bet on this fight at Bovada

In the main event of UFC 165, Light Heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones will defend his 205 pound crown against heavy-handed Swede Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson. With his freakish reach, punsishign striking, dominant wrestling, and effective submissions, Jones has cemented himself as one of the most dominant champions in the world. Gustafsson, though, is riding a very impressive six-fight win streak on the strength of his powerful striking and underrated ground game. GUstafsson has proven himself superior to most of the division’s other top contenders, but Jones represents a unique challenge for any fighter.

Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson has been on a tear since dropping a fight to Phil Davis back in 2010. He’s currently riding the momentum of six straight wins with four finishes, all against reputable opponents. In his last fight, Gustafsson thoroughly manhandled former PRIDE kingpin Mauricio “Shogun” Rua en route to a lopsided unanimous decision. One of the reasons Gustafsson is so dangerous is because he can finish fights in any position. His striking is his most effective weapon, but he has effective submissions from a variety of positions as well. The real question is how well he will handle Jones’ massive reach advantage and superior physical strength. Gustafsson has the power and technique to give Jones problems as long as he doesn’t get overwhelmed and physically controlled.

Jon “Bones” Jones has established himself firmly atop the UFC’s Light Heavyweight division. Some fighters are world-class in terms of effective striking, some have world-class submissions or wrestling, and some are solid in all areas but excel at none. What makes Jones so scary is that he is quite likely the best wrestler, striker, and submission grappler in the 205 pound division. When you add his outstanding physical gifts to his stellar technique in all areas, you have a monster who is a nightmare matchup for just about anyone. Jones can beat anyone in the world at their own game, it seems, but he can also completely impose his will on a fight and destroy any attempts at resistance his opponents can offer. In this fight, I think Jones would be wise to use his physicality and wrestling and to keep Gustafsson in bad positions. While Jones has faced some dangerous strikers, his chin has never really been sorely tested, and Gustafsson has more than enough firepower to secure a knockout if Jones gets reckless.

Ultimately, I think Jones is just too much for Gustafsson or anyone else in the division right now. One of the things that makes Gustafsson so scary is his well-roundedness. Unfortunately for him, Jones is equally well-rounded but better at basically everything. Gustafsson is a tough guy and should make this a fight, but ultimately Jones will overwhelm him and catch him. Jones by submission.

Prediction:  Jon “Bones” Jones by third round Sub.

To Add a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv Odds. Check out my review of Bovada here…

On Wednesday, October 9, 2013, the UFC Fight Night series returns to Brazil as UFC Fight Night 29 hits the airwaves live. In the main event, two of the world’s premier Welterweight grapplers will square off as Demian Maia faces Jake Shields. Both of these guys have world-class submission games and have proven their skills against top competition, so this has all the makings of a classic ground war.

Main Card:

Jake Shields vs. Demian Maia

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Shields
• Maia

Betonline.com Odds

• Shields
• Maia

Erick Silva vs. Dong Hyun Kim

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Silva
• Kim

Betonline.com Odds

• Silva
• Kim

Rony Jason vs. Jeremy Stephens

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Jason
• Stephens

Thiago Silva vs. Matt Hamill

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Silva
• Hamill

Fabio Maldonado vs. Joey Beltran

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Maldonado
• Beltran

Raphael Assuncao vs. TJ Dillashaw

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Assunacao
• Dillashaw

Preliminary Card:

Rousimar Palhares vs. Mike Pierce

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Palhares
• Pierce

Hacran Dias vs. Rodrigo Damm

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Dias
• Damm

IldemarAlcantara vs. Igor Araujo

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Alcantara
• Araujo

Yan Cabral vs. David Mitchell

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Cabral
• Mitchell

Iliarde Santos vs. Chria Cariaso

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Santos
• Cariaso

Allan Patrick vs. Garrett Whiteley

Bovada.Iv Odds

• Patrick
• Whiteley

In the semi-main event, Erick Silva will test his mettle against Dong Hyun “Stun Gun” Kim in another featured Welterweight matchup. Both of these guys are hovering around the middle of the 170 pound pack, so a win here is crucial to put themselves in position to keep moving forward toward a title shot. Rounding at the card are a featherweight showdown pitting Rony Mariano Bezerra against Jeremy Stephens and a third Welterweight clash between Matt Hamill and Thiago Silva.

Make sure to Check back with us closer to fight night as I will have updated UFC Fight Night 29 Odds plus Fight Predictions.  And to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv Odds

UFC Light Heavyweight Bout:  Ryan Bader vs. Glover Teixeira

Odds:  ( +325 Bader / -450 Teixeira )

Betting Pick:  Teixeira

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In the main event of UFC Fight Night 28, dangerous Brazilian striker Glover Teixeira will try to move one step closer to a Light Heavyweight title shot against heavy-handed wrestler Ryan “Darth” Bader. The last time Teixeira lost a fight was all the way back in 2005, but it is worth noting that his level of competition has not been as high as it could have been. Bader, for his part, has proven himself a dangerous gatekeeper at the top of the 205 pound division with his mix of wrestling, top control, and power punching. If Teixeira wants to take the next step toward a title shot, he’s going to have to find a way to keep this fight standing while also avoiding Bader’s big haymakers.

Ryan Bader is a tough and dangerous wrestler with a surplus of punching power. He’s not the most technical boxer in the division, but he throws with ill intent and all of his punches have fight-ending potential. His best work, though, comes when he takes opponents down, controls them from top position, and bruises them up with ground and pound. Against Teixeira he is definitely going to need to find a way to get this fight to the ground as early as possible. He certainly has knockout power, but I don’t think he stands much of a chance if he has to stand and trade with Teixeira for an extended period.

Glover Teixeira was a highly-regarded striker before making his UFC debut, and since his first appearance in the Octagon has shown why his skills were held in such high regard. Teixeira’s striking has an amazing mix of power and technique, and he overwhelms opponents with accuracy and hand speed. One thing that makes this fight interesting is the fact that Teixeira’s ability to work off his back hasn’t been tested at a high level. Bader clearly has the wrestling prowess to take Teixeira down, so it will be interesting to see how he responds to being put in a bad position.

Ultimately, I think this matchup favors Teixeira. He hasn’t faced a wrestler like Bader in recent years, but he has a lot of experience fighting larger and stronger opponents which should help him deal with Bader’s grappling and physical strength. On the feet, this shouldn’t be much of a contest. Teixeira is really strong in the standup, and I think the fear of his punching is going to make Bader more tentative when setting up his takedowns. In the end, I don’t like Bader’s chances of lasting the full length against a puncher of Teixeira’s ability.

Prediction:  Glover Teixeira by T/KO.

To Add a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv Odds. Check out my review of Bovada here…

UFC Lightweight Title Bout:  Ben Henderson vs. Anthony Pettis

Odds:  ( -125 Henderson / -105 Pettis )

Betting Pick:  Hendo

Bet on this fight at Bovada

In the main event of UFC 164, UFC Lightweight champion Benson “Smooth” Henderson will look to defend his title against Anthony “Showtime” Pettis in a highly anticipated rematch. The last time these two met, Pettis ruined Henderson’s final WEC appearance by thoroughly outstriking him and putting a cherry on top of his lopsided win in the form of a cage-walking head kick that will probably appear on highlight reels 50 years from now. Henderson has proven, though, that he has what it takes to rule the 155 pound division with an iron fist, and avenging that shocking loss will go a long way toward cementing him as a dominant champion in the vein of Georges St. Pierre.

Anthony “Showtime” Pettis more than lives up to his nickname with his hyper-aggressive and creative offensive skill set. Pettis is equally adept at submitting opponents and knocking them out, but it is his highlight-reel head kicks that have made him one of the most fun to watch Lightweights in the world. There is no question that Pettis has what it takes to hang with any 155 pounder in the world. He already proved that he is more than a match for Henderson on the feet. If he can neutralize Henderson’s clinch game and wrestling like he did last time, there is no reason he can’t leave the Octagon a UFC champion.

Benson “Smooth” Henderson is a huge, physically dominant Lightweight who can hurt guys with striking, wrestling, or submissions. Since defeating Frankie Edgar twice to earn and retain his title, he has also dispatched Nate Diaz and pulled off a narrow win against Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez. What makes Henderson so dangerous is that he can not only take a fight over and impose his will, he can also react to his opponents, find openings, and bust them wide open. Last time, he let Pettis’ dynamism and creative striking put him off his game, and he wasn’t the aggressive, take-charge fighter who has stormed to the top of the Lightweight division.

This is a tough fight to call. Henderson has proven that he is a dangerous champion who is ready for opponents of all sorts, and seems to have improved by leaps and bounds since making his UFC debut. That said, Pettis made Henderson look extremely vulnerable last time they fought, and he certainly hasn’t regressed as a fighter. This is going to come down to Henderson’s wrestling in the end. If he can get his takedowns working and put Pettis in disadvantageous positions, I think he should be able to win easily. However, if Pettis can stay upright and put his striking to good use, he clearly has what it takes to outbox and outkick Henderson. Ultimately, I think Pettis’ first win was a huge upset, and I don’t see lightning striking twice. Henderson is a smart fighter and he knows what mistakes he made against Pettis last time, and I don’t see him making those same mistakes again. I think Henderson will come out determined to get his wrestling game established early. Once he’s established his dominance of positioning, it should be smooth sailing going forward. I predict Henderson retains his title with a hard-fought unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Ben “Smooth” Henderson by Unanimous Decision.

To Add a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv Odds. Check out my review of Bovada here…