Tag: General MMA betting

UFC Middleweight Bout:  Tim Kennedy vs. Roger Gracie

Odds:  ( -155 Kennedy / +125 Gracie )

Betting Pick:  Kennedy

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In a featured Middleweight matchup, submission expert Roger Gracie makes his UFC debut against another Strikeforce veteran in Tim Kennedy. This has all the makings of an epic ground battle, since both of these guys are known for their grappling prowess. There is no question that Gracie has the superior jiu-jitsu pedigree, but Kennedy has much more professional experience putting his grappling to use inside the cage and is the much more complete Mixed Martial Artist. Will Kennedy introduce another roadbump on Gracie’s path toward becoming a Mixed Martial Artist or will Gracie’s submission wizardry prove too much for the Armed Services veteran?

Roger Gracie, despite being relatively experienced in MMA competition, is nevertheless one of the most decorated jiu-jitsu players in the Middleweight division. There is no question that Gracie has what it takes to hang with anyone in the world in a pure grappling fight. Unfortunately for Gracie, he isn’t going into a pure grappling fight. He’s about to take on Tim Kennedy, a tough and experienced veteran with an impressive submission arsenal of his own and a much better-rounded overall game. If Gracie wants to succeed in his UFC debut, he’s going to have to find an answer for Kennedy’s superior striking and wrestling and hope that his superior technical jiu-jitsu can carry the day.

Tim Kennedy is one of the toughest veterans on the Strikeforce roster, and is finally getting his first chance to showcase his skills on the world’s biggest stage. Kennedy is a true Mixed Martial Artist, with solid boxing, wrestling, and submissions in his repertoire. He isn’t among the best in the world at any one thing, but he is tough, durable, and doesn’t have any huge holes in his style. Gracie is better at jiu-jitsu than Kennedy is at anything, but there is no question that Kennedy is the more versatile and experienced fighter of the two.

This is an interesting matchup in that it pits a jack of all trades against a master of one. Gracie’s jiu-jitsu, on paper at least, is more impressive than any aspect of Kennedy’s game, but Kennedy has well-developed skills in areas of fighting where Gracie is still woefully ineffective. This fight comes down to whether or not Gracie has what it takes to submit Kennedy off of his back, I think. In a standup fight, Kennedy will box circles around Gracie, and I don’t think Gracie has much chance of obtaining dominant position on the ground. If this fight does go to the ground, it will be Kennedy controlling the position. I don’t think Gracie is going to have any luck at all getting his offense going. Both standing and on the ground, he’s going to be fighting off his back heels, so to speak, and Kennedy is too talented and too experienced to let himself get caught. I think Kennedy earns himself an easy unanimous decision in his UFC debut.

Prediction:  Tim Kennedy by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Middleweight Title Bout: Anderson Silva vs. Chris Weidman

Odds:  ( -240 Silva / +190 Weidman )

Betting Pick:  Silva

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In the main event of UFC 162, UFC Middleweight Champion and reigning pound-for-pound king Anderson “Spider” Silva will defend his crown against undefeated contender Chris “All-American” Weidman. Silva has proven himself the most dominant champion in the history oif Mixed Martial Arts and has dismissed almost every challenger to his title with routine ferocity. Weidman, though, represents an interesting stylistic challenge to Silva because of his dominant grappling and a submission game that will allow him to work safely from top position, unlike previous title challenger Chael Sonnen. Does Weidman have what it takes to dethrone the champion, or will he join the long list of victims Silva has been steadily building?

Chris Weidman, a Matt Serra student, is without a doubt the most exciting young Middleweight prospect in the world. Weidman is a perfect example of the new breed of Mixed Martial Artist: fast, athletic, and technically sound in all areas of the fight game. Weidman isn’t the most dominant striker in the world, and certainly isn’t going to win a kickboxing match against Silva, but he has solid enough technical boxing that he isn’t going to get immediately overwhelmed. What makes Weidman so dangerous is the fact that he is a dominant wrestler with a very effective submission game who can move from standing to the ground and back with relentless efficiency. There are no huge holes in his game, and his ground game has to cause Silva some worries. If there is one hole in Silva’s game it is his takedown defense, and guys who can mix in takedowns with their striking game have a solid chance at putting Silva on his back.

Anderson Silva’s accomplishments don’t really need much review. He is, far and away, the most successful and dominant champion in the history of Mixed Martial Arts. His effective, creative striking game has confounded nearly every opponent he has ever faced and his submissions are hugely underrated. Silva is a nightmare in the striking game and, even when he is put in a disadvantageous position, has more than enough jiu-jitsu to turn the tide of a fight, a fact which Chael Sonnen learned to his dismay in their first meeting. Silva is just as capable of pulling out a come-from-behind win off his back as he is of dominating a fight from the opening bell. Against Weidman, the only thing he needs to worry about is the wrestling. If he can make Weidman pay for his takedown attempts, there is no way Weidman can survive long in an extended standup exchange.

There is no question that Chris Weidman is the future of the Middleweight division, but Anderson Silva is still the present. I expect Weidman will put on a good show and test Silva’s weaknesses in the early rounds, but Silva is very wily off his back and hard to finish. The biggest thing working against Weidman here is that every round starts standing. Even if he can get Silva down early, if he can’t finish the fight Silva is going to get another crack at his jaw the next round. I find it unlikely that Weidman will finish Silva on the ground in the early rounds, and as sweat builds up and takedowns and ground control become more difficult, I think the advantage will switch firmly to the champion. Weidman will make it a contest, but eventually Silva will show why he is the champion to begin with. Silva by T/KO.

Prediction:  Anderson “The Spider” Silva by third round T/KO.

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