Tag: General MMA betting

UFC Light Heavyweight Bout:  Dan Henderson vs. Rashad Evans

Odds:  (+110 Henderson / -140 Evans )

Betting Pick:  Hendo

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The main event of UFC 161 features a clash of champions as former UFC Light Heavyweight champion “Suga” Rashad Evans squares off with former two-division PRIDE FC Champion Dan “Hollywood” Henderson. Both of these guys are experienced veterans who have spent years fighting the best opponents in the world. What makes this even more interesting is that this is a mirror match in terms of styles. Both of these guys are primarily wrestlers who are known for supplementing their grappling with huge power punching. This is as competitive a main event as you could hope for, and should provide some very interesting action.

“Suga” Rashad Evans first burst onto the UFC scene as a cast member on The Ultimate Fighter reality show, and has since cemented himself in the upper crust of the 205 pound division. Evans, an accomplished collegiate wrestler, has always been a dangerous grappler who is equally adept at securing takedowns and using the clinch to control his opponents against the cage. Over the years, he has added a devastating power-punching game to his repertoire, which makes him a dangerous opponent for anyone. Evans can use the threat of knockout punches to set up his takedowns more easily and the threat of takedowns to create holes in his opponents’ striking defense.

Dan “Hollywood” Henderson is a true legend of the sport. Having captured belts in two weight classes during his PRIDE FC heyday, Henderson has continued his success in UFC. In terms of pure takedown ability, I think Henderson lags slightly behind Evans, but he is much more accomplished at both using the clinch to control the action and at landing knockout punches. Henderson’s huge, looping power punches have become the stuff of legend, and probably cause some fighters, like Michael Bisping, to wake up in cold sweats in the middle of the night. Against Evans, I think henderson will enjoy a pretty sizable advantage in terms of effective punching, but he is going to have to fight smart and not let Evans tire him out before taking the fight over in the later rounds.

This is a tough fight to call because these are two very accomplished fighters with such similar styles. Evans has better takedowns, but Henderson is the more devastating striker and is better fighting from close range. I think this is going to be a very competitive fight, but ultimately I think Henderson’s ability to bully Rashad in the clinch and set up big power punches on his way out will make the difference. I think Henderson does enough here to earn a unanimous decision victory.

Prediction:  Hendo by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Heavyweight Bout:  Antonio Nogueira vs. Fabricio Werdum

Odds:  ( +230 Nogueira / -300  Werdum )

Betting Pick:  Nogueira

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In the main event of the evening, grappling ace Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum will square off against former PRIDE FC champion Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira. The last time these two met, all the way back in 2006, Nogueira did enough to earn a unanimous decision nod. Since then, though, age has begun to catch up with Nogueira while Werdum has significantly improved his striking game, so this should be a much more competitive and hard-fought bout than their PRIDE Final Conflict showdown.

Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum is, without a doubt, one of the Heavyweight division’s most effective and dangerous grapplers. Unlike many Heavyweights, Werdum has submissions from every position and can turn the tide of a fight instantly with his slick grappling transitions. He will always be a grappler first, but over the years he has developed effective, heavy-handed boxing and can hold his own in extended striking exchanges. Against Nogueira, who is stylistically similar and even more experienced, it’s going to come down to which guy can mix the striking and grappling more effectively and who can avoid making a big mistake first.

Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira is, without a doubt, one of the most accomplished Heavyweights in the sport’s young history. Nogueira was the prototype for a Heavyweight submission grappler, and he remains one of the most effective submission artists in the business. In addition, he has supremely effective technical boxing, although he is noticeably short on punching power relative to other Heavyweight strikers. One of Noguiera’s best traits is his iron chin, which is extremely difficult to crack for even the best and most powerful strikers.

These are two experienced Heavyweights with years of top-flight experience who can get the job done both standing and on the ground. In a grappling fight, I think this is something of a stalemate. Werdum clearly has better pure jiu-jitsu, but Nogueira is a match for anyone inside the confines of an MMA fight. In terms of striking, Werdum is definitely the more powerful of the two while Nogueira will enjoy a clear edge in technique. Ultimately, I think Nogueira’s superior technical boxing and accuracy will be the difference-maker here. Their ground games will cancel each other out while Nogueira’s chin will allow him to survive Werdum’s superior punching power. Ultimately, I think Nogueira will consistently beat Werdum to the punch and do enough to earn a unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Big Nog by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Heavyweight Title Bout:  Cain Velasquez vs. Bigfoot Silva

Odds:  ( -800 Velasquez / +500 Silva )

Betting Pick:  Velasquez in a Parlay Bet

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In the main event of UFC 160, Cain Velasquez will look to defend his newly-recaptured UFC Heavyweight Title against former Strikeforce kingpin Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva. These are two large, bruising Heavyweights who are both adept at hurting opponents with their striking and their grappling, so no matter how this plays out it has all the makings of a brutal and competitive main event.

Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva was one of Strikeforce’s top players at Heavyweight, and he has parlayed his Strikeforce success into an impressive UFC stint. The last time he squared off against Velasquez, in May of 2012, Silva was destroyed with strikes about midway through the first round. If he wants his second shot at the champion to end better, he is going to have to find a way to neutralize Velasquez’s striking and impose his own will on the fight. Velasquez is an accomplished wrestler and grappler, but if Silva can find a way to plant him on his back, he has all of the tools necessary to dominate Velasquez in top position. Silva is a punishing striker, but he lacks the accuracy and hand speed that make Velasquez so formidable. If he wants to leave a champion, he is going to have to find a way to force Velasquez into a disadvantageous position.

UFC Heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez earned his title back with a crushing, one-sided decision over Junior dos Santos, the man who originally defeated him to capture his title. Velasquez is one of the most formidable offensive fighters in the UFC Heavyweight division, and is equally dangerous when letting his hands go or using his wrestling to dictate the position of fights. Standing or on the ground, Velasquez is a constant threat to finish fights at all times. He’s already proven that his striking is going to be difficult for Silva to handle, so the most important thing here is for him to control his aggression and fight smart. Velasquez’s chin can be exploited, and if Silva can wind up one of his huge power punches, the champion could be in trouble. If he utilizes his speed, though, and refuses to allow Silva to secure takedowns, he will be in a great position to successfully defend his title.

As compelling a matchup as this is, I don’t see any real reason to expect it to end differently than their first fight. No one can doubt that Silva is a dangerous fighter with fight-ending potential standing and on the ground, but Velasquez is just better at everything and also substantially faster and lighter on his feet. I don’t see a way for Silva to avoid being beaten to the punch consistently and outworked on the feet. Eventually, Velasquez’s power will prove too much, and the champion will defend his title with a T/KO victory.

Prediction:  Cain Velasquez by third round T/KO.

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UFC Heavyweight Bout:  Junior Dos Santos vs. Mark Hunt

Odds:  ( -450 Dos Santos / +325 Hunt )

Betting Pick:  Dos Santos

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In the semi-main event of UFC 160, former UFC Heavyweight champion Junior “Cigano” dos Santos will look to rebound from his disappointing title loss as he squares off against resurgent Heavyweight slugger Mark Hunt. These are two of the most willing and able strikers in the UFC Heavyweight division, and so this fight promises serious fireworks. Both of these guys are more than happy to stand in front of each other and throw shots until one of them is unconscious, which is exactly what fans want to see from a big Heavyweight slugfest.

Mark Hunt, the former PRIDE standout and K-1 World Grand Prix champion, looked to be at the end of his career a few years ago. Since debuting in the UFC, though, Hunt’s granite chin and dynamite punching power have allowed him to re-establish himself as one of the sport’s most commanding Heavyweight strikers. Hunt’s gameplan is not a mystery. He is going to stand in front of his opponents and willingly eat punches in order to get off his own power shots. Against dos Santos, who is just as adept a knockout artist as Hunt is, it’s going to come down to who has the better chin or who lands a perfectly clean shot first.

Junior “Cigano” dos Santos rode a wave of momentum all the way to the UFC Heavyweight title, but came crashing down to Earth when he was physically manhandled in his rematch with Cain Velasquez. Despite the destruction he suffered at Velasquez’s hands, though, dos Santos is one of the sport’s most dangerous knockout artists, with a mix of hand speed, accuracy, and punching power that cannot be matched in the Heavyweight division. Velasquez already showed that dos Santos’ takedown defense can be used against him, now it is Hunt’s turn to see if fire can be fought with fire.

Mark Hunt is notoriously difficult to knock out, but if anyone can pull it off, it’s dos Santos. As skilled a striker as Hunt is, I don’t see a way for him to successfully trade punches with dos Santos, who has just as much punching power and far more stamina, speed, and athleticism. I think Hunt will handle the punishment like a warrior, but there’s only so long any fighter can survive with a guy like dos Santos consistently beating them to the punch. Eventually, the speed and stamina disadvantage will prove insurmountable, and dos Santos will get back into the win column via T/KO.

Prediction:  Junior Dos Santos by second round T/KO.

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