Tag: General MMA betting

UFC Light Heavyweight Bout:  Shogun Rua vs. Chael Sonnen

Odds: ( +115 Rua / -145 Sonnen )

Betting Pick:  Sonnen

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In the main event of UFC Fight Night 26, former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua will square off against loud-mouthed grappler Chael Sonnen in a featured 205 pound bout. Shogun has lost a step from his prime, but is still one of the most dangerous and aggressive strikers in the UFC Light Heavyweight division. Sonnen, fighting at Light Heavyweight after a move back up from 185 pounds, is best known for his trash talk and press conference antics, but is nevertheless one of the most effective and dominant wrestlers in the sport. This is an old-school striker versus grappler matchup, and it will be interesting to see whether Sonnen has what it takes to plant the bigger, heavier Rua on his back.

During his PRIDE heyday, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua was one of the most frighteningly effective strikers the sport has ever seen. His incredible technique, ability to hurt opponents with all four limbs, and ruthless aggression made him one of the sport’s biggest stars. Since coming to the UFC, he hasn’t enjoyed the same world-beating success, but he is nevertheless a dangerously competent striker who has the ability to finish any fighter he faces. Rua has great punches, effective kicks, and a devastating clinch game rivaled only by former Middleweight champion Anderson Silva. Rua’s ground game has always been severely underrated, but he definitely doesn’t want to spend much time on his back underneath Sonnen, who has made a career out of controlling opponents from top position. On the feet, this fight is not even a contest, and Shogun will destroy Sonnen in routine fashion. All he has to do is keep this fight upright and he will leave a winner.

Chael Sonnen became a star largely due to his over-the-top pro wrestling-style trash talk, but anyone who thinks he can’t back it up in the Octagon hasn’t been watching MMA for long. Sonnen is arguably the sport’s most effective wrestler outside of Welterweight kingpin Georges St. Pierre, and basically no one he has ever fought has found a way to keep him from securing takedowns. Sonnen’s boxing is actually much underrated, but there’s no question that he thrives when he can take opponents down and pummel them from top position. Securing takedowns isn’t a guaranteed win against a grappler of Rua’s ability, because submission defense has always been Sonnen’s achilles heel. Still, he has an infinitely better chance of winning this fight from top position than he does engaged in a standup war with Shogun.

This is a tough fight to call. If it plays out on the feet, there is no doubt that Shogun will dominate Sonnen thoroughly with superior technique, power, speed, and accuracy. Even if Sonnen can get Shogun down, he is going to have to spend five rounds defending triangle chokes and armbars, something that proved his undoing in his first meeting with Anderson Silva. Still, though, I think Sonnen is an excellent underdog pick here. Rua is an effective grappler, but he’s not as good off his back as Silva is. I think that Rua’s aggression is going to be his undoing. If he presses the issue too hard, he is leaving himself vulnerable to Sonnen’s takedowns. I think Rua will get his shots in, but Sonnen should be able to control position for enough of this fight to earn the unanimous decision .

Prediction:  Chael Sonnen by Decision.

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UFC Light Heavyweight Bout: Lyoto Machida vs. Phil Davis

Odds: ( -375 Machida / +285 Davis )

Betting Pick: Davis

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In the semi-main event of UFC 163, former Light Heavyweight champion Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida will look to put himself in position for another shot at the 205 pound title against dangerous wrestler “Mr. Wonderful” Phil Davis. This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, pitting Machida’s accurate, technical boxing against Davis’ dominant wrestling and top control. There is no question that Machida is the vastly superior striker and that Davis is the vastly superior wrestler, so this one is going to come down to which guy can force his own game plan on his opponent.

Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida fought his way to the top of the Light Heavyweight division with amazing footwork, technical boxing, accurate punching, great handspeed, and nearly impenetrable striking defense. From a pure technique standpoint, Machida is one of the best strikers in UFC history. The only knock against the former champion is that he prefers to backpedal and counterpunch instead of fighting aggressively. Still, there is no question that Machida is one of the hardest fighters in the sport to get a hold of. He frustrates opponents by continually slipping out of range and then makes them pay with crisp counterpunching when they push forward. Machida actually has a quite underrated ground game as well, but against Davis it’s imperative that he not fight off his back for any extended period. Machida’s road to victory is through forcing a boxing match, and if he can stay upright this is his fight to win.

“Mr. Wonderful” Phil Davis has cemented himself as a dangerous player at the top of the Light Heavyweight division with his speed, physicality, effective wrestling, and dominant top control. Davis is a decent boxer, but nowhere near the same level as Machida. If Davis wants to come out of this fight win a win and potentially position himself for a title shot in the future, he is going to have to find a way to put Machida on his back early in this fight and keep him there. Machida’s ground game is good, but can’t keep him in this fight if he has to spend significant amounts of time underneath Davis. Davis has solid submissions, punishing ground and pound, and excellent positional control which should allow him to dictate this fight if he can get Machida down.

Basically, who wins this fight depends on where the fight plays out. If Machida can spend most of the fight on his feet, he will wear Davis out with superior footwork and punish him with his trademark counterpunching. If Davis can secure takedowns, he should be able to keep Machida from getting his offense going and do enough to earn the decision. Ultimately, I think Davis is a great underdog pick here. Machida has great punching power, but Davis is very durable and athletic, and should be able to absorb a bit of punishment in order to close the distance. I think Davis will find a way to put Machida on the mat, and should be able to control position and do enough damage to earn a narrow decision win.

Prediction: Phil Davis by Decision.

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UFC Featherweight Title Bout: Jose Aldo vs. Chan Sung Jung

Odds: ( -750 Aldo / +475 Zombie )

Betting Pick: Aldo

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In the main event of UFC 163, Featherweight kingpin Jose “Scarface” Aldo will look to continue his dominant title reign against fan favorite “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung. Aldo is a monster who is riding a 15-fight win streak and has a stranglehold on the 145 pound title, but the Zombie enters this fight riding an unbeaten 3-0 record inside the UFC and is a notoriously durable and effective fighter. This is an interesting style matchup in that Aldo is a dominant striker while Chan Sung Jung does his best work on the mat. The guy who can impose his own game plan in this fight will be the guy who leaves with the championship belt and the title of world’s greatest Featherweight.

Jose Aldo has become one of the most effective and devastating strikers in the world at any weight. He is a master of the sprawl and brawl style made famous by sluggers such as Chuck Liddell and Mirko Cro Cop, using his wrestling defensively to keep fights standing where he can punish opponents with punches, kicks, and knees. His grappling is nothing to scoff at, either, but there is no question that it’s his striking that opponents are primarily concerned with. Against Zombie, he should enjoy a significant striking advantage in terms of speed, technique, accuracy, and power. If he can keep Zombie from putting him in any disadvantageous positions, he should have more than enough in his arsenal to thoroughly dominate a standup fight.

“The Korean Zombie” is a fan favorite for his aggressive style and never-say-die attitude. One of the division’s toughest and most durable fighters, he entered the UFC on a bit of a skid, having lost three of his last four. Since entering the Octagon, though, he has gone on a tear that included highlight reel submissions of highly-regarded contenders Leonard Garcia and Dustin Poirier. Against Aldo, Zombie is going to have to fight smart to avoid getting lambasted in the striking. He’s not helpless on his feet, but he is also not in the same league with Aldo. It is imperative for him to force a ground fight here and to put Aldo in disadvantageous positions as quickly as possible.

Basically, this fight comes down to whether or not Zombie can consistently take Aldo down and control the position. Unfortunately for him, I think that will prove too tall an order. Aldo is a master of keeping himself out of trouble and picking his opponents apart on the feet, and I don’t see this fight ending any differently. Zombie will make it competitive, but as he starts to fade in the championship rounds, Aldo will take control of this fight and secure yet another T/KO victory.

Prediction:  Jose Aldo by fourth round T/KO.

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UFC Welterweight Bout:  Rory MacDonald vs. Jake Ellenberger

Odds:  ( -240 MacDonald / +190 Ellenberger )

Betting Pick:  Ellenberger

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In the semi-main event of UFC on FOX 8, up and coming contender Rory “Ares” MacDonald will look to move one step closer to the top of the Welterweight division against tough veteran Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger. MacDonald is one of the most exciting young prospects in the world, but he is going to have his hands full with the experienced, powerful Ellenberger. Can MacDonald’s youth and technique trump Ellenberger’s experience and power? Only time will tell.

Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger is a long-time veteran of the Welterweight division who has used his physical strength, effective wrestling, and powerful punching to keep himself relevant near the top of the division for years. He isn’t the best in the world in any one particular area, but he’s an effective and durable fighter who puts it all together well and doesn’t have any glaring holes in his game. There is no question that he doesn’t have the same natural gifts that MacDonald has, but he is bigger, stronger, and has a lot more experience, which makes him a formidable opponent for anyone, much less a young, up-and-coming fighter.

Rory MacDonald is, in the eyes of many pundits, the future of the Welterweight division. MacDonald is the prototypical Mixed Martial Artist, equally adept at ending fights with strikes or submissions. He’s a solid wrestler with a ton of natural talent and athletic ability. The only real question mark at this point is his chin. Carlos Condit blew him up with punches in his one professional loss, and while Ellenberger may not have Condit’s striking prowess, he has more than enough punching power to turn MacDonald’s lights out if he catches him with a clean power shot.

This is a tough fight to call. I don’t think anyone doubts that MacDonald has a substantially higher ceiling than Ellenberger does, but that does not necessarily make MacDonald the better fighter right now. He has all the talent in the world, but he is still a bit raw, and I think he might have a tough time dealing with Ellenberger’s size advantage and superior physical power. I think this is going to be a hard-fought battle, but ultimately I think Ellenberger’s wrestling and punching power will allow him to pull off a significant upset via unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Jake Ellenberger by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Flyweight Tilte Bout:  Demetrious Johnson vs. John Moraga

Odds:  (- 500 Johnson / +350 Moraga )

Betting Pick:  Johnson

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In the main event of UFC on FOX 8, Flyweight champion Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson will put his title on the line against dangerous grappler John Moraga. Johnson has firmly cemented himself atop the 125 pound ranks, but Moraga enters this fight with only one loss as a professional and riding a seven-fight win streak. Moraga isn’t as well-known as some of Johnson’s other recent challengers, but he is a dangerous contender who is capable of matching Johnson strength-for-strength, which makes this an interesting style matchup.

John Moraga, a long-time veteran of Rage in the Cage, has looked like a monster since making his UFC debut. In his first fight he destroyed Ulysses Gomez with elbows and hard punches, and then pulled off a third-round guillotine choke over tough competitor Chris Cariaso in his second Octagon appearance. What’s interesting is that Cariaso is, by far, the toughest opponent Moraga has ever faced, and Johnson is in a whole different class from Cariaso. Moraga has handled every step up in competition admirably, but this is less a step than a gigantic leap. What Moraga has going for him in that his strengths are very similar to Johnson’s, which means he is unlikely to get completely overwhelmed. Still, this is the toughest challenge of Moraga’s career, and if he wants to leave a champion he is going to need to turn in a career performance.

Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson was the last man standing after UFC’s stacked tournament to crown the company’s first-ever Flyweight champion. In his last fight, he manhandled highly-regarded Flyweight John Dodson, who is incidentally the only fighter ever to hand Moraga a loss. Johnson is a very slick fighter who doesn’t overwhelm his opponents so much as he whittles them down, using superior speed, technique, footwork, and cardio to make sure that he is never in a disadvantageous position. Johnson’s best work comes on the ground, but he isn’t going to be able to fight recklessly considering Moraga’s submission prowess.

These are two fighters with similar styles, but Johnson has more experience against better competition and spent a large portion of his career fighting substantially larger opponents. To put it frankly, Moraga strikes me as a sort of knock-off version of Johnson. They have similar strengths and similar styles, but Johnson is better, more experienced, quicker, and more effective in almost every way. I don’t think he will annihilate Moraga, but he should be able to control all five rounds en route to a unanimous decision victory.

Prediction:  Mighty Mouse by Unanimous Decision.

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